Giants!

Can they get to the playoffs? Not looking good. Lincecum is allowed one bad start, after all he's done this year. With Lincecum and Cain, they would be a very difficult team to play in a short series, but they have to get there first.

The Rockies magic number is 9, as of today. Not much wiggle room left. Starting tonight? Zito. Ahem. He's actually been generally decent lately, but he's not exactly the guy you want out there.

On the bright side, look at the remaining schedule: 6 against the Snakes (65-85, this is not a good team), 3 against the Cubbies (who seem to be aggressively crumbling), and 3 against the Padres (68-82; they aren't good either). It's an easy schedule, so we can still hope.

Zito

Man, Zito just can't buy a break.

He's actually pitching very well this year, with a 3.62 ERA. Which? Gives him a record of 1-4.

The Giants are playing pretty well. I didn't think they'd be a .500 team. The problem is scoring. They're third from the bottom of the National League in runs.

A friend of mine had an extra ticket for the Giants game tonight. We were in the 12th row right behind home plate. They were the best seats I've ever had at the Phonebooth. Zito looked pretty good. From those seats you can really see his curveball curving.

It's a good thing Aurelia drove in the go ahead runs, he had a rough outing at 3rd base with one error and a couple of bobbles.

Lots and lots of empty seats, though, even in the box seats.

It's the All Star Break

A reasonable time to look at my predictions.

And dang, was I ever wrong about Zito. Does "disappointing" even begin to describe his season? Look at his stats. I'm not sure why his ERA has skyrocketed. His WHIP is about the same as last year, he's on pace to give up *fewer* homers, and hitters actually have a lower batting average against him (which I assume is often true when one moves from the American to the National league) this year. He's now most expensive #5 starter in history.

While I was off on Zito, I sure was right on J.D. Drew. That was a dumb signing from the getgo. He had a great year in 2004, but it's not too hard to see a trend since then. Mistakes are more painful when they're blindingly obvious.

I was also right on Edmonds. He was an obvious mistake. He's been awful this year, and they're stuck with him for another year after this one.

Giants

For the sake of their future, the Giants really need to get rid of Bonds after this season. Or pay him a lot less. (He's mentioned that he'd like to get to 3000 hits, which would require him to play next year.)

He's costing the Giants $16 million this year, and even with Bonds in the lineup, they're only 10th in runs.

Which is a shame, because their pitching (uhhhh, the starters anyway) is good, and they have the potential for a dominating rotation in a year or two. Consider:

• Matt Cain has had some hard luck, but his ERA is almost a run under the National League average.
• Tim Lincecum is living up to the hype, so far.
• Noah Lowry (!) has been better than Cain.
• Matt ("Lazarus") Morris is the staff ace.
• Oh, and then there's Zito. I have to think he'll come around, even if for now he's the most expensive #5 starter in baseball history.

That, folks, is a rotation. For 2009, the Giants *MUST* ditch Bonds and get some hitting, because if these guys pitch anything like this, they're going to be very impressive. The team is perfectly set up to move past Bonds, but to do so they actually have to move past him.

(Oh, and Russ Ortiz, thanks for playing. Welcome to long relief, until someone gets hurt.)

In other news, I went to the Giants game last night. The first game of the season is always fun.

(a) Zito looked good, although the game ended in about 2:10. Nobody was grinding out at bats last night.

(b) Bonds can unquestionably hit but he sure can't run. We had great seats right behind the bullpen in left field. He's capable of jogging to make a catch, but generally he just stood there. Granted it's an exhibition game, but he better hit a lot of homers because he's going to clog the bases. Not that I blame him, but if his knees are this gimpy in March, I doubt he'll play in even 130 games this year.

(c) 29,627 fans? No way, no how. MAYBE 15,000.

Wow. If the Giants get Zito, what a coup! If anyone's worth it, I think it's Zito. He's never missed a start. Ever.

He's durable, and I assume he'll have an easier time in the National League. He could easily with 20 games the next couple of years. (I think projecting beyond that is too speculative for pitchers.)

Assuming, of course, the Giants score any runs. Last year the Giants were 15th in on base percentage, 10th in slugging. They were an old, slow team. Granted Pac Bell Park is a pitcher's park, but they still need to score. It's not a good sign when Omar Vizquel leads your team in hitting!