Tim Wakefield

I like Tim Wakefield.

But he can't buy any luck. Since the start of the 2006 season, he's 17-20. In his 20 losses, the Sox have scored 19 runs. (That's presumably the number when he's pitching, sportswriters are apparently too lazy to figure out the total runs they've scored in his losses, which is 44. Forty four runs in twenty games is pretty crappy!)

His ERA's up to 4.69, which isn't great, but it's not too bad for a #4 starter. This outing will put him at 119 innings, which is 14th in the American League, terrific for a #4 starter.

I hate to jinx his streak, but he also has a decision in every start this year. That's just odd.

Julio Franco

The Mets released Julio Franco, who's had himself a rather impressive career.

I read that early in his career he faced Jim Kaat, who pitched to Ted Williams. That's pretty cool. I remember Jim Kaat from the 1982 Cardinals. Apparently he accumulated 75 innings that year, although I just remember him coming in as a lefthanded specialist to get one batter out here and there. It looks like he actually started two games in 1982 too. Kaat also had a rather impressive career. Twenty-five years in The Show, and he finally won the World Series in season 24.

Beckham

I like Beckham. By all accounts, he's a great teammate, a very down to earth guy.

Will he Transform Soccer in America? Beats me. He can't help but raise the profile of the MLS.

I pay more attention to soccer than basketball these days. I watch some of the Champion's League games in Europe, and as many of the USA games as I can. I haven't paid much attention to MLS, but I will watch next Saturday when the Galaxy play an exhibition against Chelsea.

Sox Salaries

I read something today that this is the last season for Schilling, Mike Lowell, and Matt Clement (whoa, was that ever a disaster!), and the Sox clear about $30 million off the books.

Now this is good news. Lowell is having a great year, though he often cools down in the second half, and I was wrong about him in the past. I can't see him getting another $9 million, assuming they resign him.
I don't think Schilling's going to get $13 million again; his last few seasons haven't been deserving of that kind of contract and his last really good year was in 2004 (when he was very good).
It's fair to say that Clement's $8 million is completely wasted money and he ain't coming back.

Now they just have to be intelligent about how they spend.

Iraq

Even the All Star Game can't distract me completely from the ongoing disaster and tragedy of Iraq.

We're going to lose.

I'd love it if Iraq became a stable democracy, a beacon for human rights and democracy in a region without either.

But it's not going to happen. Not this year, not next, nor the year after that. There are enough people in Iraq who don't want peace they they'll get their wish. It is an ongoing tragedy, but there is nothing we can do about it. Does anyone outside the White House really think that Iraq is going to be a functioning democracy in six months? One year?

If we are going to fail, I'd prefer to fail sooner than later.

We're going to pull out before the job is done. If not this year, than next, or the year after. What we're doing now isn't working. The Democratic party gave up supporting this war long ago. More and more Republicans, to their credit, are finally starting to admit what everyone knows, that it's not working. Most recently, Senator Domenici has joined Republican senators Lugar, Voinovich, Warner, Hagel, Alexander, Gregg, and Gordon Smith in calling for us to pull out.


Unfortunately, history gives us plenty of examples of regions of the world that were drenched by blood in what we would now call a civil war. How long did it take Italians (who were all the same religion!) to form a democracy? Germany? Northern Ireland? The Balkans?

It's time for us to declare victory and bring our troops home.

Retrosheet and copyright

Someone (Cho, presumably? due to the emphasis on pitch count and the Cubbies) commented to my last post with a few interesting details about Warren Spahn's last start.

I did note that Retrosheet.org claims to have copyrighted this information.

Ehhhhhh, not so much. This is where my real life kicks in.

It so happens that I know something about copyright. Retrosheet can't copyright a box score, any more than Major League baseball can copyright a statistic. You can't copyright a fact. The baseball case was just argued in June, so it hasn't been decided yet. It's not surprising the MLB is retreating from its initial claim that it had copyright on statistics and has moved to claiming copyright on logos. And if MLB doesn't own the right to statistics, Retrosheet.org doesn't either....

It's the All Star Break

A reasonable time to look at my predictions.

And dang, was I ever wrong about Zito. Does "disappointing" even begin to describe his season? Look at his stats. I'm not sure why his ERA has skyrocketed. His WHIP is about the same as last year, he's on pace to give up *fewer* homers, and hitters actually have a lower batting average against him (which I assume is often true when one moves from the American to the National league) this year. He's now most expensive #5 starter in history.

While I was off on Zito, I sure was right on J.D. Drew. That was a dumb signing from the getgo. He had a great year in 2004, but it's not too hard to see a trend since then. Mistakes are more painful when they're blindingly obvious.

I was also right on Edmonds. He was an obvious mistake. He's been awful this year, and they're stuck with him for another year after this one.

Clemens

I'm obviously not a big fan of Clemens.

However I am a big fan of baseball history. And my dad's favorite pitcher was Warren Spahn. Today Clemens got his 350th, the first to do so since Spahn in 1963. Somehow (what are the chances?) the guy who caught Spahn was named Joe Torre. Really, what are the chances? It's a funny game....

There's a pretty good chance that Maddux will get to 350 next year, if he stays healthy, but after that we'll be lucky to see anyone else get to 350. For now, though, I hope Clements keeps pitching. Bring on Kid Nichols!

Giants

I went to the Giants game tonight, which Pedro Feliz won in the 11th. To his credit, Bonds played all 11 innings and scored the winning run (though it wasn't close).

It was cool to see Lincecum. He's got electric stuff, striking out the side in the top of the first. But not such great control (four walks and 115 pitches in 7 innings). There were plenty of 95 mile-per-hour balls way high out of the strike zone.

The Giants need to make some smart decisions this winter. Next year, with no Bonds and no All Star game, attendance will drop even more.

It must have been Costume Night tonight. Many members of the (announced) crowd of 41,140 came dressed as empty seats.

Baseball Players

It's not news that baseball players aren't brain surgeons. They're also great at spewing out a lot of garbage in interviews.

But still. When Jeter was asked about the possibility of Clemens getting career win 350 yesterday (he lost to Colorado, though he pitched well) he said the following:

"It's longevity and consistency, I don't think you'll see anyone else get to that number."


Ehhhhh, Derek ol' buddy, ever heard of a guy named Maddux? You may be interested to learn that he's won 339 games in his career. It's pretty reasonable to think that he'll have a chance at "that number", assuming he stays healthy.....

Giants

I went to the Giants game on Tuesday. It was not a very interesting game, which is surprising considering the storied rivaly between the Giants and the Blue Jays (have I mentioned that I hate interleague play?).

However, when one is at the game, and when one sees the Giants play, one is struck by how poor their hitters are. Seriously, look at the starting lineup; it stinks.

Roberts........222
Schierholtz...250
Klesko..........315
Bonds...........287
Durham........250
Molina.........303
Feliz.............256
Vizquel.........231
Lowry..........074

I know, I know, batting average isn't a great measure of offense. But the numbers are similarly grim for on base percentage and slugging percentage. The Giants have one good hitter, Bonds. Benjie Molina and Ryan Klesko aren't bad, but that's it. Dave Roberts, who I love (sorry Schlamp), should not be leading off, and it only gets worse at the bottom of the lineup.

As I've previously noted, it's a shame because the Giants pitching, especially their staff, is terrific. Arguably the best in baseball.

Clemens-Unit

I was talking with someone about my earlier post about the win differential between Clemens and Maddux, and how that may have influenced Clemens to come back again. (I'm keeping track; the gap is at 11 after Clemens' win yesterday.)

I learned that another legacy Clemens is perhaps thinking about is strikeouts. Turns out that Randy Johnson recently tied him in career strikeouts, although Clemens went back ahead of him with his win yesterday. Assuming everyone stays healthy, it'll be tougher for Clemens to stay ahead of Johnson. Clemens just isn't a strikeout pitcher anymore. It looks like he made an adjustment in 1999 when he signed with the Yankees and his strikeouts dropped. He's been losing ground every year since 1997, except for 2003, when Johnson only made 18 starts.

The numbers:


Note: Nolan Ryan is still waaaaaaay ahead at 5714. He's got nothing to worry about.

Whoo-hoo!

Of course, I support all Michigan sports teams. Today in baseball Michigan beat #1 Vanderbilt 4-3 in the 10th. The losing pitcher for Vandy was David Price. I happened to read about him this morning--according to Sports Illustrated he'll be the first player taken in the baseball draft.

Inevitable

It had to happen.

Giants

For the sake of their future, the Giants really need to get rid of Bonds after this season. Or pay him a lot less. (He's mentioned that he'd like to get to 3000 hits, which would require him to play next year.)

He's costing the Giants $16 million this year, and even with Bonds in the lineup, they're only 10th in runs.

Which is a shame, because their pitching (uhhhh, the starters anyway) is good, and they have the potential for a dominating rotation in a year or two. Consider:

• Matt Cain has had some hard luck, but his ERA is almost a run under the National League average.
• Tim Lincecum is living up to the hype, so far.
• Noah Lowry (!) has been better than Cain.
• Matt ("Lazarus") Morris is the staff ace.
• Oh, and then there's Zito. I have to think he'll come around, even if for now he's the most expensive #5 starter in baseball history.

That, folks, is a rotation. For 2009, the Giants *MUST* ditch Bonds and get some hitting, because if these guys pitch anything like this, they're going to be very impressive. The team is perfectly set up to move past Bonds, but to do so they actually have to move past him.

(Oh, and Russ Ortiz, thanks for playing. Welcome to long relief, until someone gets hurt.)

300

Not the movie.

I'm mildly obsessed with career wins, specifically 300 game winners. Presently Clemens has 348 and Maddux 337, a rare instance where two pitchers in the top ten are active.

Barring injury, Glavine will almost certainly get to 300 this year--he's at 295 right now and is pitching well. The Very Large Unit is at 282. He won't get there this year. Maybe next year, if his back will let him.

Who's next? No one, not for a while. If we look at active 200 game winners, none of them will get to 300. Mussina's 38, and I doubt he has 59 wins left in him, considering the last four seasons he won 57. He appears to be running out of gas.

Boomer, Jamie Moyer (quick, who knew he had more wins than Pedro or Schilling?), Kevin Brown (why is he on the "active" list?), Kenny Rogers, Pedro (love him!), and now Smoltz, who may have had a chance if he didn't spend four years relieving, but now is making a very strong case for the Hall of Fame...none of them are going to get there.

Looking further down the list, the next likely candidate is Tim Hudson, who's a long 176 wins away. It's possible that he could average 15 wins for the next twelve years. I think a better bet is Roy Oswalt. He's won a lot of games already, but he has to get on a team that score some runs for him. The rest of the list--Buerle, Halladay, Sabathia, etc.--is so far away that speculation is pointless, no matter how good Johan Santana is. It's at least ten years away, probably more. So after Glavine and Randy Johnson, there won't be any 300 game winners until, oh, 2018, maybe 2020.

Al Mamaux?

Eddie, dude, tell me you didn't go through the list of all baseball players ever to unearth Al Mamaux.

On the other hand, he (Mamaux) had a very respectable career, was traded for Casey Stengal and he played with Ruth, Gehrig, and Wally Pipp. He's worth discussing, and I hereby elevate him above Mike Maddux.

Pending future discoveries, I think we can agree on:

1. Greg Maddux
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Harvey Haddix
4. Milt Wilcox (I should have remembered him)
5. Claude (Jimi) Hendrix
6. Al Mamaux
7. Mike Maddux
8. Double X

Haddix beats Wilcox due to more wins and also his legendary Greatest Game Ever Pitched, which coincidentally is also the Greatest Game Ever Pitched And Lost.
Both beat Jimi, who is dinged due to suspicious gambling.


Incidentally, Foxx gets bonus points for being in a poem, though inevitably Gehrig got the best stanza.

Pedro Martínez

As I've mentioned before, I love Pedro. I think he's great. Physically, he's Greg Maddux, except he throws threw 95 miles per hour.

However, I'm really happy the Sox didn't sign him to the four year deal that the Mets did. I hope he comes back and is great, but if he gets back in August, he'll get at *most* maybe ten starts in the regular season. So in the first three years of his contract, he'll have 31, 23, and 10 (at best) starts. That's not many starts for $13.5 million per year.

Just as important as signing the right players is *not* signing the wrong players. This was a good contract not to sign.



Uhhh, except for the Yankees. They can afford to blow all kinds of money and it doesn't make as much of a difference.

Michigan Football Scheduling

I like it when Michigan plays a tough football schedule. As I've noted before, I'm embarrassed that we're playing Appalachian State this year, although playing Notre Dame and Oregon makes for a respectable out of conference schedule.

Now comes word that we've scheduled Toledo next year. Blech. What's the benefit of MAC schools? Either we clobber them, and get no respect, or they stay close, and we look even worse. (The third alternative, actually losing, though horrifying to contemplate, is surely inevitable.)

But don't we have to schedule weaklings to have a shot at the national title game? USC has done fairly well these last few years. Consider it's upcoming schedule:

2007: IDAHO, Nebraska, Notre Dame
2008: Virginia, OHIO STATE, NOTRE DAME (hell of a home schedule!)
2009: SAN JOSE STATE, Ohio State, Notre Dame

Note also that the PAC 10 has nine conference games, so their schedule is more impressive than ours off the bat. No MAC schools here. Kudos to USC, and shame on us.

Jerry Falwell

Lately I've tried to avoid politics and focus on baseball and similar more intellectual somesuch, but this obituary (?) speaks so eloquently that I can't help myself.

Christopher Hitchens can be, ahem, somewhat over the top as a writer, although sometimes he's right on target.

My favorite quotes:

...media riffraff who allowed Falwell to prove, almost every week, that there is no vileness that cannot be freely uttered by a man whose name is prefaced with the word Reverend.

and the first sentence, which Hitchens surely worked on to make incendiary:

The discovery of the carcass of Jerry Falwell on the floor of an obscure office in Virginia has almost zero significance, except perhaps for two categories of the species labeled "credulous idiot."

Michigan Homerism

Braylon Edwards was a great wide receiver at Michigan, even if it was a little frustrating the way he was always good for one drop per game.

I don't know how he is in the NFL, but I was very impressed at this. Sure, he's rich, but there are plenty of people who are a lot richer than he is who aren't putting up a million dollars. And this could really do some good, if he gets 100 kids to college. He's clearly serious about this.

Note that this is on top of the $500,000 he gave to the Michigan athletic department to endow a scholarship. (Braylon's dad, Stan Edwards, also played for Michigan. Note his excellent brown three piece suit in the photo gallery.)

He makes me proud to be a Michigan fan. It's almost enough to make me watch the Browns again. Ehhhh, not really.

X

Yesterday's post got me thinking. Not to get all Bill James, but there can now by no doubt that Maddux is the greatest pitcher in baseball history whose last name ends in x.

Obviously, the previous titleholder was Sandy Koufax, who, or all of his brilliance, was good only for six years.

Other contenders, off the top of my head, include Harvey Haddix, and Greg's brother Mike Maddux. Am I missing anyone?

Great Pitchers

Greg Maddux threw a 96 pitch complete game tonight for his third victory of the year. That puts him at 336 career wins, tenth in history behind, uhhh, Tim Keefe. If he stays healthy, and if the Padres score enough runs, he's got a decent shot of passing Keefe this season.

Meanwhile Clemens has 348 wins, and will pick up a few more this season. This is, by definition, rare. I can't imagine there will ever again be a time when two of the ten all time winningest pitchers are simultaneously playing. (If Maddux gets seven more wins, it'll take 342 to even make the top ten, and in this day and age I don't see anyone getting to that point ever again.)

Because Clemens and Maddux have such a good overlap, we can compare their win totals. Clemens started in 1984, Maddux in 1986. This chart shows Clemens' lead, which was 59 wins in 1991 and has been shrinking ever since:


I have no idea whether it's true, but it wouldn't surprise me if this was at least part of Clemens' motivation to come back again. He wants to be the greatest pitcher of his generation, and that's a bit tougher to justify if someone else of his generation has more wins....

Nope, no need of Clemens

I'm not saying that Sox must have Clemens to get to the playoffs. But if Josh (à) Beckett's blister problems are going to resurface, it starts to look a little goofy to have said"We don't need him."

You can *always* use more pitching. Always always always. Ahem.

Fremont A's

Are the A's really going to move to Fremont? I always figured this was a bargaining position to put pressure on Oakland. I didn't think they were really serious.

Maybe they are. I guess the thinking is that it gets them closer to San Jose. But it takes them a whole lot farther from San Francisco and Oakland. It's so convenient to BART to A's games. There's no chance I'm going to drive all the way down to Fremont to catch a game.

I think it'd be a mistake to move. Sure, their attendance will increase if they get a new stadium. The Coliseum stinks, and Mt. Davis was a bad addition. But attendance would also increase if they built it in Oakland, and I have to think that if they built it near BART, they'd get more people in the long term.

Browns. Sigh.

I was once a huge Browns fan, but after Art Modell moved the team, I haven't watched a single NFL regular season game. I watch the Super Bowl for the ads, but that's it.

In theory I still want the Browns to do well. Then I heard that they drafted Brady Quinn. Ugh. I don't watch the NFL, but I do like college football. I'll say this for Quinn: he was quarterback at Notre Dame, and he has a great name for a quarterback at Notre Dame.

But he's not very good, especially for a player coached by supposed offensive genius Charlie Weis. He played three good defenses last year: Michigan, USC and LSU, and lost all three. Quinn was awful against Michigan. Once we got pressure on him, he was wildly inaccurate.

It seems to me that if he was rattled by Michigan, SC, and LSU, it's going to get a lot worse in the NFL. Those three defenses are pretty good, but NFL teams are going to be a lot faster. I'd be happy if he turns out to be an NFL QB, but I never understood the hype to start with, and I sure wasn't convinced by watching him play poorly as a senior.

It's easy to ignore the NFL when the one team I would care about stinks.

Warriors! (?)

I went to the Giants game last night, where the Rockies walked Bonds thrice and got him out once.

Amusingly, the Warriors mascot was there. While the Giants mascot just looks stupid, the Warriors guy ain't so bad.

I'm prepared to follow the herd and jump on the (crowded) Warriors bandwagon. Go Warriors!

(At least until the end of the season. Then I'll go back to not caring about the NBA.)

Giants

Well the Giants are over .500, which is an improvement.

But their fundamental problem is their lack of runs. I believe that runs are pretty important in baseball. Bonds has been clobbering the ball lately, but their overall offense still stinks. If he gets hurt, they're really in trouble.

Their pitching has been great. Now they just need to score.

More on baseball costs

Cho makes a good point, that baseball is still cheaper than other pro sports. It's also far cheaper than college football. When I was at Michigan, students tickets (i.e. the cheapest ones) were $50 apiece, and you had to buy the whole season. Taking a family of four to a Michigan football game is surely well over $300 these days. (Taking a family of four to a Michigan basketball game, ehhhh, perhaps a little less....)

Or consider the movies. If tickets are $9 apiece, and one buys four sodas and four containers of purported popcorn, it could easily cost $60 to see a movie.

Dang

The Yankees have had a bunch of injuries this year, but I get the sense that had Kei Igawa (!) not come out of the pen to shut the Sox down today, the whole team would have crumbled.

That would have been sweet.

Baseball Costs

Every year they come out with a new Team Marketing Report, which chronicles the cost of attending a baseball game for a family of four. It adds up the cost of two adults tickets, two child tickets, four hot dogs, two sodas, two beers, two caps, one program, and parking.

Every year sportswriters uncritically accept this number and wail that baseball is "out of reach for the average American". It is a lot of money. "$287 to attend a game at Fenway, that's absurd!"

It's also completely ridiculous, and I have yet to read a story that points out some of the absurdity. For instance, why the two hats? They're not really part of the cost of the game. You can buy hats anywhere. For that matter, why the two beers? I stopped drinking beer at baseball games years ago when I tired of paying $7 for it. Why always include parking? Along with *thousands* of other fans, I normally take public transit to A's games (and I walk to Giants games). Fenway, for instance, is extremely well served by public transit. For that matter, when I do drive to Oakland, I can just park across the street for free and walk to the game--no $14 parking for me!

But do sportswriters ever bring up these factors? Nooooooo. That would require critical thinking.

However, thanks to Microsoft, it's easy to adjust their chart for a more realistic cost. The following is a modified chart, taking into account 2 adult tickets, 2 child tickets, 4 hot dogs, and 4 sodas.



Whoa! The numbers look a little different! Granted, they're still high, but it looks a lot more reasonable. And kudos to the Yankees! Cheaper than both Houston and St. Louis.

The numbers aren't perfect. The ticket prices are listed as "average"; if one was trying to save money, one might think that the better option would be to buy tickets for special promotional events. But one point of this analysis is that I'm spending about 30 minutes on it. Any sportswriter could also spend 30 minutes and come up with a more interesting story, or they could mindlessly parrot the same story about how it costs $287 to take the family to Fenway.

More Gonzales

I had to drive to a meeting today and so I listened to the Gonzales hearing. He was awful. He's in so far over his head.

Does anyone defend him now? Is it possible to defend him now? I heard him being questioned by Jeff Sessions. Gonzales insisted that he had no memory of the key November (that's November, 2006, i.e. a few months ago) meeting where they talked about who to fire. Sessions, who's not exactly a leftie, was not impressed.

Or, from another Republican Lindsey Graham: "But at the end of the day, you said something that struck me: that sometimes it just came down to these were not the right people at the right time. If I applied that standard to you, what would you say?”


I didn't like John Ashcroft because he was an ideologue. But that presupposes that he had ideas. Gonzales? No ideas.

Alberto Gonzales = Incompetent

Talking about the meetings about firing the US Attorneys, he says:

During those updates, to my knowledge, I did not make decisions about who should or should not be asked to resign.


What's with the "to my knowledge"? Might he have made decisions about who they were firing without using his knowledge? Does he have any knowledge?

(Full statement is here.)

King Felix!

Apparently Felix Hernandez will turn out allright after all. My dad was watching the game and he had to call me to tell me about it in the sixth inning.

Apparently Orel Hershiser, who knows a thing or two about pitching, was broadcasting, and said that King Felix has not one but "two Hall of Fame pitches". Not bad.


Incidentally there are always some people who whine that it can't the the World Series, because it's always just the best teams in America. ("How can it be the World Series when they don't invite teams from all over the world?") This is an exceedingly stupid complaint that's probably not worth repeating, and this game succinctly shows why. We had the second best Venezuelan pitcher on the planet beating the best Japanese pitcher on earth. (Or at least I assume he's the best; he was certainly Japan's hammer at the World Baseball Classic.) Hernandez shut down probably the two best Dominican hitters to do so. One could go on and on, but the point is made.

Giants Can't Score!

Sometimes I'm wrong. Sometimes not so much.

I had my doubts that the Giants would be able to score. But I didn't think it would be this bad.

Seven games. Fourteen runs. One win. Ouch.


I've finally moved past Pac Bell Park. Now it's the Phonebooth.

Michigan salaries

The Detroit News posted the following salaries for Michigan coaches:


This strikes me as fairly interesting. Obviously Lloyd makes the big bucks, and Red Berenson does pretty well too. I don't know anything about hockey, but Michigan was national champions in hockey two of the three years I was there, so he must be doing something right. Michigan's swimming teams are dominant, so they have to pay them well.

The new basketball coach, Beilein, isn't on there, but he's supposedly going to make $1.3 million, although that same article had Lloyd at $1.6 million, which the chart has him at "only" $1.1 million. One would think that the Detroit News might be interested in getting its own facts straight.

Note also that Michigan's president, Mary Sue Coleman, apparently makes about $725,000 per year.

Cardinals--Ugh

The Cardinals look horrendous.

It's one thing to be shut down by Tom Glavine on Opening Eve. He's done it before. It's a little disconcerning to follow that up be being shut down by El Duque.

But then last night they were two-hit by, um, John Mayne. ("John Maine, you're no El Duque.") And they gave up an RBI single to a guy who was born in the *Eisenhower* administration.

Oh, and Carpenter's hurt.

Shows what I know

Well on day 1, Bonds goes out and steals second in the first inning.

Yet another demonstration of why I'm not a major league scout.

Note: Bonds was then thrown out at the plate. His excuse is good enough that I couldn't make it up.

Michigan basketball

I guess I do care after all.

Supposedly we're going to hire West Virginia's coach, John Beilein. I don't know squat about him (or about college basketball generally), but I did see this article about his contract buyout.

The lawyer they quote, Doug Kahn, was my tax professor. In addition to being a great guy, he's a total Michigan homer.

At the end of class the day before the Ohio State game he had a confusing hypothetical about some tax issue for institutions of higher education. The hypothetical's facts were about a grad student at Ohio State and tuition or somesuch. Prof. Kahn called on someone who started fumbling around.

After a few moments of this, Kahn interrupted him: "I think you're missing the threshold issue."

...pause...

"Should Ohio State be considered an institution of higher education?"

More Bonds

Eddie thinks I'm oversimplifying and points to this site to show that moving Bonds from third to second in the batting order won't make much of a difference.

First, not to oversimplify, but Cho's wrong.

Second, wow, I consider myself a baseball fan, but that's ridiculous.

My actual argument has changed a little over the years, but it's not based on number of at bats.

Three years ago Bonds was so devastating a hitter than he would change everything in the late innings. For instance, if the Giants were down a run or two, or if the game was tied, and Bonds was up 4th in the 9th inning, the threat of having to face him with the game on the line was very disruptive. I figured that if he moved up in the lineup, it was more likely that he would get that one extra at bat in close games. For instance, if Bonds were scheduled to bat 4th in a the ninth inning instead of 6th, it would put a lot more pressure on the opposing reliever.

Today, the argument is based on his knees. It's in the Giants' best interests to have him play as few innings as possible. Realistically, there are going to be plenty of games where he's good for three at bats and then he'll leave. If they can make that third at bat happen an inning earlier, it could help him. He's sufficiently gimpy/cranky/etc. that an extra inning here and there could make a difference.

In other news, I went to the Giants game last night. The first game of the season is always fun.

(a) Zito looked good, although the game ended in about 2:10. Nobody was grinding out at bats last night.

(b) Bonds can unquestionably hit but he sure can't run. We had great seats right behind the bullpen in left field. He's capable of jogging to make a catch, but generally he just stood there. Granted it's an exhibition game, but he better hit a lot of homers because he's going to clog the bases. Not that I blame him, but if his knees are this gimpy in March, I doubt he'll play in even 130 games this year.

(c) 29,627 fans? No way, no how. MAYBE 15,000.

More Great Sportswriting

Again, by Tom Verducci. Wow, that sounds like fun.

Bonds Bats Third

Finally! The Giants should have made this decision years ago.

As I pointed out three years ago, he should be batting second. But third is a lot smarter than cleanup.

Pat Tillman

I didn't pay much attention to the whole Pat Tillman saga when it broke. I admit I figured he was a sort of uninteresting meathead football player. Sure it was a tragedy that he died, but I was disgusted by the Administration's war to start with and their hero workship of a dead man made it worse. Then I read this set of stories on ESPN. (Warning: these are long stories. But Pat Tillman's story isn't simple.) I was so, so wrong.

Having read more about him, Pat Tillman sounds like a damn interesting guy. The story is a scathing indictment of an Administration, along with the Army brass, who wanted a hero. It turns out that Tillman did what he wanted to do, but the last thing he wanted was to be their hero.

The fallout continues. It was clear from the ESPN story that the Army lied and lied again. For several generals, it looks like their lies will end their careers. So be it.

All sorts of people (the Army, the Administration, various commentators) have tried to appropriate a piece of Pat Tillman's glory. They're all wrong. He's an American hero, the rare kind who's too authentic to be pigeon-holed.


This is another case of good sportwriting. Kudos to ESPN (!) was going waaaaay outside its bailiwick to bring a story that wasn't really about sports at all, any more than Pat Tillman's life was about sports.

More Matsuzaka

Matsuzaka's durability is such an interesting topic.

The article is interesting, and it raises the possibility that everything we're doing is wrong, but I have many, many more questions.

-What's the normal training regiman for young Japanese pitchers--is he typical?
-Is it common for Japanese pitchers to have so many innings?
-What's the injury history for Japanese pitchers?
-How has his training changed over time?
-How durable are pitchers in Japan--are they all finished at age 35?
-Does Matsuzaka lift weights?
-Most importantly, is he going to blow out his arm in June???

Yesterday I brought up Nolan Ryan. But he didn't pitch much when he was young. Maybe a better example is Livan Hernandez. Something tells me that when Hernandez was growing up in Cuba, he didn't spend a lot of time worrying about pitch counts.....


Also, I complain enough about sports writers, that I should point out that this is a terrific article. Huzzah!

Baseball

As if I needed an additional reasons to be excited about baseball: Daisuke Matsuzaka! Whoo-hoo!

I can't even pick out one single highlight from the article. But 250 pitches in one game in high school? No ice? Eight pitches?

Now, in the past, I've been a strong proponent of limiting pitch counts for youg pitchers.

But this whole Matsuzaka thing is nuts. He's an insane workhorse. According to the Sports Illustrated article, maybe I'm wrong. Way, way wrong.

Or, maybe, he's just a physical freak. But Nolan Ryan didn't pitch many innings before he was 25. Maybe everything we know about training young pitchers is wrong.

I just hope that Matsuzaka doesn't blow his arm out.

Pete Rose

I have some friends (Eddie) who have, ahem, defened Pete Rose over the years. Presumably, that's now over.

Guilty, guilty, guilty.

Alberto Gonzales

It sure looks to me like Alberto Gonzales will end up resigning as Attorney General. The first Republican Senator called for it. Obviously, he's failed completely at the job.

As an admittedly partisan Democrat, I sort of hope he sticks around, though. The longer he sticks around, the louder the chorus seeking his resignation will be, and the more damage will be done to the Administration. Heh heh.

Spring Training

Ahhh, another year of spring training, another year of the same stories, another year of me complaining about those same stories.

I missed one category of story, The Guy Who's Healthy Again (Bobby Crosby, Eric Gagne).

It's so booooooring. I make it a policy to never pay attention to the games themselves, as they don't really matter. I'm ready for the real thing!

Libby

I haven't paid much attention to the Scooter Libby trial. I figured it wasn't new news--I already believed that the Administration was manipulating intelligence and engaged in character assassination.

However, I did find one thing amusing. Apparently when Cheney read Wilson's op-ed piece that started this whole thing, about Wilson's trip to Niger, Cheney wrote: "did his wife send him on a junket?" on the news clipping.

I've been to Niger. Let me assure you, that no one goes there on a junket. Aren't junkets supposed to be fun? If I ever go on a "junket", I hope it involves sitting on a hot beach in the sun with a cold fruity drink in my hand.

In Niger there's nothing to see, nothing to do. It's hot and dry. There aren't many reasons to go to Niger. And going on a junket surely ain't one of them!

Soccer

Most people don't follow European soccer too closely. I've started to pay some attention, especially this time of year, when spring training is boring. (As noted previously, I don't care about basketball.)

Anyway, I was reading something and ran across a guy with surely the longest last name in sports: Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink. Yep, that's really his last name.

Iraq's civil war

Of course, Iraq is a disaster and a huge mistake. It seems to me that the White House is still fundamentally confused about one simple fact, and until they change their minds, we're going to keep on this same path.

What's the simple fact?

The Administration still approaches Iraq like it's us versus them. It's them versus them.


The Iraqis are not really fighting against us. They're fighting each other. Until the President understands this basic fact, I don't think he's ever going to change course.

How To Lose Fans

Apparently Michigan had a good shot at beating Ohio State in Ann Arbor, but blew it.

This validates my decision, made several years ago, to stop caring about Michigan basketball. I can't remember the last time I watched a Michigan basketball game. I don't even bother entering NCAA tournament pools.

It's like how I stopped paying attention to the NFL after the Browns announced they would leave Cleveland in 1995. And like the decision to ignore the NFL, ignoring college basketball has turned out to be great. I've got plenty of things to pay attention to anyway.

UCLA beat Michigan this year and a friend of mine who's an obnoxious UCLA fan tried to give me a hard time about it. It didn't work, because I didn't care.

Am I just a fair weather fan? Well maybe. I did go to all the Michigan games when I went to school there. But it's difficult to be fired up about a team that (a) stinks, (b) is never on TV, (c) never makes the NCAA tournament (see (a) above), and (d) stinks every year.

Michigan just announced its 2007 schedule.

For the first time I can remember, we play a Division I-AA team, Appalachian State. Who? It's embarrassing. Surely we can do better.

I don't even like it when Michigan plays MAC schools. We never used to play MAC schools. I was surprised in 1995 to watch us beat Miami of Ohio. Before 1995, the last time Michigan played a MAC school was sometime before 1954 (I got bored of looking). In fact, we frequently played strong out of conference schedules. Until 1995, the last "weak" school we played was Cal State Long Beach (?????), in 1987. In every other year, we had three real opponents. In 1986, we beat Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Florida State (plus Hawaii at the end of the year).

Unfortunately, those days seem to be over. But this is ridiculous. The last time we *didn't* play a MAC school was 1999. Ugh. I think we should play Notre Dame every year, plus one tough team from a power conference like Oregon, and then fill up the schedule with teams like service academies or Cincinnati. I have to think that teams like that would come to Ann Arbor for the exposure (and money) and it would sure beat watching a MAC school.

It's been clear that *someone* on the inside was leaking the grand jury testimony to the Chronicle reporters in the Bonds steroids case.

Of all people, it was Victor Conte's former lawyer! His lawyer!

One question for Mr. Ellerman: "Excuse me, sir, how dumb are you?"

I'm going with 'extremely, extremely dumb'. It's pretty basic that grand jury testimony is confidential.

But it gets better. Not only did he leak the testimony, he then swore to the judge that he didn't do it. Ouch. And not to disparage the importance of this investigation, but this ain't exactly the Pentagon Papers here. I can't wait to hear his explanation for why he felt obliged to do this.

I see that he recently changed his law license to inactive status. That will shortly be changed again to "Disbarred."

That Barbaro horse died.

So what? You'd think it was, say, a *person*. The New York Times had an article: After 8 Months Filled By Hope, Setback Ends Barbaro’s Battle; Barbaro’s Desperate Fight for Life Gripped a Nation in Anguish; and Veterinarian Says Goodbye to a Patient (whew! good thing there's nothing else important going on in the world!).

Sports Illustrated is particularly bloviating: A Champion Until the End
Barbaro Touched Us With His Grace and Fighting Spirit; before saying Churchill Downs Could Be Burial Site For Barbaro. It goes on and on.

Ummm, remind me again, who cares?

Sportswriters, of course, love to find the Big Picture. And then write it into the ground. And beat us over the head with it. With purplish prose. The Sports Illustrated article contains the following gems:

It lost a champion whose class and bravery -- before and after his injury
-- were inspiring and lent a visceral touch to a sport that is rapidly becoming
disconnected from human emotions.

His passing, upon further review, is immeasurable.

Barbaro won the Kentucky Derby in the manner of an athlete who is evolved
beyond his peers. He cut a massive, striking pose in the Derby paddock before
the race, taller and more muscled than the others in the race.

Calling Tim Layton, calling Tim Layton. We're talking about a horse here.

Maybe sportswriters grew up when people still cares about horse racing. But I think they're congenitally unable to resist the desire to show us how Sports Affects Us All. Blech.

Well, the Sox finally signed J.D. Drew. I still think it's a mistake. Too many years; he's too old and injury prone.

However, my good friend Eric Freeman, who follows baseball far more closely than I do, assures me this is a good deal. He's got a lot more PhD's than I ever will, so I suppose I have to give him some credence. Eric, I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

The Giants also signed Bonds. I think $16 million is too much money, especially for a guy who hit 26 homers last year and can't field. Zito was a great signing, but I still think the Giants will be too old and slow.

Come to think of it, the Giants would have been better spending their money on J.D. Drew instead of Bonds.

The Chronicle just mentioned that Alberto Gonzales doesn't think the Constitution guarantees the right of habeas corpus (i.e. the right to have a court hear you out if the government throws you in jail).

(Note, the Constitution says "The privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it." Presumably, if it can be suspended, it must already exist, no?)

Wow.

Remember when he was discussed as a candidate for the Supreme Court? Not something he has to worry about anymore!

I like Bill Richardson. And I like Barack Obama. I think each one of them can win, which is what I want most of all.

Ouch. Great article in the Chronicle about the Niners guys from 1981 and their various injuries.

Reading that, and knowing nothing about his NFL prospects, I sure can't blame Jeff Samardzija for choosing baseball.

Wow. According to an article in the New York Times, different people estimate the cost of the war as between $1,000,000,000,000 and $2,000,000,000,000. (Those are trillions, but it's worth it to write out the zeros).

That's a big heap-a money. What a relief that we don't have any other important needs. Whew!

And obviously this doesn't cover the dead. We've lost 3000 Americans so far and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis are dead as well. We'll be paying for this war for decades.

Well, this is encouraging. (satire!)

We've now hanged three people in Iraq, and one of them has gone correctly.

I do think it's correct to say "we". Granted Iraq has a government, but it depends completely on our support. Without us, it would dissolve. On the Arab street, we get blamed for everything that goes wrong in Iraq. And when we leave, it will dissolve. If anyone thinks Iraq is bad now, just wait until we leave...

Does anyone in the administration notice that we're losing in Iraq?

Maybe I'm not an expert, but I fear we've already lost. We can either admit it now or admit it later, but Iraq is going to dissolve into civil war as soon as we leave.

Beckham is coming Los Angeles. I think it's great for soccer in America. He's not the player he once was, but he's still going to attract attention.

I wonder about that supposed $250 million contract. Surely it's not being paid by the Galaxy. It must include some fat endorsement money, i.e. Adidas (which outfits the Galaxy as well as Real Madrid).

Wow. If the Giants get Zito, what a coup! If anyone's worth it, I think it's Zito. He's never missed a start. Ever.

He's durable, and I assume he'll have an easier time in the National League. He could easily with 20 games the next couple of years. (I think projecting beyond that is too speculative for pitchers.)

Assuming, of course, the Giants score any runs. Last year the Giants were 15th in on base percentage, 10th in slugging. They were an old, slow team. Granted Pac Bell Park is a pitcher's park, but they still need to score. It's not a good sign when Omar Vizquel leads your team in hitting!

Finally, some good news.

The Sox are giving J.D. Drew another physical. Apparently they found something wrong with his shoulder.

Duh.

They "expressed concern at the issue"? How about expressing some concern that he's averaged 120 games over the last five years? This is a really stupid signing.


Note that in the distant past I also thought that Mike Lowell was a bad signing. Ahem.

Six years; $103 million. Is Daisuke Matsuzaka worth it?

I don't think anyone knows. I'm happy they didn't pay more. I'm guessing it'll be a better deal than the Mets' Pedro contract (4 years, $53 million).


Also, I note that Matsuzaka's had to undergo various assorted foolishness. Welcome to Boston.

I think a college football playoff is a bad idea. It's a bad idea for many reasons, but I'd like to look at perhaps the most obvious.

How many teams do you invite?

Much of the chatter in favor of a playoff is that it would be more "fair". I disagree. If we look at the historical numbers we can see why this is.

Every year, there are some teams that indisputably be included in a playoff: the major conference undefeateds. This year, Ohio State is the only such team.

Every year there is also a second tier, teams that if we invite one of them, we must invite all of them. This year, there are two such teams: Florida and Michigan.

The problem is that the number of teams in these categories fluctuates every year. Looking at the last ten years, here's a chart showing how the number of deserving teams varies:



There was some subjectivity in deciding the second tier teams, but not much. (Handy data is available at http://www.soonerstats.com/fb/polls/index.cfm and http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/byName.htm.)

So how many teams do you invite? If you have one game, you've got a great matchup in 2005, 2002, 1999, and 1997. The other six years, a one game championship game would be unfair. And so on, for different numbers of games.

If you want more than one game, we always end up with between three and six deserving teams. It's just not possible to create a fair system.

Fortunately, the world keeps turning just fine without a fair college football system. In fact, one could argue that the sport does quite well. There are no shortage of fans. There's certainly no shortage of money! What's the problem with the system we have now?

Are the Red Sox insane? J.D. Drew for 5 years and $70 million? The same J.D. Drew who's accumulated 500 at bats in a season once? The same J.D. Drew who's played in more than 140 games twice in eight full seasons? The same J.D. Drew who's always hurt?

When he's healthy, yes, Drew is Mickey Mantle. But he's not Mickey Mantle. The proper comparison is Eric Davis. Like Davis before him, Drew has all the talent in the world, but also like Davis, Drew has yet to play a full season. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Sox are crazy to pay a part time player this kind of money.

Among my other interests, I follow efforts to eradicate non-native species. I'm happy to see that the National Park Service is going to eliminate nonnative deer from Point Reyes. I love Point Reyes. It's a fascinating place, and I've probably hiked every trail in the park.

I only wish they'd be more aggressive about these nonnative deer. Shoot them all and shoot them now! It would be better for the ecosystem to get rid of them sooner, not later. The Marin Humane Society is just wrong. (They should focus on cats and dogs and not say stupid things about wild animals.)

Nonnative feral pigs on the Channel Islands off Los Angeles pose even more severe problems for the whole ecosystem. They should also be shot.

Sixteen millions of dollars for Bonds.

Will he be worth it? As Steven Colbert would say, "I don't trink so."

His numbers, are declining, but more worrisome is the decline in games played. Maybe he's good for 130 games next year. These days he doesn't have any speed, so he clogs the bases when walked, and doesn't cover much ground in left field.

As I've been saying for years, Bonds should bat second. Especially this year. Certainly no lower than third. If he batted second, it's reasonable to assume there would be plenty of games where he could get three at bats in by the 6th inning, and then come out of the game.

I wouldn't pay him $16 million. Unless they sign someone, the Giants will again be old, and I don't think they'll be very good. Bonds is plenty divisive in the clubhouse; if the team isn't winning it could get ugly. Maybe they'll make back the money in jersey sales, but I don't know.

So very sad.

At this point, it's worth wondering. Is Castro dead?

And if he's dead, can we finally end this stupid embargo to trade and travel to Cuba?

Hmmm, so either Michigan or Florida will play Ohio State for the national championship. I'm a big Michigan fan, but I have to admit that Florida should probably go. Ohio State beat us already; they shouldn't have to beat us again.

One interesting argument the SEC people make is that the SEC is the toughest conference. I don't know if that's true, but I thought I'd compare the out-of-conference schedules of the SEC with the Big 10.

Big 10 teams have

SEC teams have, in total, two wins against teams in the top 25. Tennessee clobbered Cal at home, and Georgia beat Georgia Tech. All told, the SEC was 9-6 against teams from the six BCS conferences, with one additional loss to a non-BCS conference team (Mississippi State lost to Tulane). Call them 9-7.

Big 10 teams also have two wins against top 25 teams. Ohio State won decisively at Texas and Michigan hammered Notre Dame in South Bend. Both Texas and Notre Dame were #2 when they were defeated. The Big 10 was 7-4 against teams from the BCS conferences, with four losses to non-BCS conference teams (Ohio University, Hawaii, New Hampshire, and Nevada). Wisconsin's schedule is especially embarrassing. Ugh.

So to me, the conferences look about the same. Five of the Big 10's losses were by its crap teams (Northwestern, Illinois). I just think that it's wrong to make Ohio State beat Michigan twice. Much as it pains me, we had our chance.

I think the economics of baseball have changed a little. Which is to say that they've changed a lot. Salaries are going to go waaaaaay up with the new TV deal.

Exhibit A: Jim Edmonds. I like him. He plays hard, plays hurt. He's been good for the Cards. But until this year there's no way you pay a guy on the downside of his career $19 million for two more years. Maybe last year was an anomoly. But it sure looked like he peaked in 2004. He's had two years of significant decreases in batting average, slugging, and games played. Not encouraging.

The Sox are trying to sign a Japanese pitcher named Daisuke Matsuzaka. They bid $51.1 m-m-m-million just for the right to negotiate. Does the money make sense? I have no idea.

It sort of sounds like when Real Madrid signed David Beckham. Real Madrid paid $41 million to Beckham's old club, plus his salary. I read, though, that they made that money back in jersey sales immediately. Apparently Beckham is so popular in Asia that enough people bought his jersey that Real Madrid made money on the deal before he ever walked on the field.

Maybe it's the same with Matsuzaka. Maybe the Sox figure that they'll make so much more money on jersey sales in Japan that the actual cost to them is much lower. Or maybe not. Maybe he's just a really good pitcher. Beats me.

Well, that's over. Time to resume.

Hall of Fame ballots went out. We're going to have some controversy. First, the easiest. Cal Ripken is in on the first ballot. Duh.

Tony Gwynn is also in on the first ballot. 3141 hits, .388 lifetime average, 20 seasons with the same team, .324 in his last season (!!). In.

Then it gets interesting. Mark McGwire. And, for that matter, Jose Canseco. Actually that's easy too. Regardless of stats, which are pretty impressive, no one in baseball likes Canseco. Not gonna happen.

McGwire is a tough call. Plenty of writers won't ever vote for him, but they're *especially* not going to want him to share the stage with Good Guys Ripken and Gwynn (Gwynn, ahem, obviously didn't use steroids). How good a player was McGwire? He had nine really good years (87, 88, 89, 90, 92, 96, 97, 98, 99). He was hurt in between. Mediocre fielder, no speed. Obviously a year for the ages in 1998. On the other hand, yes, RBI's are a little bit goofy, but he still had fewer than Rusty Staub (and just seven more than Canseco). If he hadn't been hurt in the middle of his career, his numbers would look a lot better. Which is sort of the question. Why was he hurt so much? I don't know, but it looks pretty suspicious.

My guess is that he doesn't make it in. Certainly not this year, I don't think ever. Which won't bode well for Barry Lamar Bonds in a few more years.....

Italy, Czech Republic, Ghana. Oof. Still, it is progress that the Italian press is mad that they've been stuck in the same group as us.

Something tells me Dontrelle Willis is feeling just a little bit lonely right about now.

Hmmmmm.

Josh (à) Beckett
Schilling
Clement
Wakefield
Arroyo
Miller
(Wells?)
(Papelbon?)

That might work. I like this deal, although Mike Lowell is going to be terrible for two years, and he's very expensive. He's another one whose career stats took a real nose-dive when the threat of steroid testing came up........

...and shame, Jean Schmidt, shame.

Bravo, John Murtha. Bravo.

I remember early in the season, Ohio State's Jim Tressel was criticized for not getting the ball to their best player, Ted Ginn. See, e.g. Texas (two catches, nine yards) and Penn State (three catches, forty yards).

That's exactly what we need on Saturday! Come on Coach Tressel, keep the ball out of Ted Ginn's hands!

My dad correctly points out that all baseball fans really should thank Rafael Palmeiro. Because of him baseball finally has an actual drug policy. I'm not sure it would have come about without him. Thanks, Raffy!

Wow.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=steroids&num=1

ESPN shows conclusively that baseball knew about steroids in 1991, Bud Selig's recent claims of ignorance notwithstanding. And wow, everyone really was using them.

I'd like to hereby declare my availability to John Henry and the Red Sox. Not my availability for General Manager. Instead my availability for Club President. Larry Lucchino has failed and I would like to be considered for his role. As my first action, I would re-hire Theo Epstein to be GM. The Sox appear to be in complete disarray, and I'm very discouraged with the prospect of exchanging a smart statistically based GM for some old 'baseball sort'.

Now this is interesting, on a couple of levels. First, of course, the truth about the Gulf of Tonkin, which is that it never happened. (Sidenote, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, passed by Congress, gave LBJ the authority to vastly increase US troops in Vietnam.) So Congress was given false information by the administration and based on that false information it approved the administration's decision to go to war. (In Vietnam)

Obviously, the previous sentence could have been written about the present war in Iraq. Which brings up the second level that this new information is interesting. The present administration seems like it's trying to bury the discovery of the 40 year old mistake because the parallels are so obvious that even the President's defenders cannot deny them.


2000 Americans have now died in Iraq. There will be more, unfortunately, many more, sacrificed in a bloody, unwinnable war on the other side of the world. I don't know how many, and I don't know how long it will take, but sooner or later we will pull out of Iraq and then we will wonder what exactly we were doing there in the first place. I have no doubt that in 40 years, the present war in Iraq will be viewed as a serious mistake, just as today the Vietnam War is rightly seen as a mistake. And our children will wonder how it was that America could have so completely failed to learn the lessons of Vietnam.

I've sure been a lot nicer to Harriet Miers than a lot of (nominally) conservatives.

I'm not saying Harriet Miers is a bad person--it may be that she'd be a terrific Justice. It's just that she's so vastly unqualified. If Bush wants to appoint her to a court, why not appoint her to the Fifth Circuit? I don't think anyone would argue with appointing her to Fifth Circuit, and that's plenty prestigious. But something tells me that ain't gonna happen.....

As a sidenote, here's a map showing where I've been:



create your own map


My conclusion: there's a lot of this world that I need to see!

It says I've been to 10% of the world--they may be counting by country. I don't feel like I've seen that much.

It seems that Harriet Miers has tried eights cases to verdict. In her career.

There were three cases where either her client or the opposing party sought Supreme Court review. Never granted.

None of her cases dealt with Constitutional issues of any kind. Her work at the White House doesn't seem to involve the Constitution.

In my opinion, she's wildly unqualified. She may well be smart and personally honest, but the more one learns about it, the thinner her legal resume looks. There are thousands of commercial litigators out there who have roughly the same qualifications, and surely there are hundreds who have better qualifications. Personally, I think it makes a lot of sense to have someone on the Supreme Court with a commercial litigation background--they have plenty of career judges on there already. But I don't think she's the one to put on there.

Does Bush not understand that this is an important job? Does he just think he can appoint his cronies to any position?

Nothing, and I mean NOTHING had gone right for the Cardinals since the beat Houston in Game 1. When Berkman hit that home run tonight, I admit I gave up and went to the gym. Fortunately the gym had a TV.

Whoo-hoo!

If nothing else, it's a chance for one last game at Busch Stadium. I saw a game there with my dad a few years back (summer of 1997, I think). I don't remember who won, but Mark McGwire stole a base. Looking at his stats, that was a rare sight......

In any case, I hope their luck turns. Game 6 is Wednesday.

I'll take it. Whew.

Whew. When Roy Oswalt is on, there's no much anyone can do. Now the Cardinals have to go beat Clemens in Houston. Ugh.

"People are interested to know why I picked Harriet Miers. They want to know Harriet Miers' background. They want to know as much as they possibly can before they form opinions. Part of Harriet Miers' life is her religion." Bush. October 12, 2005.

Uhhhhh, right. Any other reasons? Her strong background in constitutional litigation? Her academic writings? Her philosophical positions?

Oh, wait, there aren't any of those things. Harriet Miers sounds like a very nice person (at least for a lawyer). We know virtually nothing about what she thinks. And the Senate is supposed to vote for her because she's a Christian? I don't expect to agree with much of what John Roberts does from the bench, but he was indisputably qualified for the Supreme Court. Is Miers?

Normally, I don't sit around and read the Federalist Papers (written by James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay to encourage states to ratify the Constitution in 1787). However, in number 76, Hamilton specifically talked about the benefits of Senate approval of Presidential nominees:

[The President] would be both ashamed and afraid to bring forward, for the most distinguished or lucative stations, candidates who had no other merit than that of coming from the same State to which he particularly belonged, or of being in some way or other personally allied to him, or of possessing the necessary insignificance and pliancy to render them the obsequious instruments of his pleasure.


Wow. How applicable to Harriet Miers. Same state? Check. Personally allied to the President? Check. Insignificance? Maybe. Pliancy? Seems like it.

I mean, really, what has she done? Does she have any constitutional background? I'm all in favor of having someone on the Court who actually has done trial work, but is there no lawyer in America who may be more qualified? Anyone who had a First Amendment practice? For that matter, a criminal lawyer?

Terrible. Sports. Weekend.

Ok, the Cardinals won, but everyone expected that. The Sox just crumbled, looking old. Wait till next year. Michigan looked confused (albeit with a good defense). Three losses means the season is a failure. Garbage Pit Bowl, here we come!

Chris Carpenter pitched well today (saved by three double plays), but I think he's lost the Cy Young. Over the last month he was pretty mediocre. Which stands in direct contrast to the guy who should win it, Dontrelle Willis, who had just one bad start down the stretch.

Willis has one more win, one more shutout, and a better ERA. No contest. I just wonder how many voters made up their mind in August.

Harriet Miers.

Raise your hand if you'd ever heard of her. And now she's nominated for the Supreme Court? What distinguishes her for this job?

She was a partner at a big firm in Dallas. There are thousands of litigation partners at big firms across the country. At least John Roberts had argued many times in front of the Supreme Court and was considered among the best in the country at it. What has she done? Are there really no more distinguished candidates?

My new favorite player is, uhhhhh, Brandon McCarthy. He starts for the White Sox tomorrow.

(As a sidenote, if the Sox beat the Yankees tomorrow, the Sox are in the playoffs. If the White Sox beat the Tribe, the So are in the playoffs. If the Tribe wins and the Sox lose, they play Monday for a final playoff spot.)