Baseball Costs

Every year they come out with a new Team Marketing Report, which chronicles the cost of attending a baseball game for a family of four. It adds up the cost of two adults tickets, two child tickets, four hot dogs, two sodas, two beers, two caps, one program, and parking.

Every year sportswriters uncritically accept this number and wail that baseball is "out of reach for the average American". It is a lot of money. "$287 to attend a game at Fenway, that's absurd!"

It's also completely ridiculous, and I have yet to read a story that points out some of the absurdity. For instance, why the two hats? They're not really part of the cost of the game. You can buy hats anywhere. For that matter, why the two beers? I stopped drinking beer at baseball games years ago when I tired of paying $7 for it. Why always include parking? Along with *thousands* of other fans, I normally take public transit to A's games (and I walk to Giants games). Fenway, for instance, is extremely well served by public transit. For that matter, when I do drive to Oakland, I can just park across the street for free and walk to the game--no $14 parking for me!

But do sportswriters ever bring up these factors? Nooooooo. That would require critical thinking.

However, thanks to Microsoft, it's easy to adjust their chart for a more realistic cost. The following is a modified chart, taking into account 2 adult tickets, 2 child tickets, 4 hot dogs, and 4 sodas.



Whoa! The numbers look a little different! Granted, they're still high, but it looks a lot more reasonable. And kudos to the Yankees! Cheaper than both Houston and St. Louis.

The numbers aren't perfect. The ticket prices are listed as "average"; if one was trying to save money, one might think that the better option would be to buy tickets for special promotional events. But one point of this analysis is that I'm spending about 30 minutes on it. Any sportswriter could also spend 30 minutes and come up with a more interesting story, or they could mindlessly parrot the same story about how it costs $287 to take the family to Fenway.

More Gonzales

I had to drive to a meeting today and so I listened to the Gonzales hearing. He was awful. He's in so far over his head.

Does anyone defend him now? Is it possible to defend him now? I heard him being questioned by Jeff Sessions. Gonzales insisted that he had no memory of the key November (that's November, 2006, i.e. a few months ago) meeting where they talked about who to fire. Sessions, who's not exactly a leftie, was not impressed.

Or, from another Republican Lindsey Graham: "But at the end of the day, you said something that struck me: that sometimes it just came down to these were not the right people at the right time. If I applied that standard to you, what would you say?”


I didn't like John Ashcroft because he was an ideologue. But that presupposes that he had ideas. Gonzales? No ideas.

Alberto Gonzales = Incompetent

Talking about the meetings about firing the US Attorneys, he says:

During those updates, to my knowledge, I did not make decisions about who should or should not be asked to resign.


What's with the "to my knowledge"? Might he have made decisions about who they were firing without using his knowledge? Does he have any knowledge?

(Full statement is here.)

King Felix!

Apparently Felix Hernandez will turn out allright after all. My dad was watching the game and he had to call me to tell me about it in the sixth inning.

Apparently Orel Hershiser, who knows a thing or two about pitching, was broadcasting, and said that King Felix has not one but "two Hall of Fame pitches". Not bad.


Incidentally there are always some people who whine that it can't the the World Series, because it's always just the best teams in America. ("How can it be the World Series when they don't invite teams from all over the world?") This is an exceedingly stupid complaint that's probably not worth repeating, and this game succinctly shows why. We had the second best Venezuelan pitcher on the planet beating the best Japanese pitcher on earth. (Or at least I assume he's the best; he was certainly Japan's hammer at the World Baseball Classic.) Hernandez shut down probably the two best Dominican hitters to do so. One could go on and on, but the point is made.

Giants Can't Score!

Sometimes I'm wrong. Sometimes not so much.

I had my doubts that the Giants would be able to score. But I didn't think it would be this bad.

Seven games. Fourteen runs. One win. Ouch.


I've finally moved past Pac Bell Park. Now it's the Phonebooth.

Michigan salaries

The Detroit News posted the following salaries for Michigan coaches:


This strikes me as fairly interesting. Obviously Lloyd makes the big bucks, and Red Berenson does pretty well too. I don't know anything about hockey, but Michigan was national champions in hockey two of the three years I was there, so he must be doing something right. Michigan's swimming teams are dominant, so they have to pay them well.

The new basketball coach, Beilein, isn't on there, but he's supposedly going to make $1.3 million, although that same article had Lloyd at $1.6 million, which the chart has him at "only" $1.1 million. One would think that the Detroit News might be interested in getting its own facts straight.

Note also that Michigan's president, Mary Sue Coleman, apparently makes about $725,000 per year.

Cardinals--Ugh

The Cardinals look horrendous.

It's one thing to be shut down by Tom Glavine on Opening Eve. He's done it before. It's a little disconcerning to follow that up be being shut down by El Duque.

But then last night they were two-hit by, um, John Mayne. ("John Maine, you're no El Duque.") And they gave up an RBI single to a guy who was born in the *Eisenhower* administration.

Oh, and Carpenter's hurt.

Shows what I know

Well on day 1, Bonds goes out and steals second in the first inning.

Yet another demonstration of why I'm not a major league scout.

Note: Bonds was then thrown out at the plate. His excuse is good enough that I couldn't make it up.

Michigan basketball

I guess I do care after all.

Supposedly we're going to hire West Virginia's coach, John Beilein. I don't know squat about him (or about college basketball generally), but I did see this article about his contract buyout.

The lawyer they quote, Doug Kahn, was my tax professor. In addition to being a great guy, he's a total Michigan homer.

At the end of class the day before the Ohio State game he had a confusing hypothetical about some tax issue for institutions of higher education. The hypothetical's facts were about a grad student at Ohio State and tuition or somesuch. Prof. Kahn called on someone who started fumbling around.

After a few moments of this, Kahn interrupted him: "I think you're missing the threshold issue."

...pause...

"Should Ohio State be considered an institution of higher education?"

More Bonds

Eddie thinks I'm oversimplifying and points to this site to show that moving Bonds from third to second in the batting order won't make much of a difference.

First, not to oversimplify, but Cho's wrong.

Second, wow, I consider myself a baseball fan, but that's ridiculous.

My actual argument has changed a little over the years, but it's not based on number of at bats.

Three years ago Bonds was so devastating a hitter than he would change everything in the late innings. For instance, if the Giants were down a run or two, or if the game was tied, and Bonds was up 4th in the 9th inning, the threat of having to face him with the game on the line was very disruptive. I figured that if he moved up in the lineup, it was more likely that he would get that one extra at bat in close games. For instance, if Bonds were scheduled to bat 4th in a the ninth inning instead of 6th, it would put a lot more pressure on the opposing reliever.

Today, the argument is based on his knees. It's in the Giants' best interests to have him play as few innings as possible. Realistically, there are going to be plenty of games where he's good for three at bats and then he'll leave. If they can make that third at bat happen an inning earlier, it could help him. He's sufficiently gimpy/cranky/etc. that an extra inning here and there could make a difference.

In other news, I went to the Giants game last night. The first game of the season is always fun.

(a) Zito looked good, although the game ended in about 2:10. Nobody was grinding out at bats last night.

(b) Bonds can unquestionably hit but he sure can't run. We had great seats right behind the bullpen in left field. He's capable of jogging to make a catch, but generally he just stood there. Granted it's an exhibition game, but he better hit a lot of homers because he's going to clog the bases. Not that I blame him, but if his knees are this gimpy in March, I doubt he'll play in even 130 games this year.

(c) 29,627 fans? No way, no how. MAYBE 15,000.

More Great Sportswriting

Again, by Tom Verducci. Wow, that sounds like fun.

Bonds Bats Third

Finally! The Giants should have made this decision years ago.

As I pointed out three years ago, he should be batting second. But third is a lot smarter than cleanup.

Pat Tillman

I didn't pay much attention to the whole Pat Tillman saga when it broke. I admit I figured he was a sort of uninteresting meathead football player. Sure it was a tragedy that he died, but I was disgusted by the Administration's war to start with and their hero workship of a dead man made it worse. Then I read this set of stories on ESPN. (Warning: these are long stories. But Pat Tillman's story isn't simple.) I was so, so wrong.

Having read more about him, Pat Tillman sounds like a damn interesting guy. The story is a scathing indictment of an Administration, along with the Army brass, who wanted a hero. It turns out that Tillman did what he wanted to do, but the last thing he wanted was to be their hero.

The fallout continues. It was clear from the ESPN story that the Army lied and lied again. For several generals, it looks like their lies will end their careers. So be it.

All sorts of people (the Army, the Administration, various commentators) have tried to appropriate a piece of Pat Tillman's glory. They're all wrong. He's an American hero, the rare kind who's too authentic to be pigeon-holed.


This is another case of good sportwriting. Kudos to ESPN (!) was going waaaaay outside its bailiwick to bring a story that wasn't really about sports at all, any more than Pat Tillman's life was about sports.

More Matsuzaka

Matsuzaka's durability is such an interesting topic.

The article is interesting, and it raises the possibility that everything we're doing is wrong, but I have many, many more questions.

-What's the normal training regiman for young Japanese pitchers--is he typical?
-Is it common for Japanese pitchers to have so many innings?
-What's the injury history for Japanese pitchers?
-How has his training changed over time?
-How durable are pitchers in Japan--are they all finished at age 35?
-Does Matsuzaka lift weights?
-Most importantly, is he going to blow out his arm in June???

Yesterday I brought up Nolan Ryan. But he didn't pitch much when he was young. Maybe a better example is Livan Hernandez. Something tells me that when Hernandez was growing up in Cuba, he didn't spend a lot of time worrying about pitch counts.....


Also, I complain enough about sports writers, that I should point out that this is a terrific article. Huzzah!

Baseball

As if I needed an additional reasons to be excited about baseball: Daisuke Matsuzaka! Whoo-hoo!

I can't even pick out one single highlight from the article. But 250 pitches in one game in high school? No ice? Eight pitches?

Now, in the past, I've been a strong proponent of limiting pitch counts for youg pitchers.

But this whole Matsuzaka thing is nuts. He's an insane workhorse. According to the Sports Illustrated article, maybe I'm wrong. Way, way wrong.

Or, maybe, he's just a physical freak. But Nolan Ryan didn't pitch many innings before he was 25. Maybe everything we know about training young pitchers is wrong.

I just hope that Matsuzaka doesn't blow his arm out.

Pete Rose

I have some friends (Eddie) who have, ahem, defened Pete Rose over the years. Presumably, that's now over.

Guilty, guilty, guilty.

Alberto Gonzales

It sure looks to me like Alberto Gonzales will end up resigning as Attorney General. The first Republican Senator called for it. Obviously, he's failed completely at the job.

As an admittedly partisan Democrat, I sort of hope he sticks around, though. The longer he sticks around, the louder the chorus seeking his resignation will be, and the more damage will be done to the Administration. Heh heh.

Spring Training

Ahhh, another year of spring training, another year of the same stories, another year of me complaining about those same stories.

I missed one category of story, The Guy Who's Healthy Again (Bobby Crosby, Eric Gagne).

It's so booooooring. I make it a policy to never pay attention to the games themselves, as they don't really matter. I'm ready for the real thing!

Libby

I haven't paid much attention to the Scooter Libby trial. I figured it wasn't new news--I already believed that the Administration was manipulating intelligence and engaged in character assassination.

However, I did find one thing amusing. Apparently when Cheney read Wilson's op-ed piece that started this whole thing, about Wilson's trip to Niger, Cheney wrote: "did his wife send him on a junket?" on the news clipping.

I've been to Niger. Let me assure you, that no one goes there on a junket. Aren't junkets supposed to be fun? If I ever go on a "junket", I hope it involves sitting on a hot beach in the sun with a cold fruity drink in my hand.

In Niger there's nothing to see, nothing to do. It's hot and dry. There aren't many reasons to go to Niger. And going on a junket surely ain't one of them!

Soccer

Most people don't follow European soccer too closely. I've started to pay some attention, especially this time of year, when spring training is boring. (As noted previously, I don't care about basketball.)

Anyway, I was reading something and ran across a guy with surely the longest last name in sports: Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink. Yep, that's really his last name.

Iraq's civil war

Of course, Iraq is a disaster and a huge mistake. It seems to me that the White House is still fundamentally confused about one simple fact, and until they change their minds, we're going to keep on this same path.

What's the simple fact?

The Administration still approaches Iraq like it's us versus them. It's them versus them.


The Iraqis are not really fighting against us. They're fighting each other. Until the President understands this basic fact, I don't think he's ever going to change course.

How To Lose Fans

Apparently Michigan had a good shot at beating Ohio State in Ann Arbor, but blew it.

This validates my decision, made several years ago, to stop caring about Michigan basketball. I can't remember the last time I watched a Michigan basketball game. I don't even bother entering NCAA tournament pools.

It's like how I stopped paying attention to the NFL after the Browns announced they would leave Cleveland in 1995. And like the decision to ignore the NFL, ignoring college basketball has turned out to be great. I've got plenty of things to pay attention to anyway.

UCLA beat Michigan this year and a friend of mine who's an obnoxious UCLA fan tried to give me a hard time about it. It didn't work, because I didn't care.

Am I just a fair weather fan? Well maybe. I did go to all the Michigan games when I went to school there. But it's difficult to be fired up about a team that (a) stinks, (b) is never on TV, (c) never makes the NCAA tournament (see (a) above), and (d) stinks every year.

Michigan just announced its 2007 schedule.

For the first time I can remember, we play a Division I-AA team, Appalachian State. Who? It's embarrassing. Surely we can do better.

I don't even like it when Michigan plays MAC schools. We never used to play MAC schools. I was surprised in 1995 to watch us beat Miami of Ohio. Before 1995, the last time Michigan played a MAC school was sometime before 1954 (I got bored of looking). In fact, we frequently played strong out of conference schedules. Until 1995, the last "weak" school we played was Cal State Long Beach (?????), in 1987. In every other year, we had three real opponents. In 1986, we beat Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Florida State (plus Hawaii at the end of the year).

Unfortunately, those days seem to be over. But this is ridiculous. The last time we *didn't* play a MAC school was 1999. Ugh. I think we should play Notre Dame every year, plus one tough team from a power conference like Oregon, and then fill up the schedule with teams like service academies or Cincinnati. I have to think that teams like that would come to Ann Arbor for the exposure (and money) and it would sure beat watching a MAC school.

It's been clear that *someone* on the inside was leaking the grand jury testimony to the Chronicle reporters in the Bonds steroids case.

Of all people, it was Victor Conte's former lawyer! His lawyer!

One question for Mr. Ellerman: "Excuse me, sir, how dumb are you?"

I'm going with 'extremely, extremely dumb'. It's pretty basic that grand jury testimony is confidential.

But it gets better. Not only did he leak the testimony, he then swore to the judge that he didn't do it. Ouch. And not to disparage the importance of this investigation, but this ain't exactly the Pentagon Papers here. I can't wait to hear his explanation for why he felt obliged to do this.

I see that he recently changed his law license to inactive status. That will shortly be changed again to "Disbarred."

That Barbaro horse died.

So what? You'd think it was, say, a *person*. The New York Times had an article: After 8 Months Filled By Hope, Setback Ends Barbaro’s Battle; Barbaro’s Desperate Fight for Life Gripped a Nation in Anguish; and Veterinarian Says Goodbye to a Patient (whew! good thing there's nothing else important going on in the world!).

Sports Illustrated is particularly bloviating: A Champion Until the End
Barbaro Touched Us With His Grace and Fighting Spirit; before saying Churchill Downs Could Be Burial Site For Barbaro. It goes on and on.

Ummm, remind me again, who cares?

Sportswriters, of course, love to find the Big Picture. And then write it into the ground. And beat us over the head with it. With purplish prose. The Sports Illustrated article contains the following gems:

It lost a champion whose class and bravery -- before and after his injury
-- were inspiring and lent a visceral touch to a sport that is rapidly becoming
disconnected from human emotions.

His passing, upon further review, is immeasurable.

Barbaro won the Kentucky Derby in the manner of an athlete who is evolved
beyond his peers. He cut a massive, striking pose in the Derby paddock before
the race, taller and more muscled than the others in the race.

Calling Tim Layton, calling Tim Layton. We're talking about a horse here.

Maybe sportswriters grew up when people still cares about horse racing. But I think they're congenitally unable to resist the desire to show us how Sports Affects Us All. Blech.

Well, the Sox finally signed J.D. Drew. I still think it's a mistake. Too many years; he's too old and injury prone.

However, my good friend Eric Freeman, who follows baseball far more closely than I do, assures me this is a good deal. He's got a lot more PhD's than I ever will, so I suppose I have to give him some credence. Eric, I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

The Giants also signed Bonds. I think $16 million is too much money, especially for a guy who hit 26 homers last year and can't field. Zito was a great signing, but I still think the Giants will be too old and slow.

Come to think of it, the Giants would have been better spending their money on J.D. Drew instead of Bonds.

The Chronicle just mentioned that Alberto Gonzales doesn't think the Constitution guarantees the right of habeas corpus (i.e. the right to have a court hear you out if the government throws you in jail).

(Note, the Constitution says "The privilege of the Writ of Habeas Corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public Safety may require it." Presumably, if it can be suspended, it must already exist, no?)

Wow.

Remember when he was discussed as a candidate for the Supreme Court? Not something he has to worry about anymore!

I like Bill Richardson. And I like Barack Obama. I think each one of them can win, which is what I want most of all.

Ouch. Great article in the Chronicle about the Niners guys from 1981 and their various injuries.

Reading that, and knowing nothing about his NFL prospects, I sure can't blame Jeff Samardzija for choosing baseball.

Wow. According to an article in the New York Times, different people estimate the cost of the war as between $1,000,000,000,000 and $2,000,000,000,000. (Those are trillions, but it's worth it to write out the zeros).

That's a big heap-a money. What a relief that we don't have any other important needs. Whew!

And obviously this doesn't cover the dead. We've lost 3000 Americans so far and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis are dead as well. We'll be paying for this war for decades.

Well, this is encouraging. (satire!)

We've now hanged three people in Iraq, and one of them has gone correctly.

I do think it's correct to say "we". Granted Iraq has a government, but it depends completely on our support. Without us, it would dissolve. On the Arab street, we get blamed for everything that goes wrong in Iraq. And when we leave, it will dissolve. If anyone thinks Iraq is bad now, just wait until we leave...

Does anyone in the administration notice that we're losing in Iraq?

Maybe I'm not an expert, but I fear we've already lost. We can either admit it now or admit it later, but Iraq is going to dissolve into civil war as soon as we leave.

Beckham is coming Los Angeles. I think it's great for soccer in America. He's not the player he once was, but he's still going to attract attention.

I wonder about that supposed $250 million contract. Surely it's not being paid by the Galaxy. It must include some fat endorsement money, i.e. Adidas (which outfits the Galaxy as well as Real Madrid).

Wow. If the Giants get Zito, what a coup! If anyone's worth it, I think it's Zito. He's never missed a start. Ever.

He's durable, and I assume he'll have an easier time in the National League. He could easily with 20 games the next couple of years. (I think projecting beyond that is too speculative for pitchers.)

Assuming, of course, the Giants score any runs. Last year the Giants were 15th in on base percentage, 10th in slugging. They were an old, slow team. Granted Pac Bell Park is a pitcher's park, but they still need to score. It's not a good sign when Omar Vizquel leads your team in hitting!

Finally, some good news.

The Sox are giving J.D. Drew another physical. Apparently they found something wrong with his shoulder.

Duh.

They "expressed concern at the issue"? How about expressing some concern that he's averaged 120 games over the last five years? This is a really stupid signing.


Note that in the distant past I also thought that Mike Lowell was a bad signing. Ahem.

Six years; $103 million. Is Daisuke Matsuzaka worth it?

I don't think anyone knows. I'm happy they didn't pay more. I'm guessing it'll be a better deal than the Mets' Pedro contract (4 years, $53 million).


Also, I note that Matsuzaka's had to undergo various assorted foolishness. Welcome to Boston.

I think a college football playoff is a bad idea. It's a bad idea for many reasons, but I'd like to look at perhaps the most obvious.

How many teams do you invite?

Much of the chatter in favor of a playoff is that it would be more "fair". I disagree. If we look at the historical numbers we can see why this is.

Every year, there are some teams that indisputably be included in a playoff: the major conference undefeateds. This year, Ohio State is the only such team.

Every year there is also a second tier, teams that if we invite one of them, we must invite all of them. This year, there are two such teams: Florida and Michigan.

The problem is that the number of teams in these categories fluctuates every year. Looking at the last ten years, here's a chart showing how the number of deserving teams varies:



There was some subjectivity in deciding the second tier teams, but not much. (Handy data is available at http://www.soonerstats.com/fb/polls/index.cfm and http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/byName.htm.)

So how many teams do you invite? If you have one game, you've got a great matchup in 2005, 2002, 1999, and 1997. The other six years, a one game championship game would be unfair. And so on, for different numbers of games.

If you want more than one game, we always end up with between three and six deserving teams. It's just not possible to create a fair system.

Fortunately, the world keeps turning just fine without a fair college football system. In fact, one could argue that the sport does quite well. There are no shortage of fans. There's certainly no shortage of money! What's the problem with the system we have now?

Are the Red Sox insane? J.D. Drew for 5 years and $70 million? The same J.D. Drew who's accumulated 500 at bats in a season once? The same J.D. Drew who's played in more than 140 games twice in eight full seasons? The same J.D. Drew who's always hurt?

When he's healthy, yes, Drew is Mickey Mantle. But he's not Mickey Mantle. The proper comparison is Eric Davis. Like Davis before him, Drew has all the talent in the world, but also like Davis, Drew has yet to play a full season. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Sox are crazy to pay a part time player this kind of money.

Among my other interests, I follow efforts to eradicate non-native species. I'm happy to see that the National Park Service is going to eliminate nonnative deer from Point Reyes. I love Point Reyes. It's a fascinating place, and I've probably hiked every trail in the park.

I only wish they'd be more aggressive about these nonnative deer. Shoot them all and shoot them now! It would be better for the ecosystem to get rid of them sooner, not later. The Marin Humane Society is just wrong. (They should focus on cats and dogs and not say stupid things about wild animals.)

Nonnative feral pigs on the Channel Islands off Los Angeles pose even more severe problems for the whole ecosystem. They should also be shot.

Sixteen millions of dollars for Bonds.

Will he be worth it? As Steven Colbert would say, "I don't trink so."

His numbers, are declining, but more worrisome is the decline in games played. Maybe he's good for 130 games next year. These days he doesn't have any speed, so he clogs the bases when walked, and doesn't cover much ground in left field.

As I've been saying for years, Bonds should bat second. Especially this year. Certainly no lower than third. If he batted second, it's reasonable to assume there would be plenty of games where he could get three at bats in by the 6th inning, and then come out of the game.

I wouldn't pay him $16 million. Unless they sign someone, the Giants will again be old, and I don't think they'll be very good. Bonds is plenty divisive in the clubhouse; if the team isn't winning it could get ugly. Maybe they'll make back the money in jersey sales, but I don't know.

So very sad.

At this point, it's worth wondering. Is Castro dead?

And if he's dead, can we finally end this stupid embargo to trade and travel to Cuba?

Hmmm, so either Michigan or Florida will play Ohio State for the national championship. I'm a big Michigan fan, but I have to admit that Florida should probably go. Ohio State beat us already; they shouldn't have to beat us again.

One interesting argument the SEC people make is that the SEC is the toughest conference. I don't know if that's true, but I thought I'd compare the out-of-conference schedules of the SEC with the Big 10.

Big 10 teams have

SEC teams have, in total, two wins against teams in the top 25. Tennessee clobbered Cal at home, and Georgia beat Georgia Tech. All told, the SEC was 9-6 against teams from the six BCS conferences, with one additional loss to a non-BCS conference team (Mississippi State lost to Tulane). Call them 9-7.

Big 10 teams also have two wins against top 25 teams. Ohio State won decisively at Texas and Michigan hammered Notre Dame in South Bend. Both Texas and Notre Dame were #2 when they were defeated. The Big 10 was 7-4 against teams from the BCS conferences, with four losses to non-BCS conference teams (Ohio University, Hawaii, New Hampshire, and Nevada). Wisconsin's schedule is especially embarrassing. Ugh.

So to me, the conferences look about the same. Five of the Big 10's losses were by its crap teams (Northwestern, Illinois). I just think that it's wrong to make Ohio State beat Michigan twice. Much as it pains me, we had our chance.

I think the economics of baseball have changed a little. Which is to say that they've changed a lot. Salaries are going to go waaaaaay up with the new TV deal.

Exhibit A: Jim Edmonds. I like him. He plays hard, plays hurt. He's been good for the Cards. But until this year there's no way you pay a guy on the downside of his career $19 million for two more years. Maybe last year was an anomoly. But it sure looked like he peaked in 2004. He's had two years of significant decreases in batting average, slugging, and games played. Not encouraging.

The Sox are trying to sign a Japanese pitcher named Daisuke Matsuzaka. They bid $51.1 m-m-m-million just for the right to negotiate. Does the money make sense? I have no idea.

It sort of sounds like when Real Madrid signed David Beckham. Real Madrid paid $41 million to Beckham's old club, plus his salary. I read, though, that they made that money back in jersey sales immediately. Apparently Beckham is so popular in Asia that enough people bought his jersey that Real Madrid made money on the deal before he ever walked on the field.

Maybe it's the same with Matsuzaka. Maybe the Sox figure that they'll make so much more money on jersey sales in Japan that the actual cost to them is much lower. Or maybe not. Maybe he's just a really good pitcher. Beats me.

Well, that's over. Time to resume.

Hall of Fame ballots went out. We're going to have some controversy. First, the easiest. Cal Ripken is in on the first ballot. Duh.

Tony Gwynn is also in on the first ballot. 3141 hits, .388 lifetime average, 20 seasons with the same team, .324 in his last season (!!). In.

Then it gets interesting. Mark McGwire. And, for that matter, Jose Canseco. Actually that's easy too. Regardless of stats, which are pretty impressive, no one in baseball likes Canseco. Not gonna happen.

McGwire is a tough call. Plenty of writers won't ever vote for him, but they're *especially* not going to want him to share the stage with Good Guys Ripken and Gwynn (Gwynn, ahem, obviously didn't use steroids). How good a player was McGwire? He had nine really good years (87, 88, 89, 90, 92, 96, 97, 98, 99). He was hurt in between. Mediocre fielder, no speed. Obviously a year for the ages in 1998. On the other hand, yes, RBI's are a little bit goofy, but he still had fewer than Rusty Staub (and just seven more than Canseco). If he hadn't been hurt in the middle of his career, his numbers would look a lot better. Which is sort of the question. Why was he hurt so much? I don't know, but it looks pretty suspicious.

My guess is that he doesn't make it in. Certainly not this year, I don't think ever. Which won't bode well for Barry Lamar Bonds in a few more years.....

Italy, Czech Republic, Ghana. Oof. Still, it is progress that the Italian press is mad that they've been stuck in the same group as us.

Something tells me Dontrelle Willis is feeling just a little bit lonely right about now.

Hmmmmm.

Josh (à) Beckett
Schilling
Clement
Wakefield
Arroyo
Miller
(Wells?)
(Papelbon?)

That might work. I like this deal, although Mike Lowell is going to be terrible for two years, and he's very expensive. He's another one whose career stats took a real nose-dive when the threat of steroid testing came up........

...and shame, Jean Schmidt, shame.

Bravo, John Murtha. Bravo.

I remember early in the season, Ohio State's Jim Tressel was criticized for not getting the ball to their best player, Ted Ginn. See, e.g. Texas (two catches, nine yards) and Penn State (three catches, forty yards).

That's exactly what we need on Saturday! Come on Coach Tressel, keep the ball out of Ted Ginn's hands!

My dad correctly points out that all baseball fans really should thank Rafael Palmeiro. Because of him baseball finally has an actual drug policy. I'm not sure it would have come about without him. Thanks, Raffy!

Wow.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=steroids&num=1

ESPN shows conclusively that baseball knew about steroids in 1991, Bud Selig's recent claims of ignorance notwithstanding. And wow, everyone really was using them.

I'd like to hereby declare my availability to John Henry and the Red Sox. Not my availability for General Manager. Instead my availability for Club President. Larry Lucchino has failed and I would like to be considered for his role. As my first action, I would re-hire Theo Epstein to be GM. The Sox appear to be in complete disarray, and I'm very discouraged with the prospect of exchanging a smart statistically based GM for some old 'baseball sort'.

Now this is interesting, on a couple of levels. First, of course, the truth about the Gulf of Tonkin, which is that it never happened. (Sidenote, the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, passed by Congress, gave LBJ the authority to vastly increase US troops in Vietnam.) So Congress was given false information by the administration and based on that false information it approved the administration's decision to go to war. (In Vietnam)

Obviously, the previous sentence could have been written about the present war in Iraq. Which brings up the second level that this new information is interesting. The present administration seems like it's trying to bury the discovery of the 40 year old mistake because the parallels are so obvious that even the President's defenders cannot deny them.


2000 Americans have now died in Iraq. There will be more, unfortunately, many more, sacrificed in a bloody, unwinnable war on the other side of the world. I don't know how many, and I don't know how long it will take, but sooner or later we will pull out of Iraq and then we will wonder what exactly we were doing there in the first place. I have no doubt that in 40 years, the present war in Iraq will be viewed as a serious mistake, just as today the Vietnam War is rightly seen as a mistake. And our children will wonder how it was that America could have so completely failed to learn the lessons of Vietnam.

I've sure been a lot nicer to Harriet Miers than a lot of (nominally) conservatives.

I'm not saying Harriet Miers is a bad person--it may be that she'd be a terrific Justice. It's just that she's so vastly unqualified. If Bush wants to appoint her to a court, why not appoint her to the Fifth Circuit? I don't think anyone would argue with appointing her to Fifth Circuit, and that's plenty prestigious. But something tells me that ain't gonna happen.....

As a sidenote, here's a map showing where I've been:



create your own map


My conclusion: there's a lot of this world that I need to see!

It says I've been to 10% of the world--they may be counting by country. I don't feel like I've seen that much.

It seems that Harriet Miers has tried eights cases to verdict. In her career.

There were three cases where either her client or the opposing party sought Supreme Court review. Never granted.

None of her cases dealt with Constitutional issues of any kind. Her work at the White House doesn't seem to involve the Constitution.

In my opinion, she's wildly unqualified. She may well be smart and personally honest, but the more one learns about it, the thinner her legal resume looks. There are thousands of commercial litigators out there who have roughly the same qualifications, and surely there are hundreds who have better qualifications. Personally, I think it makes a lot of sense to have someone on the Supreme Court with a commercial litigation background--they have plenty of career judges on there already. But I don't think she's the one to put on there.

Does Bush not understand that this is an important job? Does he just think he can appoint his cronies to any position?

Nothing, and I mean NOTHING had gone right for the Cardinals since the beat Houston in Game 1. When Berkman hit that home run tonight, I admit I gave up and went to the gym. Fortunately the gym had a TV.

Whoo-hoo!

If nothing else, it's a chance for one last game at Busch Stadium. I saw a game there with my dad a few years back (summer of 1997, I think). I don't remember who won, but Mark McGwire stole a base. Looking at his stats, that was a rare sight......

In any case, I hope their luck turns. Game 6 is Wednesday.

I'll take it. Whew.

Whew. When Roy Oswalt is on, there's no much anyone can do. Now the Cardinals have to go beat Clemens in Houston. Ugh.

"People are interested to know why I picked Harriet Miers. They want to know Harriet Miers' background. They want to know as much as they possibly can before they form opinions. Part of Harriet Miers' life is her religion." Bush. October 12, 2005.

Uhhhhh, right. Any other reasons? Her strong background in constitutional litigation? Her academic writings? Her philosophical positions?

Oh, wait, there aren't any of those things. Harriet Miers sounds like a very nice person (at least for a lawyer). We know virtually nothing about what she thinks. And the Senate is supposed to vote for her because she's a Christian? I don't expect to agree with much of what John Roberts does from the bench, but he was indisputably qualified for the Supreme Court. Is Miers?

Normally, I don't sit around and read the Federalist Papers (written by James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay to encourage states to ratify the Constitution in 1787). However, in number 76, Hamilton specifically talked about the benefits of Senate approval of Presidential nominees:

[The President] would be both ashamed and afraid to bring forward, for the most distinguished or lucative stations, candidates who had no other merit than that of coming from the same State to which he particularly belonged, or of being in some way or other personally allied to him, or of possessing the necessary insignificance and pliancy to render them the obsequious instruments of his pleasure.


Wow. How applicable to Harriet Miers. Same state? Check. Personally allied to the President? Check. Insignificance? Maybe. Pliancy? Seems like it.

I mean, really, what has she done? Does she have any constitutional background? I'm all in favor of having someone on the Court who actually has done trial work, but is there no lawyer in America who may be more qualified? Anyone who had a First Amendment practice? For that matter, a criminal lawyer?

Terrible. Sports. Weekend.

Ok, the Cardinals won, but everyone expected that. The Sox just crumbled, looking old. Wait till next year. Michigan looked confused (albeit with a good defense). Three losses means the season is a failure. Garbage Pit Bowl, here we come!

Chris Carpenter pitched well today (saved by three double plays), but I think he's lost the Cy Young. Over the last month he was pretty mediocre. Which stands in direct contrast to the guy who should win it, Dontrelle Willis, who had just one bad start down the stretch.

Willis has one more win, one more shutout, and a better ERA. No contest. I just wonder how many voters made up their mind in August.

Harriet Miers.

Raise your hand if you'd ever heard of her. And now she's nominated for the Supreme Court? What distinguishes her for this job?

She was a partner at a big firm in Dallas. There are thousands of litigation partners at big firms across the country. At least John Roberts had argued many times in front of the Supreme Court and was considered among the best in the country at it. What has she done? Are there really no more distinguished candidates?

My new favorite player is, uhhhhh, Brandon McCarthy. He starts for the White Sox tomorrow.

(As a sidenote, if the Sox beat the Yankees tomorrow, the Sox are in the playoffs. If the White Sox beat the Tribe, the So are in the playoffs. If the Tribe wins and the Sox lose, they play Monday for a final playoff spot.)

Come to think of it, maybe Bill Mueller too. Look at his slugging percentage drop.

In any case, I think this Millar's last year under contract, so he's gone. Maybe Mueller too. That alone would be great for the Sox offense.

I read a column lauding the wildcard, touting the great race in the American League and bashing "pesky purists" who had opposed the wild card. I for one, don't like the wild card. I think the best way to choose the best teams in the league is to play the entire season.

The problem with this guy's argument is the specific piece of evidence he cites: the race in the American League. The race actually shows the weakness of the wild card. As he notes, the Sox, Yankees, and the Tribe are all tied with a week to go. It's going to be a close finish. Two teams will advance, one team will go home.

Now imagine if there was no wild card? Well, the American League would have an even *better* race. The Sox, Yankees, and the Tribe would be all tied in the old American League East with a week to go. It would be a fantastic finish. One team would advance, two teams would go home. Note the difference: only one team would advance. More pressure; more tension.


But hey, the guy's a sports columnist. No need for actual substantive analysis! In fact, the guy will probably write the exact same column next year.

Before the season we all thought that Michigan would have a terrific offense and a mediocre defense. That's what I thought as well. I was wrong. Our defense is pretty good, but the offense is crappy. It seems that Henne has regressed--maybe he's missing Braylon Edwards. Also, Steve Breaston hasn't done much all year. Maybe it's the loss of Mike Hart.

Against Wisconsin we generated nothing the whole second half, but for one flea-flicker trick play. I think our defense did a pretty good job, but it was on the field the whole game. They could only hold for so long.

The Sox are done. I can't imagine them coming back after blowing a game like tonight's.

And holy crap is Rita ever a big hurricane.....

It is distasteful for me to note this, because Papi is my favorite player in baseball at the moment (I know, I know, just like everyone else in Red Sox Nation), but I have to admit I'd vote for ARod for MVP in the American League.

Ortiz has had a great year, but ARod has been maybe even better offensively (same slugging, higher average, better speed) and plays a great third base too.

I don't think Michigan is the #4 team in the country. There aren't many teams with better offenses, but the defense looks very average. Northern Illinois shouldn't get 400 yards against Michigan.

I really like New Orleans. But now I wonder whether that sentence should be in the past tense.

What will New Orleans be in the future? At this point, according to www.nola.com (great website), the news is bad and getting worse. Water levels still rising. Levees still broken. I'm no expert, but I figure that having water on both sides of a levee is only going to make it weaker. The articles say 80% of the city is under water. The Superdome, where people were sheltering, has water on the floor. As the water isn't going anywhere anytime soon (water level won't drop until the pumps start working; the pumps are under water and in any case, the levees still have holes in them), I have to think that most of the houses in the city will have to be destroyed as uninhabitable when the water finally goes down in a week (two weeks? a month?). They can't be saved, and they'll rot anyway. And the guns are coming out, as the looters are busy. ("Send in the National Guard! Wait, they're in Tikrit...")

Some of the city will, of course, be rebuilt. What will it look like? Will it ever be the same? I can't imagine it will.

Gotta add Dontrelle Willis to the Cy Young mix, along with Carpenter and Clemens. I still go with Carpenter. Granted Clemens has a better ERA, but Carpenter's pitched 20 more innings and had one bad start all year. In April. Clemens has only one complete game, and Dontrelle Willis has a few bad starts, although he has dropped half a run from his ERA in the last month.

Scratch that. Maybe Timlin's not such a good idea either.

Yesterday I was talking with someone, someone I know and respect, who still believes there was a connection between Al Qaeda and Iraq. On the one hand, it's surprising, because it's been well known for over a year that no such link existed. The point isn't even debatable anymore. I mean, more than a year ago, Colin Powell said so in the New York Times. Even Bush admitted it, almost two year ago! But plenty of people still believe it now.

But I made this point before and I'll make it again. It's like the Gulf of Tonkin. The American people were told that our ships had been attacked by the communist Vietnamese. We believed the government. But it never happened.
Same here. We were sold a bill of goods. Well, several bills of goods. One was the Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (remember them?). Another was that Iraq had connections to Al Qaeda. For that matter, another was that the war would be fast a cheap (all together now, "HA HA funny!"). Years later, after untold lives have been lost or ruined, it turns out that they lied to us about the Gulf of Tonkin, and they lied to us about Iraq too. I just hope we're not still there is another ten years.....

I was reading about a new initiative to build laptops for $100 and distribute them to Africa so kids there can have computers.

I suppose it's a good cause, and it's obviously a sexy, headline-grabbing solution. But I was in Niger last year and the people in my sister's village need $100 laptops like a fish needs a bicycle. Miles from the nearest road, much less the nearest source of electricity, it's an isolated place.

Niger is, of course, an extreme case, but it isn't going to be pulled out of poverty by cheap computing power. The most important thing is to reduce the size of families. There are just too many people. I read that when he was vice president, Al Gore ordered someone to track the most important factors in reducing a country's growth rate. Turns out that the biggest one was educating girls. It's not as flashy as cheap laptops running Linux, but it would be great if a similar effort was made to ensure that every girl in Niger went to high school.

Bush:

I'd make it a goal to make sure that local folks got to make the decision as to whether or not they said creationism has been a part of our history and whether or not people ought to be exposed to different theories as to how the world was formed.

Awful. Should kids also be exposed to different theories of gravity?

I wonder. Are kids in India and China wasting their time creationism? If anyone has any doubts about why American kids have crappy science scores, direct these questions to our president.

I dunno. Maybe it's time to give Timlin a shot....

It turns out the Iraqis are having a bit of trouble with their constitution. As with so many things (reconstruction, insurgents, democracy, oil, etc. etc. etc.), I think the administration has vastly underestimated the difficulty of this task. True to character, they neglected the difficulties. Had they been paying attention, they may have noticed another country that had its own trouble coming to grip with the issue of federalism. After seven years of failure, they tried again. That didn't really get the job done either--sixty one years later the country nearly destroyed itself in an astonishingly brutal civil war.

The population of the United States was 31 million in 1860, and about 620,000 people died. Iraq has about 26 million people (hey, surely we can trust the CIA about Iraq, right?). I don't know that anyone can really say how many civilians have did, but this site says 25,000. Will Iraq dissolve into civil war? I bet it does, unfortunately. And I bet the issue will be federalism. Just like here.

On my way to the train in the morning I walk past Wholefoods, which always has a security guard out front. As I walked past him today a homeless guy happened to approach him at the same time. The following conversation ensued:

Drug-addled homeless guy: "Hey, so'oze goona win Cy Young?"
Security guard: "hmm"
Homeless guy: "Huwza Carpenter fu da Cardinals?"

Then I walked out of range.

Obviously, the security guard should have pointed out that it's only early August, and there's a ton of baseball yet to play. As a Cardinals fan, I was happy to see Chris Carpenter getting some recognition, even if I was surprised that the homeless guy is so up on National League pitching. But Carpenter's having a terrific year.

If the season ended now, would he win the Cy Young? I think it's either him or Clemens. Carpenter has more wins, but Clemens has a better ERA, and it's not Clemens' fault that he's had crappy run support. Clemens hasn't had a truly bad start all year. I'd still give it to Carpenter, though, because of the innings. Clemens has been great, but he's gone eight innings only twice. Carpenter has five complete games (six nine inning starts, but one of his starts went ten), four shutouts, and has pitched at least eight innings nine times.

It's still close, as Smoltz, Dontrelle Willis, Roy Oswalt, and Pedro Martinez are still in the hunt. Livan Hernandez has been, as always, a horse (also nine starts of at least eight innings), but I just don't think he's going to get too many more wins. I see Washington fading.

In any case, I'm happy our homeless population is following baseball.

I always figured that Rafael Palmiero would make it to the Hall of Fame as the ultimate monument to being Pretty Good for a Very Long Time. His career numbers will add up impressively, but has he ever been all that good? He played in a grand total of four All Star Games. He never won an MVP, and only three times was he in the top ten. Forget about being the best player in the league, was he ever the best player on his own team? Ever? Was he ever the best player at his own position?

And now he's been suspended for steroids. If I were a voter, it would be a tough call. Can you vote against a guy with 500 homers and 3000 hits? I dunno. But if I was ever going to vote against someone with those stats, Palmiero would be the guy.

It sounds like the Iraqi government is making noises about having us leave, as soon as next year. Great! However, if Iraq then dissolves into civil war, have we not failed?

For that matter, if the new Iraqi constitution, written by Iraqis, implements the worst aspects of sharia law, have we really succeeded?

Last December I visited Niger, where my sister and brother in law were Peace Corps Volunteers. Yes, the same Niger that is starving.

The people of Niger are unquestionably the most generous I have ever met. In my sister's village, Sabon Gida, THEY brought US more food than we could eat, every night. This is no hyperbole, we stuffed ourselves and could eat no more, and they kept bringing us food. (Maradi, where the BBC story was bylined, is about 120 miles east of Sabon Gida.) I am now faced with the immensely terrible thought that the people who brought us food are now starving themselves.

Niger is not the sort of country where the people starve while the president buys new fighter planes and has a villa in the south of France. Right before we got there they had a peaceful and fair election. The President seems to be a honest man who has improved things in the country. The only sin of the Nigeriens is to be born in a land with too many people, not enough rain, and no real exports except uranium and onions--and I bet there aren't even any onions this year.

If you've been thinking about this at all, I urge you to make a donation.

My sister and my brother in law recommend CARE (https://donate.care.org/05/170420990000/) and Catholic Relief Services (http://www.crs.org/make_a_gift/individual/index.cfm). I encountered people from both organizations and neither one is spending money on upkeep of their buildings or lavish salaries of their staff.

I recently saw Wor of the Worlds. On the recommendation of someone who shall remain nameless (but is Tom Lorek's mother's son), who said it was "more craptacular than Independence Day". Now I thought Independence Day was pretty craptacular, so that's a pretty high endorsement.

Revenge of the Sith was better.

War of the Worlds is so silly. It's just dumb. Independence Day (against which it must be compared) had a plot, albeit a plot with holes one could, uh, drive a spaceship through. This didn't even have a plot. It was a dumb movie with annoying unconvincing characters. Dumb dumb dumb.

First Martha Stewart. Now Lil' Kim.

The lesson: Don't Lie To The Feds.

Ugh.

229 years ago a bunch of rich white men got together and signed their own death warrants (i.e. the Declaration of Independence). Would the today's leading politicians stand up and risk life and limb for this country?

We know that Bush wouldn't. And we know that Cheney wouldn't.

Thank God we had leaders back then who were brave....

I recently saw the new Star Wars.

In the interest of seeing the glass as 1/16 full, I present the following two positive points about it:


a) It was undeniably better than the last two movies (nos. 1 and 2 in the sequence)

and

b) None of us ever have to see another Star Wars movie in theaters again. It's over.

Remember when the reason we went to war in Iraq was because they were hiding weapons of mass destruction? Or remember when the reason we went to war in Iraq was because of the connections between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden? Or remember when we were at war in Iraq to bring democracy to the Middle East?

NOW, it turns out, we're at war in Iraq because that's where all the terrorists are, and of course we have to fight the terrorists. Well yes, there are terrorists there. And yes, those terrorists are there to kill Americans. Is it not blindingly obvious that the terrorists are in Iraq ONLY because we are there first? I mean, can anyone seriously doubt that we are the cause of the terrorists in Iraq right now?

Thirty years ago, we cut and we ran out of Vietnam. Thank God we did. It was a war that could not be won. However, we were in Vietnam for 15 years before that. I hope we don't wait thirteen more years to get out of Iraq.....

I hate to say it, but I wonder whether Kevin Millar was on steroids last year. Consider his numbers.

His slugging percentage sure has dropped, hasn't it?

I'm sometimes a fan of Christopher Hitchens (especially his thoughts on Henry Kissinger), but here undoubtedly gets it right here.

Airport security is absolutely stupid. For all of the reasons he mentions, and many others:

-Either it is justified or it is not justified to make everyone take off their shoes in before going through the x-ray machine. But the government has yet to come up with a consistent policy.

-What's more dangerous, nail clippers or a big hardsided laptop? For that matter, what's more dangerous, a small pen knife or a big hardsided laptop? Obviously, it's the laptop. A laptop would be a pretty effective club, I bet. Of course, they can't ban laptops, because that would be too inconvenient.

We have a "security system" that ends up filtering out only those things that aren't too inconvenient, which is to say, not real security.


Hitchens doesn't mention that all of this is also useless. If a terrorist took over a plane these days, everyone would rush the cockpit, because everyone knows that they're already dead anyway. This is a classic instance of fighting the last war.

No surprise why the Sox are mediocre this season.

Millar: .237 (hellooo, John Olerud!)
Mueller: .264
Bellhorn: .244
Payton: .226

I guess I can't insult Bellhorn after his homer in Game 7 last year, but still. .244 is .244. I don't care how many walks you have.

By the way, who's Jay Payton and how is he getting so many at bats????

When this is the bottom half of your lineup, you're not going to score a lot of runs....

It appears that Cheney was offended by the Amnesty report on Guantanamo Bay. To me, the most important quote is: "For Amnesty International to suggest that somehow the United States is a violator of human rights, I frankly just don't take them seriously."

That's just it. He, and the administration he runs, just doesn't take this seriously. I'm not sure why. I have no doubt that some of the former prisoners are liars. And some are undoubtedly terrorists. But the administration just can't seem to admit the possibility that there has been abuse, and that abuse is torture. But how many stories do we need?

I just can't believe that every single one of these former prisoners is lying. I wish I believed it, for America's sake. But there are too many stories to disbelieve them. I don't share the administration's blind faith that we would never torture. It's not impossible. Do they ever ask themselves "What if we're wrong?"? I don't know.

Is President Bush actually Woodrow Wilson? For some reason I've been reading a bunch of books about the time between 1910 and 1920, and I think the comparison is apt.

Both are utterly convinced that God is on their side, believers that America is somehow unique in the world and that it is America's role to lead the world into a new tomorrow.

Wilson's proudest creation, the League of Nations, failed. I suppose the analogy with Bush would be his war in Iraq. I'm betting it's going to fail too. It's sure not going well so far. Another helicopter shot down today.... Ugh.

It seems to me that the Senate could really end this whole filibuster debate quickly. Especially for W's judges who don't generate ideological debate. There are a couple from Michigan who've been nominated to the 6th Circuit and, from what I read, they're only opposed because NONE of Clinton's nominees from Michigan to the 6th Circuit were ever brought to a vote. (Some of them languishing for years.)

So why not nominate one of each? One of W's, and have him nominate one of Clinton's. Done.

By the way, the Republicans aren't really going to be as small minded as to eliminate filibusters, are they? Are they so daft as to think they're going to always have the President?