I've long been a fan of the guy.
I'm also a fan of Bill James, of course, although I find this Joe Posnanski fellow rather annoying. But here Posnanski is right on. Maybe the lesson is that he should always use Bill James as a resource. Bill James cannot help but be interesting.
I especially love this point, about Johnson's peak to Sandy Koufax's peak:
Koufax from 1963 to 1966 famously went 97-27 (.782 winning percentage) with a 1.86 ERA (a 172 ERA+ -- meaning his ERA was 72 percent better than the average pitcher of his time) and he averaged 307 strikeouts per year.
Johnson from 1995 to 2002 went 143-44 (.765 winning percentage) with a 2.61 ERA (a 177 ERA+ -- meaning his ERA was 77 percent better than the average pitcher of his time) and he averaged 302 strikeouts per year (despite missing most of the 1996 season).
In an otherwise great column, though, it's a shame that the leave out one of Randy Johnson's absolute career highlights.
Showing posts with label Wins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wins. Show all posts
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Randy Johnson
I am looking forward to Randy Johnson getting win 300. He's now at 298.
Two years ago, I doubted he'd get to 300.
Barring injury, the Very Large Unit will get win 300 in the next few weeks. Very cool. Then there will be another slew of articles about how we'll never see another 300 game winner, just like there were when Glavine got to 300. In 2007. (Note the Sports Illustrated article I linked to, which has a quote from Bobby Cox about Tom Glavine: "Tommy will be the last 300-game winner ever." Thanks, Bobby.)
Two years ago, I doubted he'd get to 300.
Barring injury, the Very Large Unit will get win 300 in the next few weeks. Very cool. Then there will be another slew of articles about how we'll never see another 300 game winner, just like there were when Glavine got to 300. In 2007. (Note the Sports Illustrated article I linked to, which has a quote from Bobby Cox about Tom Glavine: "Tommy will be the last 300-game winner ever." Thanks, Bobby.)
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Maddux-Clemens
With Maddux retiring, we can look at the final comparison of his wins with Clemens.
After last year I thought that Maddux would pas Clemens this year and have a shot at getting to 361 wins and #6 all time. That won't happen, but I doubt anyone will pass him again.
And get ready for a slew of articles saying how great he was. Too many times, these articles are written about undeserving players. Not this time.
After last year I thought that Maddux would pas Clemens this year and have a shot at getting to 361 wins and #6 all time. That won't happen, but I doubt anyone will pass him again.
And get ready for a slew of articles saying how great he was. Too many times, these articles are written about undeserving players. Not this time.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Maddux
I thought Greg Maddux would pass Clemens sometime in July. I was wrong. Maddux last won on May 10 and is stuck on 350 wins.
Lately, he's been outstanding. He's had five consecutive quality starts with no wins and one loss to show for it. His ERA is 3.17. He's having a great year.
His problem is his team. The Padres have scored even fewer runs than the Giants. Which is why they're tied for last place in the NL West.
Lately, he's been outstanding. He's had five consecutive quality starts with no wins and one loss to show for it. His ERA is 3.17. He's having a great year.
His problem is his team. The Padres have scored even fewer runs than the Giants. Which is why they're tied for last place in the NL West.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Clemens, History
Roger Clemens isn't going to pitch again. Even Yahoo Sports has removed him from their active list. So he'll retire with 354 wins.
Maddux just won game 350, so he ought to pass Clemens sometime in July.
As I noted a year ago, Clemens' lead has been shrinking since 1991.
In addition to "Winningest Pitcher of His Generation", he'll probably lose the "Strikeout King of his Generation" title sometime later this summer too, if Randy Johnson stays healthy. I tracked the strikeout difference between them earlier. Clemens got a few more strikeouts since that last post, while Johnson was hurt, and they were about tied last year. So far Johnson is punching out 5.6 guys per start. As of today, Clemens is 28 strikeouts ahead of him:
Randy Johnson's back could give out at any time, but if he can stay healthy, he should pass Clemens around the Fourth of July.
Maddux just won game 350, so he ought to pass Clemens sometime in July.
As I noted a year ago, Clemens' lead has been shrinking since 1991.
In addition to "Winningest Pitcher of His Generation", he'll probably lose the "Strikeout King of his Generation" title sometime later this summer too, if Randy Johnson stays healthy. I tracked the strikeout difference between them earlier. Clemens got a few more strikeouts since that last post, while Johnson was hurt, and they were about tied last year. So far Johnson is punching out 5.6 guys per start. As of today, Clemens is 28 strikeouts ahead of him:
Randy Johnson's back could give out at any time, but if he can stay healthy, he should pass Clemens around the Fourth of July.
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Maddux
Greg Maddux signed a one year contract with the Padres.
He's now just seven wins behind Clemens on the career wins list. I have to think that Clemens is done--no one is going to pay him $20 million to make seventeen starts and go 6-6.
So if he stays healthy, Maddux should pass Clemens sometime next summer.
Meanwhile Glavine signed back with the Braves for one more year. He's probably good for about ten more wins, so he'll finish in the top twenty if he stays healthy.
Clemens goes to the Hall in 2012, Glavine in 2013, and Maddux? I dunno. He still won 14 games last year....
He's now just seven wins behind Clemens on the career wins list. I have to think that Clemens is done--no one is going to pay him $20 million to make seventeen starts and go 6-6.
So if he stays healthy, Maddux should pass Clemens sometime next summer.
Meanwhile Glavine signed back with the Braves for one more year. He's probably good for about ten more wins, so he'll finish in the top twenty if he stays healthy.
Clemens goes to the Hall in 2012, Glavine in 2013, and Maddux? I dunno. He still won 14 games last year....
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Clemens-Maddux
I noted at the start of the season that while Clemens has more wins than Maddux, his lead has been shrinking since 1991.
Maddux had a pretty good year last year. Clemens, a little less so, but it wasn't too bad. Both of them had ERAs significantly better than the league average. Clemens, though, seems less likely to come back. I can't imagine that anyone will pay him that much money again.
After this year, Maddux is within striking distance. Clemens' lead was 15 at the end of last season; now it's 7.
Maddux keeps rolling along and I believe he has another year left on this contract. Of course he could get hurt. But barring injury, he looks good for another 10-13 wins next year. I don't know about Clemens.
I still think it's cool that the #8 and #9 career wins leaders are simultaneously active. I can't imagine it will ever happen again. I don't know that Clemens will get to Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin, but I wouldn't put it past Maddux if he stays healthy. Probably not next year, when he ought to finish with about 358 wins. But maybe after the following, if he sticks around. If he stays healthy for two more years, it's possible he could pass Warren Spahn and end up #5 on the all time list.
Maddux had a pretty good year last year. Clemens, a little less so, but it wasn't too bad. Both of them had ERAs significantly better than the league average. Clemens, though, seems less likely to come back. I can't imagine that anyone will pay him that much money again.
After this year, Maddux is within striking distance. Clemens' lead was 15 at the end of last season; now it's 7.
Maddux keeps rolling along and I believe he has another year left on this contract. Of course he could get hurt. But barring injury, he looks good for another 10-13 wins next year. I don't know about Clemens.
I still think it's cool that the #8 and #9 career wins leaders are simultaneously active. I can't imagine it will ever happen again. I don't know that Clemens will get to Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin, but I wouldn't put it past Maddux if he stays healthy. Probably not next year, when he ought to finish with about 358 wins. But maybe after the following, if he sticks around. If he stays healthy for two more years, it's possible he could pass Warren Spahn and end up #5 on the all time list.
Monday, August 06, 2007
Glavine
Tom Glavine won his 300th game yesterday, prompting a rash of (easy to write) articles about how he'll be the last 300 game winner.
Sportswriters love an easy story, especially one that someone else has already written. It's also a safe article to write, because no one's going to remember it by the time the next pitcher wins 300. Randy Johnson, stuck at 284, is looking like a more and more unlikely candidate for 300, and as I mentioned in May, no one else is close.
So the next 300 game winner isn't going to happen for a while. It could be Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt (if he gets on a team that figures out how to score), or one of the others, but we've got a few years.
I'm sure that similar articles have been written before. The list of 300 game winners contains some gaps. I bet that plenty of people decided that Nolan Ryan would be the last such pitcher in 1990. Although six guys (Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, and Ryan) made it withing 8 years, no one else was on the horizon. At the end of the 1990 season, Clemens had just 116 wins.
Before Gaylor Perry it had been 20 years since Early Wynn won 300. I'm sure there were articles by lazy sportswriters in 1963 too saying that he was the last. I don't think we'll be waiting another 20 years; I think it'll happen sometime in 2021.
Sportswriters love an easy story, especially one that someone else has already written. It's also a safe article to write, because no one's going to remember it by the time the next pitcher wins 300. Randy Johnson, stuck at 284, is looking like a more and more unlikely candidate for 300, and as I mentioned in May, no one else is close.
So the next 300 game winner isn't going to happen for a while. It could be Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt (if he gets on a team that figures out how to score), or one of the others, but we've got a few years.
I'm sure that similar articles have been written before. The list of 300 game winners contains some gaps. I bet that plenty of people decided that Nolan Ryan would be the last such pitcher in 1990. Although six guys (Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, and Ryan) made it withing 8 years, no one else was on the horizon. At the end of the 1990 season, Clemens had just 116 wins.
Before Gaylor Perry it had been 20 years since Early Wynn won 300. I'm sure there were articles by lazy sportswriters in 1963 too saying that he was the last. I don't think we'll be waiting another 20 years; I think it'll happen sometime in 2021.
Monday, July 02, 2007
Clemens
I'm obviously not a big fan of Clemens.
However I am a big fan of baseball history. And my dad's favorite pitcher was Warren Spahn. Today Clemens got his 350th, the first to do so since Spahn in 1963. Somehow (what are the chances?) the guy who caught Spahn was named Joe Torre. Really, what are the chances? It's a funny game....
There's a pretty good chance that Maddux will get to 350 next year, if he stays healthy, but after that we'll be lucky to see anyone else get to 350. For now, though, I hope Clements keeps pitching. Bring on Kid Nichols!
However I am a big fan of baseball history. And my dad's favorite pitcher was Warren Spahn. Today Clemens got his 350th, the first to do so since Spahn in 1963. Somehow (what are the chances?) the guy who caught Spahn was named Joe Torre. Really, what are the chances? It's a funny game....
There's a pretty good chance that Maddux will get to 350 next year, if he stays healthy, but after that we'll be lucky to see anyone else get to 350. For now, though, I hope Clements keeps pitching. Bring on Kid Nichols!
Friday, June 22, 2007
Baseball Players
It's not news that baseball players aren't brain surgeons. They're also great at spewing out a lot of garbage in interviews.
But still. When Jeter was asked about the possibility of Clemens getting career win 350 yesterday (he lost to Colorado, though he pitched well) he said the following:
"It's longevity and consistency, I don't think you'll see anyone else get to that number."
Ehhhhh, Derek ol' buddy, ever heard of a guy named Maddux? You may be interested to learn that he's won 339 games in his career. It's pretty reasonable to think that he'll have a chance at "that number", assuming he stays healthy.....
But still. When Jeter was asked about the possibility of Clemens getting career win 350 yesterday (he lost to Colorado, though he pitched well) he said the following:
"It's longevity and consistency, I don't think you'll see anyone else get to that number."
Ehhhhh, Derek ol' buddy, ever heard of a guy named Maddux? You may be interested to learn that he's won 339 games in his career. It's pretty reasonable to think that he'll have a chance at "that number", assuming he stays healthy.....
Monday, May 28, 2007
300
Not the movie.
I'm mildly obsessed with career wins, specifically 300 game winners. Presently Clemens has 348 and Maddux 337, a rare instance where two pitchers in the top ten are active.
Barring injury, Glavine will almost certainly get to 300 this year--he's at 295 right now and is pitching well. The Very Large Unit is at 282. He won't get there this year. Maybe next year, if his back will let him.
Who's next? No one, not for a while. If we look at active 200 game winners, none of them will get to 300. Mussina's 38, and I doubt he has 59 wins left in him, considering the last four seasons he won 57. He appears to be running out of gas.
Boomer, Jamie Moyer (quick, who knew he had more wins than Pedro or Schilling?), Kevin Brown (why is he on the "active" list?), Kenny Rogers, Pedro (love him!), and now Smoltz, who may have had a chance if he didn't spend four years relieving, but now is making a very strong case for the Hall of Fame...none of them are going to get there.
Looking further down the list, the next likely candidate is Tim Hudson, who's a long 176 wins away. It's possible that he could average 15 wins for the next twelve years. I think a better bet is Roy Oswalt. He's won a lot of games already, but he has to get on a team that score some runs for him. The rest of the list--Buerle, Halladay, Sabathia, etc.--is so far away that speculation is pointless, no matter how good Johan Santana is. It's at least ten years away, probably more. So after Glavine and Randy Johnson, there won't be any 300 game winners until, oh, 2018, maybe 2020.
I'm mildly obsessed with career wins, specifically 300 game winners. Presently Clemens has 348 and Maddux 337, a rare instance where two pitchers in the top ten are active.
Barring injury, Glavine will almost certainly get to 300 this year--he's at 295 right now and is pitching well. The Very Large Unit is at 282. He won't get there this year. Maybe next year, if his back will let him.
Who's next? No one, not for a while. If we look at active 200 game winners, none of them will get to 300. Mussina's 38, and I doubt he has 59 wins left in him, considering the last four seasons he won 57. He appears to be running out of gas.
Boomer, Jamie Moyer (quick, who knew he had more wins than Pedro or Schilling?), Kevin Brown (why is he on the "active" list?), Kenny Rogers, Pedro (love him!), and now Smoltz, who may have had a chance if he didn't spend four years relieving, but now is making a very strong case for the Hall of Fame...none of them are going to get there.
Looking further down the list, the next likely candidate is Tim Hudson, who's a long 176 wins away. It's possible that he could average 15 wins for the next twelve years. I think a better bet is Roy Oswalt. He's won a lot of games already, but he has to get on a team that score some runs for him. The rest of the list--Buerle, Halladay, Sabathia, etc.--is so far away that speculation is pointless, no matter how good Johan Santana is. It's at least ten years away, probably more. So after Glavine and Randy Johnson, there won't be any 300 game winners until, oh, 2018, maybe 2020.
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Al Mamaux?
Eddie, dude, tell me you didn't go through the list of all baseball players ever to unearth Al Mamaux.
On the other hand, he (Mamaux) had a very respectable career, was traded for Casey Stengal and he played with Ruth, Gehrig, and Wally Pipp. He's worth discussing, and I hereby elevate him above Mike Maddux.
Pending future discoveries, I think we can agree on:
1. Greg Maddux
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Harvey Haddix
4. Milt Wilcox (I should have remembered him)
5. Claude (Jimi) Hendrix
6. Al Mamaux
7. Mike Maddux
8. Double X
Haddix beats Wilcox due to more wins and also his legendary Greatest Game Ever Pitched, which coincidentally is also the Greatest Game Ever Pitched And Lost.
Both beat Jimi, who is dinged due to suspicious gambling.
Incidentally, Foxx gets bonus points for being in a poem, though inevitably Gehrig got the best stanza.
On the other hand, he (Mamaux) had a very respectable career, was traded for Casey Stengal and he played with Ruth, Gehrig, and Wally Pipp. He's worth discussing, and I hereby elevate him above Mike Maddux.
Pending future discoveries, I think we can agree on:
1. Greg Maddux
2. Sandy Koufax
3. Harvey Haddix
4. Milt Wilcox (I should have remembered him)
5. Claude (Jimi) Hendrix
6. Al Mamaux
7. Mike Maddux
8. Double X
Haddix beats Wilcox due to more wins and also his legendary Greatest Game Ever Pitched, which coincidentally is also the Greatest Game Ever Pitched And Lost.
Both beat Jimi, who is dinged due to suspicious gambling.
Incidentally, Foxx gets bonus points for being in a poem, though inevitably Gehrig got the best stanza.
Monday, May 14, 2007
Great Pitchers
Greg Maddux threw a 96 pitch complete game tonight for his third victory of the year. That puts him at 336 career wins, tenth in history behind, uhhh, Tim Keefe. If he stays healthy, and if the Padres score enough runs, he's got a decent shot of passing Keefe this season.
Meanwhile Clemens has 348 wins, and will pick up a few more this season. This is, by definition, rare. I can't imagine there will ever again be a time when two of the ten all time winningest pitchers are simultaneously playing. (If Maddux gets seven more wins, it'll take 342 to even make the top ten, and in this day and age I don't see anyone getting to that point ever again.)
Because Clemens and Maddux have such a good overlap, we can compare their win totals. Clemens started in 1984, Maddux in 1986. This chart shows Clemens' lead, which was 59 wins in 1991 and has been shrinking ever since:
I have no idea whether it's true, but it wouldn't surprise me if this was at least part of Clemens' motivation to come back again. He wants to be the greatest pitcher of his generation, and that's a bit tougher to justify if someone else of his generation has more wins....
Meanwhile Clemens has 348 wins, and will pick up a few more this season. This is, by definition, rare. I can't imagine there will ever again be a time when two of the ten all time winningest pitchers are simultaneously playing. (If Maddux gets seven more wins, it'll take 342 to even make the top ten, and in this day and age I don't see anyone getting to that point ever again.)
Because Clemens and Maddux have such a good overlap, we can compare their win totals. Clemens started in 1984, Maddux in 1986. This chart shows Clemens' lead, which was 59 wins in 1991 and has been shrinking ever since:
I have no idea whether it's true, but it wouldn't surprise me if this was at least part of Clemens' motivation to come back again. He wants to be the greatest pitcher of his generation, and that's a bit tougher to justify if someone else of his generation has more wins....
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