Warm up the Fat Lady

I think the Giants are done. Last night was crushing. Losing the game is bad enough, but to lose in the 9th inning with a homer off your closer? Ouch.

Viva Gigantes!

Well, maybe. Zito was notsogood yesterday, but they still won. A win is a win is a win.

Four games back with 12 to play. Not great odds, but at least they pitch Matt Cain tonight. If they're going to make the postseason, they have to win pretty much every game from here on out.

Giants!

Can they get to the playoffs? Not looking good. Lincecum is allowed one bad start, after all he's done this year. With Lincecum and Cain, they would be a very difficult team to play in a short series, but they have to get there first.

The Rockies magic number is 9, as of today. Not much wiggle room left. Starting tonight? Zito. Ahem. He's actually been generally decent lately, but he's not exactly the guy you want out there.

On the bright side, look at the remaining schedule: 6 against the Snakes (65-85, this is not a good team), 3 against the Cubbies (who seem to be aggressively crumbling), and 3 against the Padres (68-82; they aren't good either). It's an easy schedule, so we can still hope.

Zito

Man, Zito just can't buy a break.

He's actually pitching very well this year, with a 3.62 ERA. Which? Gives him a record of 1-4.

The Giants are playing pretty well. I didn't think they'd be a .500 team. The problem is scoring. They're third from the bottom of the National League in runs.

Giants Offense

It's nice to see the Big Giant pitch a great game and get win 296.

It's worth noting that the score was 2-0. This year started well, with a three game series against Milwaukee where the Giants scored 19 runs or 6.3 per game. So far so good. But since then, they've scored 18 runs in the last nine games, just two per game. All told, it's 37 runs in 12 games, 3.1 per game. They are next to last in the National League in scoring.

This is not a new problem. I think it will be a long season for the Giants. Again. It's tough to win games when you can't score, and it's even tougher when your staff ERA is thirteenth in the National League.

Actually I think the pitching will come around. I'll be pretty surprised if the offense shows much improvement, though.

The Franchise

Two bad starts in a row for the Franchise. This is not good.

Last year I was worried about how many innings he was throwing. I hope I was wrong. It doesn't sound like he's hurt this year, but I sure hope he's healthy.

A Steal

The Franchise signed a one year contract for $650,000.

Considering the Giants are paying Randy Johnson $8 million, and Zito (ahem) $18 million, Lincecum's a steal.


More broadly, it's a small demonstration of how much sense it makes to go with young players. It's rather doubtful that the Big Creaky Unit will give the Giants 15 times the value they get from Lincecum.

Big Unit

The Giants signed Randy Johnson to a one year deal for $8 million (plus incentives).

I like it. When he's healthy, Johnson can still a pretty good pitcher. Last year he made 30 starts and had a 3.91 ERA. Obviously, the key part of that sentence is "when he's healthy". Johnson's actually been fairly durable--just two years with fewer than 30 starts since 1999. Of course, he'll turn 46 this fall. (At the same time, it's worth noting that occasionally a power pitcher ages well.) If he does stay healthy, Johnson should get to 300 wins, which would be cool.

I think the Giants have a legitimate shot at the playoffs next year, with The Franchise (who I still worry about), Matt Cain, Johnson, and Zito in the rotation. They're lucky to play in a crummy division.
Last year, though, their problem, was hitting. Their batting average was actually in the middle of the pack, but they were next to last in runs, and you gotta score runs to win.

Hitting is still the big problem. I sure hope the organization is now going to try to get some, or else it'll be another long year.

The Franchise

(sorry for the delay, I was busy with www.votingwisely.com, and distracted by the election)

Lincecum won the Cy Young. This is cool for the Giants. I'm happy to be wrong.

I hope I'm also wrong about overworking him. He pitched 146 innings last year and 227 this year. I just hope he didn't hurt himself this year.


And for the guy who didn't have Lincecum in his top three? Awful. Yes, Lidge was good this year, but there's no way he belongs on the ballot. He pitched 69.1 innings. Webb, Lincecum, and Santana all pitched more than three times as many. A closer can only win a Cy Young when there's no dominant starter, and this year there were three.

Besides, every time I think of Lidge I think of this.

Lincecum

After tonight's start (4.1 innings, 4 ER, raising his ERA to 2.66), I don't think The Franchise can win the Cy Young over Webb. They both can make one more start, but Webb already has 22 wins and Lincecum has just 17. He's now up to 220 innings. Last year he only pitched 146.

The Giants are mad if they let him make his final start. It would be really stupid. The risks are too high for no reward. He's had a great year. With his nine strikeouts tonight, he has 252 for the season, which gives him the Giants season record over Jason Schmidt. The Cy Young talk has been fun. But now the time to give up and get ready for next year.

Lincecum is maybe the most valuable pitcher in baseball right now. He's a young potential #1 starter, and the list of #1 starters under 30 includes Webb, Johan Santana, Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and not a lot of other pitchers.

But while Sabathia will be printing money in free agency the next few years, the Giants have a few years of Lincecum on the cheap.


As a sidenote, I feel the same way about Lester, who's just six months older than Lincecum. With the Sox clinching the postseason today, they should give him a short tuneup before the playoffs and that's it. Don't risk him; he has 204 innings this year and 63 last. He'll also have at least one start in the postseason.

Lincecum and the Cy Young

The Chronicle advances the (inevitable) Hometown Paper's Ridiculous Cy Young Award argument by pushing The Franchise.

Ehhhhhh, no. Lincecum is having a very good year. You can make a great argument that he's the clear second place winner. But as of today, Brandon Webb has more wins (19-15), more innings (188-185), more complete games (3-0), and more shutouts (1-0). Lincecum beats him on ERA (2.43-2.96) and strikeouts (210-157), but that's it. Oh, and Webb's team is in first place, nine games up on the Giants (not saying it should be a factor, but it is). If the season ended today, Webb wins, and if he gets to 20 wins, it's about over.

Maybe Webb will have a couple of bad starts, or maybe the Giants will skip Lincecum's last start once he gets over 200 innings. We shall see.

Lincecum Hurt

Well the good side of Lincecum taking a ball of his knee is that it may prevent him from overworking his shoulder.

After that last start, he's up to 162 innings. The Giants should be very extremely careful in bringing him back. If he needs to miss a start or two, now's the time to do it.

Giants-Dodgers

My cousin and her husband, a dedicated Dodger fan, visited San Francisco and we went to the game tonight. It was a terrific game. Tied 1-1 after 8, the Giants brought in their closer Brian Wilson (wait, not him; I meant Brian Wilson, sorry). After one scoreless inning, they yanked him and brought in Tyler Walker for the 10th, who immediately gave up a homer to Jeff Kent. The Giants came back and won it, but still, there was no reason to take Wilson out. He's their closer, their best pitcher. If Billy Sadler (who?) can throw two innings, Wilson can throw two.

The pregame ceremony was cool. They had the best Giants outfielders of the last 50 years came out of the dugout. Most of them aptly reflected the quality of the Giants over the last decades (i.e. Candy Maldonado, good thing he wasn't busy). There was one spot left in the ceremony. Then they played the music from The Natural and Willie Mays slowly walked in from center field. Everyone was cheering and then Bonds suddenly strolled out from left.

I didn't clap for Bonds, but I was happy to cheer for Willie Mays. As far as I'm concerned, he should always enter the field to The Natural.

A snide person would have noted that Willie Mays came out to The Natural; the comparison with Bonds was unstated....

Fred Lewis

Fred Lewis is the replacement for Barry Bonds in left field for the Giants. I would say that he's no Barry Bonds. Then I read this, and I was right. He's no Barry Bonds.

I'm going to root for him.

Lincecum, Cain

The Chronicle is apparently reading this blog.

As I mentioned before, Eddie, I do think he should go 200 innings this year. But not many more.

Incidentally, he didn't make the cover of Sports Illustrated, but Matt Cain is having a pretty good year too. Although he's 7-9 at the moment, his ERA is 3.60 (with a win tonight). He's a few months younger than Lincecum, and he's thrown 155 innings this year. He has more experience--he threw 190 two years ago and 200 last year. I worry that the damage has already been done. Those 190 innings were at age 21, the 200 at age 22. That's earlier than almost everyone on my earlier list.

The Giants have the potential for a great young staff. Even Zito sometimes remembers how to pitch. There's no reason to put them at risk by pushing them much above 200 innings this year.

Ed Cho Stop Reading Now

Ed Cho does not believe in pitch counts, nor innings thrown, etc. (He's also a communist, but that's not important right now.)

ESPN briefly mentioned that The Franchise has thrown 149 innings this year for the Giants. Last year he threw 146. He was 23 when the season started. Compared to the 16 pitchers listed in my earlier post (the 16 winningest pitchers since 1960), his innings are about average, if he gets to 200 this year. Of course, using these pitchers as a comparison skews the average, since by definition they did not burn out early. If I were the Giants, I'd shut him down once he gets to 200 innings.

They should not take any chances, seeing as they are 11 1/2 games out of first in baseball's weakest division.

Giants Cleaning House

It should have happened a couple of years ago, but finally it looks like they're ditching the old guys. Ray Durham is gone, which needed to happen. Even if they get nothing for him, at least they're not spending money on him.

Omar Vizquel needs to be next. As the Chronicle points out, though, it could be tough to deal a guy hitting so far below the Mendoza line (.166? Wow, that's awful). It's not exactly new news that he can't hit, but it's better to admit it now than waste more at bats on him.


The chickens are coming home to roost for Sabean. He tried to patch together an old lineup for years in hopes of getting to the World Series with Bonds. 2002 seems a long time ago.

Giants Win!

The G-men won 3-2 in ten innings today, based on Omar Vizquel's hitting. Vizquel is back from injury and hitting .281, which is better than last year's .246. The Giants better win a lot of 3-2 games, because their offense is as bad as expected.

As of today, they've scored 168 runs, tied with Kansas City and ahead of only the Padres, who are terrible. In 48 games, they're averaging 3.5 runs per game. Not so good, but not surprising either.

On the other hand, their pitching has been surprisingly bad. Team ERA is 4.46, just 12th in the National League.

Lincecum has been their only good starter. The other planned starters are either bad (Cain, Zito--6.25 ERA!!), or hurt (Lowry). Hence the nine combined starts for Kevin Correia and Patrick Misch (who?). It's gonna be a long year.

On the bright side, it's going to be really easy to get tickets.

12 runs. 5 games.

Yep, Our San Francisco Giants! They've scored 0, 2, 2, 4, and 4 runs. One victory. It's going to be a looooooong year. You don't win much scoring 2.4 runs a game.

It could be worse. In fact, it was worse one year ago, when they scored but 14 runs the first 7 games. That team "recovered" to average 4.2 runs per game, next to last in the National League. But last year they had Bonds.

Opening Day!

I know, the Sox played two games in Japan last week, and Washington opened their new park last night. But today was the real Opening Day.

A lot of results from today's games will carry over for the rest of the season. For instance, the Orioles lost. They're going to do a lot of losing this year. Baltimore is a bad team, and it has to play a lot of games in the division, where the Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays are very good, and the Devil Rays should finish .500. Baltimore will be lucky to win 70 games.

The Giants didn't just lose, they were also shutout. Not for the last time. It's going to be a painful, painful year, even for a team with a great rotation.

And Johan Santana won. That's going to happen a lot.