College Football

As I noted a year ago at this time, there's nothing happening in college football right now. So I figured I'd update the chart of the most dominant programs of the last 25 years. As before, the #1 team last year (LSU) gets 25 points, the #25 team gets one point. Teams lose one point per year, to the #1 team of 2006 (Florida) gets 24 points down to the #24 team, which gets one point, and so on. There are a few changes from last year:


Florida State is still in first, but their lead is shrinking fast, and will shrink again next year. They will lose 18 points, so they must finish #7 just to stay even. Similarly, Miami will lose 17 points. Those programs will eventually start to move up again, but probably not next year. Ohio State is tied for #3; and they only lose 11 points next year, so figure they will continue to rise. Ugh.

The biggest improvement was Missouri, which rode its #4 finish last year all the way to #36. They may well improve again next year, but not as much.

Just one school dropped out entirely. That would be Virginia. Next year, East Carolina and Fresno State better finish ranked, or they're gone. Meanwhile Missouri, Cincinnati, and Hawaii are new to the list.

As for Michigan, we dropped from 5 to 7, and we'll need to finish in the top ten next year or else we'll lose more points. It doesn't look good. Oklahoma and USC passed us last year, and this year could be Texas and LSU.

Maddux

I thought Greg Maddux would pass Clemens sometime in July. I was wrong. Maddux last won on May 10 and is stuck on 350 wins.

Lately, he's been outstanding. He's had five consecutive quality starts with no wins and one loss to show for it. His ERA is 3.17. He's having a great year.

His problem is his team. The Padres have scored even fewer runs than the Giants. Which is why they're tied for last place in the NL West.

Kevin Garnett

Part of the joy of being a Celtics fan this year is having Kevin Garnett on the team. I'd known about him peripherally in the past, but I paid more attention this year. He's such a likeable superstar because he cares so much.

I found this interview from a couple of years ago, when he was with Minnesota and things weren't going well. It's remarkable:



Seriously, I'm not sure I've ever seen something quite like this.

When he says he doesn't like losing, he's not kidding. When he says it's not about him, it's about his team, he's not kidding.

Galaxy

I went to the LA Galaxy-Earthquakes game last night in Oakland. I'd never seen an MLS game, and they had a good crowd, apparently the largest crowd in MLS history.

Beckham was quite good, probably the best player on the field. In person, you can see that he generally plays far wider on the field than anyone else. Everyone else would be bunched up on one side and he would be all alone on the other waiting for the ball. I would imagine that's because he's used to somewhat better teammates. For fifteen years he played at the best clubs in England and Spain, with better teammates, who are somewhat more used to using the entire field.

He's still an extremely accurate passer. He's got great vision and can pick out any of his teammates on the field, not just where they are, but where they will be when his pass gets to them.

Like the article said, he isn't very physical these days, or at least he wasn't last night. Maybe after all his ankle trouble last year, he made a decision to try to avoid getting hurt.

Sox Pitching

The Red Sox rotation presently consists of:

Bartolo Colon (4-1 with a 3.41 ERA. Yep, we all saw that coming)
Tim Wakefield
Justin Masterson (huh? He's 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA)
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester

I don't think anyone anticipated this.

After Schilling got hurt, the starters were Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Wakefield, and Buchholz. Colon and Masterson have actually been better than Beckett, so one can't complain.

NBA Refs

Now this is news.

The NBA ref who bet on games is alleging that the NBA urged its refs to throw the 2002 playoffs to the Lakers over the Kings. This is juicy.

Curt Schilling, of all people, described the problem that NBA refs face:

Every SINGLE play up and down the floor has MULTIPLE fouls being committed by multiple players. These guys are in close, every play. They are beating the crap out of each other, and the refs see it. That makes me think that the game is called and paced exactly how the refs want it to be.

Everything's a foul; it's all at the complete discretion of the refs about whether to call it.

Just wait until Congress gets involved. As they've shown before, Congress loves to dig into this stuff. NO ONE does Sanctimonious like members of Congress.


As a sidenote, the Celtics presently lead the series 2-1, so in theory they could win the next two games. I would bet dollars to donuts that the series will at least go back to Boston for Game 6. Zero chance the Celtics win the next two games.

Celtics

I was a Celtics fan growing up and then spent many years not caring because the team was so bad for so many years.

I'm watching again. Obviously, Game 2 was a lot of fun.

However. In a courtside seat of the new Garden was a Laker fan wearing an AC Green jersey. This raises all sorts of questions.

-why AC Green (note: this individual did not appear to be AC Green)?
-was this the only AC Green jersey ever purchased?
-seriously, why AC Green? Are there any other famous players for the Lakers?
-AC Green last played for the Lakers in 2000. His "glory years" were in the late 80s. Was this jersey really purchased then?
-this fan had tens of thousands of dollars to spend on that seat. If you have that much cash, would you really be seen in a fifteen year old AC Green jersey?
-is there an age limit on men wearing basketball jerseys in public?

Accountability

The New York Times has an interesting article about Carly Fiorina, who's advising McCain. Her tenure at HP was not much of a success and she was fired.

But she was always good at sales. The article includes a marvelous quote:

“Well, see, the good news about business is, results count. And the results have been very clear. The results have been crystal clear. From the day I was fired, every quarter, even before they had a new C.E.O., has been record after record. That doesn’t happen unless the foundation’s been built.”

Sooooooo, after she was fired, HP's had record results every quarter, and we're to take that as evidence that she is a success? What's Michael Brown doing these days?

Momentous Day in United States History

Today, June 3, 2008, at approximately 8:15 PM EDT, Randy Johnson struck out Mike Cameron, passing Roger Clemens for the second most strikeouts in major league history. He now trails only Nolan Ryan (by about 1100 strikeouts; he's never gonna catch him).



What, did something else important happen today?

Election Day

It's worth pointing out that if our fine state government hadn't moved our presidential primary, then Californians would vote on Obama and Hillary today and would decide the Democratic nominee for president.

I was wrong about Randy Johnson. I thought he would pass Clemens sometime around the 4th of July. Instead, it'll probably happen this week. Johnson struck out 19 guys in his last two starts and he's now tied with Clemens. I think Johnson pitches Tuesday, so he should pass him then.

USA Soccer

We played England today and lost 2-0. It wasn't really close; England was waaaaaaaaaaaay better than us.

This is not necessarily an indictment of our team. England looked good. Enough to make one wonder how this team could tie Macedonia (Macedonia???) in 2006. (If I was the Queen of England, I'd totally fire the coach who couldn't beat Macedonia. Oh, wait, they already did that. Firing him isn't enough; off with his 'ead!)

I'm just happy that our national team is playing these hard games. England's really good. Next week we play Spain in Spain, and then Argentina the following. Those three teams in consecutive games are outstanding competition for us. I think we need to get tougher and more used to playing the most difficult teams if we want to advance farther in the World Cup.

...now pitching

I don't wish to alarm anyone, but Bartolo Colon is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Sox. This means I have to pay attention. I sorta thought he was long out of baseball, but he actually pitched last year for the Angels. He won the Cy Young in 2005, so although it seems he's coming back from the dead, it's really just been a couple of years. I can't imagine him lasting all season, but who knows?


Now that he has two victories, I take back my earlier snide comments about his physique.

Mars

We have a spacecraft taking pictures on Mars.


If you don't think that's really cool, there's something wrong with you.

Giants Win!

The G-men won 3-2 in ten innings today, based on Omar Vizquel's hitting. Vizquel is back from injury and hitting .281, which is better than last year's .246. The Giants better win a lot of 3-2 games, because their offense is as bad as expected.

As of today, they've scored 168 runs, tied with Kansas City and ahead of only the Padres, who are terrible. In 48 games, they're averaging 3.5 runs per game. Not so good, but not surprising either.

On the other hand, their pitching has been surprisingly bad. Team ERA is 4.46, just 12th in the National League.

Lincecum has been their only good starter. The other planned starters are either bad (Cain, Zito--6.25 ERA!!), or hurt (Lowry). Hence the nine combined starts for Kevin Correia and Patrick Misch (who?). It's gonna be a long year.

On the bright side, it's going to be really easy to get tickets.

New Bonds Indictment

The feds indicted Bonds again. A copy of it is here.

To review the bidding, he was first indicted in November.

What hasn't changed is the key paragraph 9:

During the criminal investigation, evidence was obtained including positive tests for the presence of anabolic steroids and other performance enhancing substances for Bonds and other professional athletes.

Each count of the indictment points to testimony by Bonds in front of the grand jury that he didn't take steroids.

Legal sidenote: a grand jury is like a jury, except it does investigations, not trials. It's made up of ordinary people, and it sits in private, not in public. This grand jury was investigating BALCO, so it questioned all sorts of people related to that case, includikng athletes (Bonds, Tim Montgomery, Giambi, etc.)

A grand jury can give you immunity, which means that you won't be prosecuted for anything you say there, as long as you tell the truth. So if Bonds told the truth to the grand jury, even if he admitted taking steroids, he couldn't be prosecuted for it.

However, if you lie to a grand jury, they're going to come after you. Giambi's hitting prowess is vanishing, but at least he's not under criminal indictment.

Clemens, History

Roger Clemens isn't going to pitch again. Even Yahoo Sports has removed him from their active list. So he'll retire with 354 wins.

Maddux just won game 350, so he ought to pass Clemens sometime in July.

As I noted a year ago, Clemens' lead has been shrinking since 1991.

In addition to "Winningest Pitcher of His Generation", he'll probably lose the "Strikeout King of his Generation" title sometime later this summer too, if Randy Johnson stays healthy. I tracked the strikeout difference between them earlier. Clemens got a few more strikeouts since that last post, while Johnson was hurt, and they were about tied last year. So far Johnson is punching out 5.6 guys per start. As of today, Clemens is 28 strikeouts ahead of him:

Randy Johnson's back could give out at any time, but if he can stay healthy, he should pass Clemens around the Fourth of July.

Preservatives

With my spaghetti tonight, I'm having Whole Foods All Natural Roasted Red Pepper pasta sauce. Why let the world know? Well, the lid says "Best before JUL/24/05". I guess it was in the back of my shelf and somehow has been passed over the last three years.

Now I don't expect any ill effects (it smells just like normal pasta sauce), if the paramedics need to figure out what it was the put me in the hospital, kindly direct them to the inside of my refrigerator, where I will keep the leftover sauce.


That is all.

Randy Johnson

I apologize for the delay. I'm now back in action.

And I'm starting with Randy Johnson and my moderate obsession with winning 300 games. Johnson's presently at 286, having gone 2-1 this year. Last summer I doubted his chances. They're still not great, but I'm rooting for him.

Can he get 14 more wins this year? I doubt it, especially if his ERA continues to be 5.06. It seems that his back could give out at any time, and I don't see him going through another long rehab. If he can't get it this year, will he want to come back in 2009? Let's just hope he makes it this year.

He doesn't have to be "The Man" in Arizona. The Snakes are looking gooooood at 23-12. Maybe he can pick up some wins against other teams' #4 and #5 starters. I hope so.

Olympic Torch

I hoped to see the Olympic Torch this afternoon so I went down to the Embarcadero about 1 PM. The original route was along the Embarcadero and would end in front of the Ferry Building.

I saw the torch in Boston in 1996. A guy ran beside the Boston Public Garden followed by a Georgia State Police BMW, which was bizarre (BMW must have been an official sponsor). The BMW was driven by a obese man in a Georgia State Police uniform, which was, well, not so bizarre.

Today was different. Lots of shouting, Chinese Flags, Tibetan flags, people chanting, etc. I got a free Save Darfur shirt and I was all set. There was a fair amount of people yelling at each other nose to nose, and occasional shoving, but thankfully no violence.

I couldn't help but notice the rather limited repertoire of debate skills by the pro-Chinese government crowd. Waving their brand new Chinese flags, they would generally chant "Liar Liar Liar" when a large contingent of people with Tibetan flags walked past. Often they would should "How much are you being paid to be here?" Which raises the question of how much *they* were being paid to be there.

A few of them tried to shout in my face, which I countered by talking back to them. Their first line was to ask why I would oppose China in Darfur when the US was in Iraq. They seemed surprised and puzzled that I opposed the Iraq war. Then they tried to point out that China never attacked other countries. After I mentioned Korea and Vietnam (where China was clobbered), this tack was swiftly modified to 'China never occupies other countries'.


There was some irony to all of the pro-China marchers. They were participating in public debate, where different viewpoints can be aired and people can disagree. It's the sort of event that couldn't happen in China itself.


In the end, I think changing the route was the correct decision. There was a risk of violence if the city had insisted on running the torch along the Embarcadero. The Chinese Government had hoped to have a cheesy preposterous tedius gala ceremony at the end. Thanksfully, the city pulled the plug on that. There's no need for someone to get hurt (the Chinese Government already has plenty of blood on its hands; no need to spill any more).

Cards!

I admit, I thought that Cardinals were going to be bad this year. Really bad. They may well still end up as a bad team, but for now they're 5-2, half a game behind Milwaukee. Then again, I didn't think the Cardinals would have a team ERA of 2.32 and five quality starts in the first seven games. (All hail Dave Duncan!)

That probably won't last (Kyle Lohse, for example isn't going to sport an ERA of 0.00 all year), but if the staff can hang on until their actual starters get back later this year, maybe they have a shot at winning the division. There aren't any dominant teams in the division (sorry Eddie), so maybe 90 wins will be sufficient. This is a start.

12 runs. 5 games.

Yep, Our San Francisco Giants! They've scored 0, 2, 2, 4, and 4 runs. One victory. It's going to be a looooooong year. You don't win much scoring 2.4 runs a game.

It could be worse. In fact, it was worse one year ago, when they scored but 14 runs the first 7 games. That team "recovered" to average 4.2 runs per game, next to last in the National League. But last year they had Bonds.

So bizarre it must be true

This is apparently not an April Fools joke.

A bunch of schoolgirls were touring Fenway Park and one of them was attacked by a hawk that apparently lives there. It swooped down and scratched her head, drawing blood. Incredibly, someone was taking pictures at the time.

The girl's name? Alexa Rodriguez. Score one point for the hawk.

Opening Day!

I know, the Sox played two games in Japan last week, and Washington opened their new park last night. But today was the real Opening Day.

A lot of results from today's games will carry over for the rest of the season. For instance, the Orioles lost. They're going to do a lot of losing this year. Baltimore is a bad team, and it has to play a lot of games in the division, where the Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays are very good, and the Devil Rays should finish .500. Baltimore will be lucky to win 70 games.

The Giants didn't just lose, they were also shutout. Not for the last time. It's going to be a painful, painful year, even for a team with a great rotation.

And Johan Santana won. That's going to happen a lot.

Torch Run

Well this is encouraging.

The police say that they won't restrict protests when the Olympic torch comes to town. Now they just have to release the route.

Yessssss!

Naturally, I think this is terrific news.

Oxygen!

Finally!

Tibet

While San Francisco waffles, kudos to Nancy Pelosi:

If freedom-loving people throughout the world do not speak out against China's oppression in China and Tibet, we have lost all moral authority to speak on behalf of human rights anywhere in the world....The situation in Tibet is a challenge to the conscience of the world

Olympics

The Olympic Torch is scheduled to come through San Francisco April 9 on its (schmaltzy marketing-driven) tour of the world before heading to Beijing.

This is all very well and good, except that China is very touchy these days about any protests against its actions in Tibet (i.e. invading a sovereign country, shooting people, etc.). This affects San Francisco because the organizers of the event here are trying to keep even the route of the torch secret to hinder protestors. It sounds like they cannot even stomach the idea that having protestors near the torch--apparantly that might hurt the torch's feelings. They also talk about herding protestors into "free speech zones", which would presumably mean keeping them out elsewhere.

This is horrendous. I was under the impression that our entire country is a free speech zone. It is insulting and absurd to try to limit protestors here, especially people protesting against a foreign government. Eventually, the city will have to back down and the route will become public. I'm sure that when it does, the protestors against China will be out in force, as they should be.

Dang.

Michigan Basketball Wins Tournament Game!

Whoo-hoo!

Ehhh, the Big 10 tournament. Against Iowa. It's generally not a good sign when the first sentence of the game summary reads:

Michigan missed 13 shots in a row during a stretch in the second half.

But somehow Michigan won the game. Michigan plays again tomorrow and I believe after that I'll be able to resume not paying attention.

Bartolo Colon

The Sox have somehow brought Bartolo Colon to spring training. On the one hand, he won 64 games in four years from 2002-2005 and won the Cy Young in 2005. On the other, he's tailed off badly since then and (how to say this gracefully?) he's looking rather big boned these days.

In the "I don't know which way it cuts" category is the fact that his listed birthday is May 24, 1973. So he's 35 in Dominican Republic Years.


Back when he was in Cleveland, I would complain that he was a headhunter. But that was a long time ago and I'm prepared to let bygones be bygones because it's always good to have more pitching.

...getting closer...

I went for a run along the Embarcadero yesterday and ran past the Phonebooth. One of its cool features is that one can see the diamond from outside the right field wall.

When I last ran past a couple of weeks ago it was all torn up (they had one of those motorcycle-jumping-dirt-heaps events there a month ago). Now the grass is green and it looks great.


Which is not to say that the Giants will be any good. They had posters up with their marketing slogan this year. The theme seems to be "______ is a gamer." As in "19 years, 11 Gold Gloves, Omar Vizquel is a gamer."

Ehhhhh, he may be a gamer, but he can't hit. Vizquel was the worst hitting shortstop in the National League by FAR last year. He had the lowest OPS of anyone with 500 at bats and Jimmy Rollins had more than TWICE AS MANY total bases. I suppose he is a gamer, though.

Iraq costs

Aside from the cost in blood, this war is also costing us money. Lots of money. Like, two trillion dollars. With a "t".

Here's a story from 2006 pointing out that the war could cost as much as one trillion dollars. Now it's doubled. More interesting is how the Administration originally estimated the whole thing would cost "just" $50 billion. Oops.

Mitchell Report

American Lawyer magazine is perhaps not the most widely read publication out there, but it had a moderately interesting article on the Mitchell Report.

Apparently it cost Bud Selig* $20 million. Was it money well spent? I don't know, but it sure would have been a lot easier if he had taken action ten years ago, or five years ago.

The article does make it very clear that Mitchell reached out repeatedly to the Players Association. Roger Clemens can yammer on all he wants about how easy he is to find, but that's hardly George Mitchell's fault. He ought to be complaining to his agents and the Players Association.

Clemens!

Seriously, this Clemens story is gold.

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform was kind enough to lay out his various lies and half-truths in glorious detail.

Does it really make sense to go after Clemens for perjury? There are, ahem, a few more important problems out there.

As I've said before, jail ought to be for punishment, not deterrence. However, like with Martha Stewart (and Lil' Kim), there's something to be said for throwing the occasional Big Name in jail when there's a clear case of perjury. I bet there were plenty of people who paid attention when Martha Stewart was hauled off, and there would be lots of ballplayers who would sit up and take notice if Clemens went to the Big House.

Schilling Out

I don't know that Curt Schilling will ever pitch again.

That certainly clears up the "problem" of having a six man rotation. Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Wakefield, and Buchholz are a pretty good staff. They'll need Julian Tavarez again this year, because there's no way that Lester and Buchholz make 35 starts apiece. Tavarez isn't a bad option for a spot starter.

It wouldn't surprise me if Schilling came back for the last couple of months. Between Wakefield, Lester, and Buchholz, they'll need a new arm then anyway. I don't know if the Sox will make the post-season, but since I think Schilling is a borderline Hall of Fame guy right now, another couple of good post-season starts would help his case considerably.

I went for a run yesterday and I noticed that I was wearing Asics shoes, Nike socks, and Adidas shorts. Is that the success of branding, or is that the failure of branding? I dunno.


This is boring. I am so ready for Opening Day.

Clemens

Among the *many* ludicrous things Clemens said yesterday was a bizarre discussion of his availability to George Mitchell. Someone asked him why he didn't respond to Mitchell when Mitchell asked to talk to him when he was preparing the report.

Clemens said that he didn't know that Mitchell wanted to talk with him and went on at length about how easy he is to find, emphasizing how he responded to Bud Selig when Selig asked him to be a member of the USA team for the World Baseball Classic. He blames Bud Selig for not contacting him.

Obviously this is wildly irrelevant. Although he didn't pick up the phone to call Clemens personally, Mitchell DID contact his agents on multiple occasions. I can't imagine that his agents didn't pass word along to Clemens that he was under investigation. It's ridiculous for Clemens to try to blame Mitchell or Selig.

I'd wager that his agents told him that Mitchell was asking about him, but they also advised him to ignore Mitchell, which was the same advice the players union was giving. Oops.

Clemens!

The Clemens hearings were today, at least the first round. Tom Verducci has a great summary.

At this point, I don't think *anyone* is believable. It's clear that McNamee should never be trusted. I'm sure some of the things he's saying are the truth. But he's now changing his story too many times for me to keep track.

Clemens is also entirely unbelievable. He keeps changing his story, and he never managed to describe why McNamee would lie about what happened.

I think part of the problem is that professional athletes aren't used to having anyone actually pay attention to what they say. They are asked dumb questions ("What does this game mean for you?") their whole life, they give the same stock answers ("We're taking things one game at a time") and then repeat. Their job isn't to be honest, it's to perform on the field. They are used to lying, both the big lies and the small ones. Normally, they are the ones who choose what questions to answer and which sportswriters to ignore. Here, the dynamic is reversed. Congress chooses the questions, but they have to come up with something for every one of them.

Outside the bubble, where people actually pay attention to their every word, and where their questioners have the power, they stumble. They're not used to this.



Not surprisingly, these hearings give sportswriters the opportunity to look ridiculous. Jason Stark:

What I'll be looking for -- what you should be looking for -- is who squirms, who stammers, who hedges. Look for body language. Look for who can't recall what.

Hey Jayson, do you by any chance remember the last round of congressional hearings? Do you remember if there was a player who had the whole 'convincing body language' thing down? Remember how that turned out? Maybe don't trust the body language quite to much.

More steroids

For a long time, Barry Bonds and his lawyers would insist that this whole steroids investigation was really just a ploy to "get" Bonds.

While it played well in San Francisco, it wasn't really true, and they're going to have a hard time getting anyone to believe that argument anymore.

Hall of Fame

Time to start thinking about baseball.

What active pitchers will make the Hall of Fame?

Maddux, Glavine, and Randy Johnson are clearly in. Clemens may or may not be added to that group pending the steroids investigation.

There there are a bunch of guys who may or may not make it:

Mussina, Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Smoltz, Pettitte. I think we can discard Pettitte too, due to steroids.

Mussina has the most wins, 250. He also has a respectable postseason record of 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA. On the other hand, he won 19 games twice, never won the World Series or a Cy Young, and pitched in just three All Star games. His prospects are doubtful; he's never had a signature moment that everyone will remember.

Then there's Schilling. A late bloomer, he has 216 wins, most of them after the age of 30. However, he's also 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in the postseason, which is outstanding. He has three 20 win seasons. He won three World Series rings and his postseason performances in 2001 and 2004 are legendary. I think he will make the Hall. It would help to have another good year, although that may be doubtful at this point. I still think he makes it.

Pedro Martinez is 36, so he could pitch on for a few more years. As of now, he has 209 wins, with just 93 losses. He has a postseason record of 6-2 and a 3.40 ERA. He's got one ring with Boston and was a member of that potentially great 1994 Montreal Expos team. He also has three Cy Young awards, and six Koufaxian years from 1997-2002 when he went 104-32. In 2000, in the midst of the Steroid Era, his ERA was 1.74. It bears repeating: an ERA of 1.74. I think Pedro would probably make the Hall of Fame today--did I mention the three Cy Youngs?--but with another couple of decent years, he'll be in for sure.

Smoltz is a tougher call. I think he has a completely unique career. I don't know of any other starter who closed for three years and went back to being a dominant starter. He has "only" 207 wins, but he's also 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA in the postseason. The Braves made the playoffs every year, but only have one World Series title. I don't know about Smoltz. He did win a Cy Young but has just one season of more than 17 wins. As of now, I don't think he's in.


Career wins are a strange thing, though. Jamie Moyer has more wins than Schilling, even though Moyer didn't really start collecting them until his mid 30s. And Kenny Rodgers has more than Pedro. But neither of them are going to the Hall of Fame.

Mitt Romney

So long!

When Romney first started running, I figured he would characterize himself as a relatively nonideological, pro-business, socially moderate former governor who would emphasize his management experience and competence. I figured he would be a pretty strong candidate in the general election if he got the Republican nomination.

At some point he must have decided he had to completely reinvent himself as a Bible-thumping conservative, ignoring all of his accomplishments over the last ten years. Then he kept changing messages until no one knew what he was for.

Except extreme partisanship. I find the following quote, which he made in his concession speech, vile and inexcusable:


If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.


This is outrageous. How would a victory by Clinton or Obama be a surrender to terror?

Good riddance, Romney. Go back to your millions and leave the rest of us alone.

Johan Santana

I think Santana is going to be great for the Mets. He's been the best pitcher in baseball the last four years. With the National League's weaker lineups, there's no reason he can't win 20 games next year.

(I would be remiss if I didn't note my outstanding record of analyzing blockbuster pitching deals.)

So Long! Farewell!

Sayonara, Rudy Giuliani!

Finally you can go back to being a jerk, further alienating your family, and making scads of money from Hugo Chavez. We'll miss you.

Santana to the Mets?

Sports Illustrated is reporting that Johan Santana will end up on the Mets.

This is obviously huge for the Mets. Life's a lot easier with a #1 starter in the rotation.

Also I think it's crushing for the Yankees. As I've said before, the staff was bad last year. As of now, their 2008 rotation is

Wang (3.70 ERA, a solid #2 starter)
Pettitte (4.05 ERA last year; #3 starter)
Mussina (5.15 ERA last year; a #4 starter at best)
Kei Igawa (67 innings pitched in major league baseball)
and choose among
Phil Hughes (72 innings pitched in major league baseball)
Joba Chamberlain (24 innings pitched in major league baseball)
Ian Kennedy (19 innings pitched in major league baseball)

Pettitte and Mussina are on the downward slopes of their careers. There's a lot of potential among the bottom three guys, but still. Unless the Yankees want to destroy their careers, none of the last three guys is throwing 200 innings next year. They could stay in the bullpen all year, but it seems very unlikely that any of them will make any playoff starts.

The Yankees *needed* Johan Santana. If the Mets end up with him, the Yankees must get someone else to start, right?

The Sports Doldrums

This is such a boring time of year for sports fans. Spring training is far away. The bowl games are done. I could theoretically care about the NBA, but why start paying attention before the playoffs?

Christopher Hitchens, are you reading this blog?

Mike Huckabee on the confederate flag:

You don't like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag. In fact, if somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we'd tell 'em what to do with the pole, that's what we'd do.

Shame, Mike, shame.

Clemens

This Clemens story is going to be great. He just filed a defamation lawsuit against his old trainer, Brian McNamee.

The legal case is so weak that it must be for show.

In nonlawyer talk, to win a defamation case a plaintiff has to show that the defendant made a false statement and that he (the plaintiff) suffered damages. Was McNamee's statement false? Obviously, that's the big debate--whether McNamee told the truth. Clemens would have to show that McNamee lied. Seems unlikely, considering that McNamee testified to the Feds under penalty of perjury.

Even worse for Clemens, it's harder for "public figures" to win a defamation case. The theory is that public figures voluntarily put themselves out there to be praised by people, so they also have to accept more criticism. As a public figure, Clemens will also have to show that McNamee acted with "actual malice". I don't think he can show actual malice.

McNamee made his comments under oath to the Feds. Even if McNamee is lying, and it would be crazy for him to lie under oath, it doesn't make sense that he would have actual malice to Clemens. (I suppose it's theoretically possible that he has a big grudge against Clemens and made all this up to "get" him, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.)

In any event, I'm sure the legal ridiculousness is just starting!

One More Michigan Post

...at least for the next few months.

Michigan's win over Florida was great, of course. I also found it a little sad. In the game, Michigan opened up the offense with four or five receivers and looked to spread out Florida's defense so Henne could pick them apart.

The offense looked great. It was fantastic. Our individual receivers are so big and strong and fast that Florida's defensive backs couldn't cover them one on one.

So the big question is why has Michigan never run this offense before? Michigan has the talent (Michigan always has the talent). Why not open the offense before the bowl game? I know that Henne was hurt much of the year. But why not install the offense from the start of the year? For that matter, why not use it in last year's Rose Bowl?

The problem with Lloyd Carr and/or Mike Debord (Michigan's offensive coordinator the last several years) is that he plays too conservatively. The sad part of this game is that we could have run a more imaginative offense the last several years, scored more points, and probably Lloyd would have gone out after a successful season, not just a successful game.

But that's all in the past. If we can count on Rodriguez for anything, we can know that the days of a dull offense are long gone.

Go Blue!

What a day, what a great way to send Lloyd Carr off.

Clemens

Wait, Roger Clemens is now going to hire private investigators to look at Brian McNamee, the source of the Mitchell report's allegations against him?

Welllllllll, ok. But why didn't he do it when George Mitchell contacted him? Why did Clemens stonewall Mitchell? This doesn't exactly help his credibility.

Pettitte

Andy Pettitte was named in the Mitchell report for taking human growth hormone and after previously saying he was clean he came out with the following:

If what I did was an error in judgment on my part, I apologize. I accept responsibility for those two days. Everything else written or said about me knowingly using illegal drugs is nonsense, wrong, and hurtful. I have the utmost respect for baseball and have always tried to live my life in a way that would be honorable. I wasn't looking for an edge; I was looking to heal.

What? "If what I did was an error in judgment"? No! It *was* an error in judgment. You were wrong! And you lied about it! By not admitting that you were wrong, you are not accepting responsibility.

And please, "I wasn't looking for an edge; I was looking to heal." Wrong again! Looking to heal is an edge.

Rich Rodriguez

Is the new Michigan coach.

Not who I expected. I don't know much about him, but he runs a spread offense that apparently gets a ton of yards. This is a big change. And encouraging. I like it. Change is (sometimes) good.

Rodriguez won 48 games the last five years at West Virginia. Lloyd Carr won 45 at Michigan.

The Mitchell Report

The Mitchell report is out and it is big news. Big big big.

There are about a thousand tangents to this story. Here are three:

-I don't think anyone ought to believe that the list of players is comprehensive. Mitchell got just a couple of suppliers to talk. They were surely not the only enablers out there.

-The Players Union is justifiably roasted. The union tried to obstruct Mitchelll at every turn. They would have been *far* better off to just blow the doors open with information and get everything out in public at once. Since information is going to keep coming out over the months and (ugh) years, it's going to be far worse for them. Donald Fehr sees everything as a fight. Sometimes he was right, but in this case he was wrong. And he's going to reap what he sowed for a long time.

-Roger Clemens. Clemens Clemens Clemens. Along with every other named player, he refused Mitchell's offer to talk before the report came out. (Surely this was another canny ploy by the union. Oops.)

The evidence against him is damning. Tom Verducci correlated Clemens' steroid use with his 1998 numbers. Before steroids, he was 6-6 with a 3.27 ERA. After he was 14-0 with a 2.29 ERA. It's worth noting that the last four years before 1998 Clemens was 40-39. It looks like he was indeed on the downside of his career.

The question is what Clemens is going to do. He doesn't have a lot of good options.

I don't know whether he cares about the court of public opinion. He could become a recluse, a la Mark McGwire, and avoid the public entirely.

He could have his publicist issue some bland statement, and retire. Refuse to talk about the past. This is what I bet he'll do.

Or he could come clean. Admit what happened in every detail. It would be fascinating. It would also require honesty and humility. No chance.

Election

2008 is going to be a strange election year. In the last several elections, we've never had as many viable candidates (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, maybe Richardson; Giuliani, McCain, Romney, maybe Huckabee, surely Ron Paul can't win, can he?). In the recent past, each party has had either one or two strong candidates

2004 (Bush; Kerry, Edwards)
2000 (Bush, McCain; Gore, Bill Bradley--remember him?)
1996 (Clinton; Dole, Pat Buchanan)
1992 (Bush; Clinton, Tsongas; Perot)
etc.

Anyway, the trend has been to compress the schedule of primaries, because with only a couple of strong candidates, everything would get settled after Iowa and New Hampshire. States keep moving their primaries earlier in the year.

This year may be different. If three strong candidates remain after Iowa and New Hampshire, it may well be that they divide the various states on February 5 too, because no one will have momentum. That would be very odd, and it may well be that the later states (Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont on March 4) will cast the deciding votes.

Niners

I hadn't been to a Niners game before, but a friend of mine came to town to see them play the Vikings. I can now say with certainty that the Niners stink.

The team's been bad for a long time. As evidence of that fact, there were four jerseys that were far and away the most popular at the game today. In rough order, they were: Montana, Rice, Young, Lott. Needless to say, none of those fellows have been, shall we say, "good" in a long time.

Tigers

So are the Tigers (the Tigers?) now the team to beat in the American League?

They gave up some prospects, but everyone loves Miguel Cabrara and I'm a huge fan of Dontrelle Willis.

Their rotation now includes Verlander (18-6), Bonderman (tons of talent), Willis, and Kenny Rogers (hey, maybe he has something left).

Their lineup was good last year (second in the AL in runs), and now they add Cabrara (.400 OBP, .565 slugging). They're going to score a ton of runs.

My law school roommate is a die hard Tribe fan. I will not reproduce the contents of the email he sent me this morning on this family blog, but suffice to say that he was not happy.

On the other hand, the Tribe is going to be really good next year, with Sabathia and Cabrara coming back. I expect the AL wild card to come out of the central division, not the east.

Ranking systems

Ranking sports teams is inherently difficult. What is a ranking supposed to mean--the best team right now or the most deserving team over the course of a season?

The best way to rank teams is by playing a long season and declaring the winner to be the league champion. This is how it's done, for instance, in European soccer leagues. There are 20 teams in England, and they each play every other team for a 38 game season. Whoever finishes on top after the season is the champion. No playoffs, no Super Bowl; a team proves it's the best over the course of the season.

Baseball used to do this, before the playoffs were expanded. Now, mediocre teams routinely win the World Series while superior teams lose in the playoffs.

As I noted before, there's always lots of complaining about college football rankings. I don't think they're perfect, but given the nature of the system (120 competitors, each playing 12 games) they're pretty good.

College football playoff

Every year sportswriters uncritically dust off last year's column blasting the BCS, how it's so incredibly confusing (it uses computers!), and insisting that a playoff is the only "fair" way to decide the national champion, and that we "need" a playoff.

As I noted last year, the first, and maybe most obvious, problem with a playoff is figuring out how many teams to invite.

This year's chart is interesting. I said last year that undefeated teams from major conferences indisputably deserve to play for the national title. No such teams exist this year, so major conference champions with only one loss indisputably deserve a shot. As it happens, Ohio State is the only such team. The next group is big, because one must include so many two loss teams. I suppose Hawaii ought to be in the list, barely, because they're undefeated, even if they didn't play anybody. Kansas narrowly made the cut because they're a one loss team from a power conference, even if they missed most of the good teams in the Big 12. I left West Virginia out, but barely:


So if one is going to have a "fair" playoff this year, one needs to invite nine teams.

Of all the reasons against a playoff, I think this is the best one. How many teams? It's easy to criticize, but criticism implies there's a better solution out there. If there is, I haven't seen it.

Maddux

Greg Maddux signed a one year contract with the Padres.

He's now just seven wins behind Clemens on the career wins list. I have to think that Clemens is done--no one is going to pay him $20 million to make seventeen starts and go 6-6.

So if he stays healthy, Maddux should pass Clemens sometime next summer.

Meanwhile Glavine signed back with the Braves for one more year. He's probably good for about ten more wins, so he'll finish in the top twenty if he stays healthy.

Clemens goes to the Hall in 2012, Glavine in 2013, and Maddux? I dunno. He still won 14 games last year....

Lloyalty

Sorry for the title.

Lloyd Carr is unquestionably a loyal man. Loyal to his friends, his players, his athletic director. This is a good thing, generally. Unfortunately, his loyalty to Mike DeBord was misplaced and ended up tarnishing his legacy. Mike DeBord may be a good person, a worthwhile friend, but he was not a good offensive coordinator for Michigan, especially not the last couple of years.

In the end, Lloyd Carr was loyal to a bunch of relatively weak assistant coaches. Debord is the most obvious example, but Fred Jackson (running backs coach and "Associate Head Coach"-huh?) has been on the staff forever. Weak assistant coaches are death in college (or pro) football.

In contrast with Lloyd, Bo Schembechler had tons of very strong assistant coaches. Numerous of his assistants later went on to be successful head coaches at the top level: Don Nehlen at West Virginia, Bill McCartney at Colorado, Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr at Michigan, Cam Cameron of Indiana and the Dolphins, and these are just the ones off the top of my head. Oh, and Les Miles too....

Unfortunately, Lloyd'd assistant coaches just weren't as good. He's obviously not the first person to let personal loyalty overshadow incompetence. But it's a shame that it will impact his legacy.

Steroids

Baseball players are not, generally speaking, deep thinkers. Regardless of their intelligence, success in baseball requires a short memory. This is a roundabout way of saying that it's not often that one looks to baseball players for commentary on current events. Every now and again, though, they surprise me. David Ortiz said the following:

It's like they've placed that issue on the same level as Iraq. It doesn't make sense to hear people talk more about whether Barry Bonds used steroids than about people dying in Iraq.

Well said, Papi. Hope the knee heals quickly!

Missouri-West Virginia

That sounds like a depressing national championship game, no? I'm sure the NCAA and its advertisers would prefer that these two teams lose next week and the #3 (Ohio State) and #4 (Georgia) teams move ahead of them.

Mike Lowell Returns!

And I'm happy. Especially happy this is a three year deal. With some obvious exceptions, the Sox have been disciplined about not signing guys to overlong contracts. As I've said before, not signing Pedro (59 starts the last three years) to a four year contract was a great call.

I doubt Lowell will be as good as he was last year. Last year his numbers were in line with his 2003 and 2004 seasons, but he'll probably regress. Hopefully he'll regress slowly, and they'll get decent production out of him the next couple of years.

Not what Michigan is looking for

As I mentioned yesterday, Lloyd Carr was an unusual football coach with his erudition and wide range of interests.

I think that perhaps Nick Saban is more typical. After Alabama lost to Louisiana-Monroe (!), he said:

Changes in history usually occur after some kind of catastrophic event. It may be 9-11, which sort of changed the spirit of America relative to catastrophic events. Pearl Harbor kind of got us ready for World War II, and that was a catastrophic event.

Well that's embarrassing. Not only is it offensive, but also ignorant, "Pearl Harbor kind of got us ready for World War II"? What is he talking about?

When Michigan's Athletic Director says: "I want to know how many driving-under-the-influence (citations) a potential coach has had. I want to know if he's a deadbeat in terms of paying his bills. I want to know anything that is a pattern in terms of past behavior that could be an embarrassment to Michigan", this is what he's talking about. Ugh.

More on Carr

Video of his last press conference is here.

The press conference showed all of his great qualities. He started by reciting a poem (?):

By your own soul, learn to live
And if men thwart you take no heed.
If men hate you have no care.
Sing your song, dream your dream,
Hope your hope and pray your prayer.

That's, uhhh, Pakenham Beatty, who's obscure enough that he doesn't have a page on Wikipedia.

I'm not an expert on college football coaches, but I doubt that many of them spend much time reading poetry. I also read that he has a dictionary outside his office, and before they come talk to him, his players have to learn a word and discuss it with him. Again, something tells me that's not exactly the norm among his peer coaches.

Maybe he's a bit of an anachronism, but at least he's anachronistic in the right ways. I haven't always been happy with his decisions on the football field, but I can't remember him *ever* embarrassing the university.

It's a lot more fun to remember his successes. I doubt I will ever have as much fun at a footbal game as I had watching #1 Michigan beat #4 Ohio State in 1997. Nor do I ever expect to see a college football team play as well at #4 Michigan played against #1 Penn State (in State College) that same year. That Penn State game was ridiculous. How often is the #1 team in the country down 31-0 at home in the third quarter?

I'm happy for him. Maybe he held on a year too long, but when you win a national championship, run a clean program, and make your players learn new words, I think you're entitled to hang on a year too long.

Lloyd Carr

I was at the Rose Bowl last year when Michigan played USC.

USC won 32-18, but it was 3-3 at halftime, and Michigan would have been ahead but for a bad pass by Chad Henne.

When it became clear that USC couldn't run the ball, their coaches made an adjustment, changed their game plan, threw the ball every down, and broke the game open. That's worth emphasizing. They won the game by throwing out their gameplan and changing.

I think Lloyd Carr is almost a brilliant football coach. He runs a clean program, rarely has a down year, and recruits great players. His only problem, the thing that prevents him from actually being a great football coach, is his stubbornness. I can't remember a game where Michigan made an adjustment mid game and changed their game plan. Never!

His stubbornness also manifests itself in his assistant coaches. Mike Debord has been the offensive coordinator for years, except for a few years when he was a mediocre head coach at Central Michigan. He's not getting the job done, but Lloyd Carr is fanatically loyal to his people.

All of which is a way of saying that it's time for Carr to go. There is a lot to like about him, but his stubborn nature means that he cannot or will not change. If he had brought in an innovative offensive coordinator a couple of years ago, he might well remain at Michigan. Not anymore. There's a time to say enough is enough, and this is that time.

Bring on Les Miles!

Bonds

Barry Bonds was indicted yesterday in federal court for lying.

It's worth noting that when he gave his grand jury testimony, he was granted immunity (paragraph 8). So if he'd told the truth, he was immune from prosecution for buying any illegal drugs/steroids/whatever. Of course, if he'd told the truth, he would be in trouble with baseball, the Giants, and perhaps to the two people he really cares about: his dad and Willie Mays.

As for the evidence, paragraph 9 is the unobtrusive hammer:

During the criminal investigation, evidence was obtained including positive tests for the presence of anabolic steroids and other performance-enhancing substances for Bonds.

So they must have found positive test results for him.

What does it mean?

I don't know. One could certainly argue that he deserves to be sentenced to community service. This isn't exactly the biggest problem facing this country right now.

On the other hand, the feds may try to make an example of him. Martha Stewart served six months in the Big House for lying about a sale of stock worth $50,000. The feds don't like it when you lie to them. If they do insist on prison, it will have to be a short term. Six months at most.

Why did he lie?

I don't know. Somehow Bonds, who grew up in wealth and privilege the rest of us can barely imagine, has managed to create a worldview where he is the persecuted one. This has been very effective for him--I think it has actually fueled much of his success on the field. But it's not so effective when one is under oath to a grand jury.

C.C. Sabathia

Sabathia won the Cy Young, followed by Beckett, Lackey, and Carmona. I'm happy the Baseball Writers' Association of America are finally listening to me. Sign me up!

Sabathia deserved it.

However, I couldn't help but note the following, from ESPN.com:

The 6-foot-7, 290-pound left-hander is the first black pitcher to win a Cy Young Award since Dwight Gooden of the New York Mets in 1985 -- and the first in the AL since Oakland's Vida Blue in 1971.

This is a shocking statistic.

It would be more shocking if it were true (or relevant!). The last several Cy Young award winners in the American League are:

2007: Sabathia
2006: Johan Santana
2005: Bartolo Colon
2004: Santana
2003: Roy Halladay
2002: Barry Zito
2001: Roger Clemens (undeserved)
2000: Pedro Martinez
1999: Martinez

So out of the last nine Cy Young winners in the American League, three are white. I recognize that whoever wrote the article apparently believes that baseball players fall into one of the following four categories: black, white, Hispanic, asian (a new innovation). But still. Even the US Census recognizes that "Hispanic" is a cultural term. If one insisted on classifying them based on their ultimate ancestry, Martinez, Sabathia, Colon and Santana are more "from" Africa than anywhere else.

Michigan

Michigan's loss to Wisconsin yesterday was a microcosm of the entire season. We were way down, made a comeback to make things interesting and give the fans some hope that the team might not be as bad as everyone feared, but in the end the team turned out to be that bad after all.

I don't think Michigan has a chance against Ohio State, which is like Wisconsin, but faster. Fortunately, I stopped caring about the season months ago, so my disappointment will not be surprising.

Schilling

Curt Schilling is, by all accounts, a loudmouth. By many accounts, he is also a jerk. However, I'm happy he's coming back with the Sox for one more year.

I do not subscribe to the notion that the Sox "owe" it to him to bring him back. They've already paid him tens of millions of dollars, so I don't think they owe him anything. But this is a good contract. I think he'll make every "weigh in", earning himself another $2 million, so really it's a $10 million base with $3 million bonuses for innings pitched (his 151 innings last year would result in a $1.125 million bonus).

His numbers are in decline, but hopefully he's got a "crafty veteran" year in him. I don't think he'll convert to a total junkballer, but I don't think he's going to overpower anybody either. I think he's smart enough to know that he's a borderline Hall of Famer. Ten more wins and another good postseason would certainly help push him over the threshhold.

That makes the rotation Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Lester, Wakefield, and Clay Buchholz. It's won't be a six man rotation. Last year, these six guys made, respectively, 30, 32, 24, 11, 31, and 3 starts. Lester and Buchholz will get more starts; Wakefield will probably have fewer; Schilling, Matsuzaka and Beckett about the same.

Not a bad rotation. Of course, I said the same thing two years ago and consider how that turned out.....

Arguably the greatest 1:59 in YouTube history

Brilliant.

World Series

Dan said it best:

Two.

Game 7

Wow.

I see two big mistakes by the Tribe coaches. First, obviously, was third base coach Joel Skinner not sending Kenny Lofton around to score on that screamer down the line in the seventh inning when it was still a 3-2 game. I think you gotta send him, put pressure on the Sox and on Manny to make that throw.

On the other hand, it was a hard hit ball, it was caroom-ing toward Manny, and there was just one out. I think it was a wrong decision, but not an easy one.

The bigger mistake was by Eric Wedge, when he took out Jake Westbrook after six innings. Westbrook had been pitching very, very well in his last couple of innings. He'd only pitched 94 pitches to that point, and he was really cutting up the Sox. The first three innings weren't so good, but as he tired, his sinker improved. In the sixth, he pitched great and only threw about ten pitches. He looked good to go another inning or two, and why not?

Big mistake from Wedge. Betancourt's been great all year, but why take out a pitcher who's pitching great?

Game 7

Well, after all I've said about the Albatross, maybe I was too harsh. Nothing like a grand slam to improve my outlook on someone.

Game 7 is tonight and Dice-K is on the mound. Recent events aren't encouraging, but as everyone knows, anything can happen in a Game 7.

Padre Anger

I mean, if I was a Padres fan, I'd be very bitter, but this is just outstanding.

Josh Beckett

Ok, then.

The rest of the staff may be crap, but there can't be much doubt at this point that Beckett is a Big Game Pitcher.

Clemens-Maddux

I noted at the start of the season that while Clemens has more wins than Maddux, his lead has been shrinking since 1991.

Maddux had a pretty good year last year. Clemens, a little less so, but it wasn't too bad. Both of them had ERAs significantly better than the league average. Clemens, though, seems less likely to come back. I can't imagine that anyone will pay him that much money again.

After this year, Maddux is within striking distance. Clemens' lead was 15 at the end of last season; now it's 7.

Maddux keeps rolling along and I believe he has another year left on this contract. Of course he could get hurt. But barring injury, he looks good for another 10-13 wins next year. I don't know about Clemens.

I still think it's cool that the #8 and #9 career wins leaders are simultaneously active. I can't imagine it will ever happen again. I don't know that Clemens will get to Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin, but I wouldn't put it past Maddux if he stays healthy. Probably not next year, when he ought to finish with about 358 wins. But maybe after the following, if he sticks around. If he stays healthy for two more years, it's possible he could pass Warren Spahn and end up #5 on the all time list.

Torre

Will Steinbrenner really fire Torre?

He can't blame Torre for not having any good pitchers, can he? Of the Yankees rotation, Wang was solid, Pettitte was acceptable, Mussina was at best a #5 starter, and Clemens was tired. That staff is just old.

Wang's a legitimate #2 starter, Pettitte a #3, Mussina a #5, Clemens maybe a #4. Phil Hughes unquestionably has a lot of potential. The obvious problem in the staff is no dominant #1 starter, inexcusable for a team with the $215 million payroll. Before the season, who did they think was going to be their #1 starter?

It's hardly Torre's fault that he has an old, tired staff. Their offense could get them through the regular season, but you can't win in the postseason without pitching.


I won't even touch their bullpen. How can they have only two good relievers on the staff?

Josh Beckett

Yes.

Sox-Halos

I don't know who's going to win the Sox-Angels series, but it's certainly not encouraging that nine out of ten ESPN experts pick the Sox. Baseball's a funny game, especially in the playoffs. Conventional wisdom is often wrong.

I also queasy with pitching Beckett, Matsuzaka, then Schilling. I'd rather have Schilling for a Game 5.

Baseball playoffs

I'm not a fan of the playoff schedule, which keeps getting more and more drawn out to satisfy the demands of television. The Sox, for instance, play on October 3, 5, 7, 8, and 10. Five games in eight days? This is very different than the regular season. For instance, one gets to the playoffs by having a deep bullpen, but that's deemphasized with this schedule.

But I'd rather be playing in a crummy postseason schedule than not. You only need three starters in the Division Series, and the Sox will probably go with Beckett, then Schilling, then Matsuzaka. This would put Schilling in Game 5, and he's been comfortable in big games in the past. I suppose the Angels will go with Lackey, Escobar, and Jered Weaver.

As a sidenote, we all can agree to support the Indians. Go Tribe!

Changed my mind again

Now I'd vote

1. Sabathia
2. John Lackey
3. Carmona
4. Beckett

Lackey is slightly better than Carmona in every way. Carmona beats Beckett based on ERA, innings, complete games, and starts.

Sabathia edges Lackey due to more innings, completely games, and strikeouts. But those two are practically even.

And yes, Beckett went from #1 to #4 on my ballot in three days.

Cy Young Take Two

As Sox fans know, it's never too late to blow a lead. Turns out there was still time for Beckett to change my mind.

With his performance tonight, I think Beckett should have lost the Cy Young to Fausto Carmona, who will lead the league in ERA, and have two more shutouts, one more complete game, and more innings than Beckett. Does that make up for one less victory? Yes, I think it does.

Cy Young

So who wins the Cy Young awards?

In the National League, I'll go way out on a limb and say it's going to be Peavy. When the guy with the lowest ERA also has the most wins, he's tough to beat. When he also has the most strikeouts, he should get every #1 vote.

The American League is trickier. Josh (a) Beckett has the most wins, but no shutouts and just one complete game. C.C. Sabathia has the most innings, four complete games, and a great run down the stretch; Fausto Carmona (who?), has the best ERA and 19 wins; John Lackey has 18 wins so far and two shutouts. Roy Halliday is a horse (7 complete games) but doesn't have the ERA this year. Dan Haren has the ERA and the innings, but there's a big difference between 15 wins and 20 wins.

I go with Beckett, but I wouldn't argue with someone voting for Sabathia.

Pennant races

In baseball, I am a traditionalist. I'm opposed to both inter-league play and the wild card.

One justification for the three division setup is that it prolongs the pennant races.

Well, sometimes. But not always. For instance, this year the playoff teams in the American League have been known for a week: Sox, Yankees, Tribe, and Angels. Whether the Sox or Yankees win the AL East isn't really important.

However, consider the case if the American League still had just two divisions. As of today, the Tribe would be in first place, half a game ahead of the Sox, with the Yankees charging hard two games back. It would be a great race.

I recognize that some years the new format is good for creating excitement, but it's worth noting that some years the regular season is cheapened. That's the case this year.

756

Let me get this straight, the guy who spent $750,000 on Bonds' record breaking home run ball is going to let people vote on what he should do with it?

I'm with Barry: The guy is an idiot.

My first thought was that this guy was a real jerk, because if you're going to spend $750,000, there are plenty of good ways to spend it.

But it turns out that he's already familiar with philanthropy. This whole auction is just all for publicity.

For what it's worth, I voted to put the ball in the Hall of Fame. Like him or hate him, Bonds is important to baseball history.

Michigan

Ok, I was somewhat traumatized by Michigan football these last couple of weeks. It's taken me some time to adjust my expectations, because I really thought we were going to be good.

We're not good. But we're sure not as bad as Notre Dame either. They are atrocious. They really ought to try recruiting some offensive linemen.

Senator Craig

How long until Senator Craig checks himself into rehab for his secret alcohol problem?

Note that Senator Craig did have an excuse in the police report: 'Craig stated “that he has a wide stance when going to the bathroom and that his foot may have touched mine” '


From now on, when I'm travelling, I've resolved to use a narrow stance in all airport bathrooms. No sense in giving mixed messages.

The Havana Devil Rays

I was happy to hear Obama promoting a more open policy to Cuba for a couple of reasons.

First, of course, our embargo is exceedingly stupid. The reasons are obvious and uninteresting.

But second, if we dropped the embargo it could help solve the disasterous Tampa Bay Devil Ray problem. The franchise stinks. The Devil Rays play in a terrible stadium in front of a pathetic fan base. The team never should have existed.

Since the player's union would never let MLB eliminate a franchise, it only makes sense to move them. But where? I say Havana!

A friend of mine had an extra ticket for the Giants game tonight. We were in the 12th row right behind home plate. They were the best seats I've ever had at the Phonebooth. Zito looked pretty good. From those seats you can really see his curveball curving.

It's a good thing Aurelia drove in the go ahead runs, he had a rough outing at 3rd base with one error and a couple of bobbles.

Lots and lots of empty seats, though, even in the box seats.

The Upside of Gagne

He's not signed past this year. Seeing as he hasn't had a single 1-2-3 inning yet with the Sox, the decision about whether to sign him for next year will be pretty easy....

Gagne

On third thought, he now officially stinks.

He belongs on a mopup role.

On further reconsideration....

...maybe that Gagne deal wasn't so great idea after all.

Michigan-Utah

Michigan has signed up Utah to finish up its 2008 football schedule.

This is a mediocre out of conference schedule. Utah is a respectable opponent; Miami of Ohio and Toledo are not. I see no reason we should be stuck with two MAC teams. Blech.

Utah is better. They had a good season in 2004, and they play in the, uhhhh, Mountain West conference (I had to look it up). Far preferable to the MAC. I think at a minimum, our patsies should be teams of the caliber of Utah. They seem fired up about playing in Ann Arbor; I have to think that other programs would also appreciate the exposure.

I'd also prefer a team like Cincinnati, which has a home-and-home series with Oklahoma (!) set up, with the game at Cincinnati being played at Paul Brown Stadium, where the Bengals play. I think it would be cool for Michigan to do something similar; although their coach discounts it, I bet they'd agree to play two games in Ann Arbor and one in Cincinnati.

Bonds

Surely Bonds will hit homer 756* this week when the Giants are at home.

There have been a bunch of articles talking about how black fans (74%) are more likely than white fans (28%) to be rooting for Bonds to break the record. (Whew! Good thing there isn't anyone else in America besides black people and white people!)

I say that's nothing. They should check the disparity between Giants fans and everyone else. Giants fans love the guy; I bet 90% are rooting for him to break the record.

Glavine

Tom Glavine won his 300th game yesterday, prompting a rash of (easy to write) articles about how he'll be the last 300 game winner.

Sportswriters love an easy story, especially one that someone else has already written. It's also a safe article to write, because no one's going to remember it by the time the next pitcher wins 300. Randy Johnson, stuck at 284, is looking like a more and more unlikely candidate for 300, and as I mentioned in May, no one else is close.

So the next 300 game winner isn't going to happen for a while. It could be Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt (if he gets on a team that figures out how to score), or one of the others, but we've got a few years.

I'm sure that similar articles have been written before. The list of 300 game winners contains some gaps. I bet that plenty of people decided that Nolan Ryan would be the last such pitcher in 1990. Although six guys (Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, and Ryan) made it withing 8 years, no one else was on the horizon. At the end of the 1990 season, Clemens had just 116 wins.

Before Gaylor Perry it had been 20 years since Early Wynn won 300. I'm sure there were articles by lazy sportswriters in 1963 too saying that he was the last. I don't think we'll be waiting another 20 years; I think it'll happen sometime in 2021.

More college football rankings

Well, the original ESPN rankings were for the last ten years, and my post listed the top teams for the last 25. In the spirit of matching apples to apples, here's a chart of the last ten years.

The data is the same as in my earlier post, but I've only included points gained in the last ten years. It matches even better with the ESPN one: ESPN's top four are USC, Ohio State, Texas, and Florida, and this chart has Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC. The top eight in each chart are identical, the order is shifted only slightly.

One big change, of course, if Florida State's drop. They go from #1 to #8, and they're not even close to the top. Next year they'll probably drop some more. Michigan could pass Ohio State (uhhh, "The Ohio State University", Sybil), but I'm not about to bet on it.