Maddux-Clemens

With Maddux retiring, we can look at the final comparison of his wins with Clemens.




After last year I thought that Maddux would pas Clemens this year and have a shot at getting to 361 wins and #6 all time. That won't happen, but I doubt anyone will pass him again.

And get ready for a slew of articles saying how great he was. Too many times, these articles are written about undeserving players. Not this time.

Maddux

I was juuuust a little bit early on my prediction of when Maddux would pass Roger Clemens. July, September, what's the big difference?

He tied Clemens today with 354 wins, tied for eighth on the list.

Can he get seven more wins at move ahead of, uhhh, Pud Galvin and Kid Nichols? Depends on whether San Diego or the Dodgers needs him next year. I don't think he'll pitch anywhere else.

Momentous Day in United States History

Today, June 3, 2008, at approximately 8:15 PM EDT, Randy Johnson struck out Mike Cameron, passing Roger Clemens for the second most strikeouts in major league history. He now trails only Nolan Ryan (by about 1100 strikeouts; he's never gonna catch him).



What, did something else important happen today?

I was wrong about Randy Johnson. I thought he would pass Clemens sometime around the 4th of July. Instead, it'll probably happen this week. Johnson struck out 19 guys in his last two starts and he's now tied with Clemens. I think Johnson pitches Tuesday, so he should pass him then.

Clemens, History

Roger Clemens isn't going to pitch again. Even Yahoo Sports has removed him from their active list. So he'll retire with 354 wins.

Maddux just won game 350, so he ought to pass Clemens sometime in July.

As I noted a year ago, Clemens' lead has been shrinking since 1991.

In addition to "Winningest Pitcher of His Generation", he'll probably lose the "Strikeout King of his Generation" title sometime later this summer too, if Randy Johnson stays healthy. I tracked the strikeout difference between them earlier. Clemens got a few more strikeouts since that last post, while Johnson was hurt, and they were about tied last year. So far Johnson is punching out 5.6 guys per start. As of today, Clemens is 28 strikeouts ahead of him:

Randy Johnson's back could give out at any time, but if he can stay healthy, he should pass Clemens around the Fourth of July.

Mitchell Report

American Lawyer magazine is perhaps not the most widely read publication out there, but it had a moderately interesting article on the Mitchell Report.

Apparently it cost Bud Selig* $20 million. Was it money well spent? I don't know, but it sure would have been a lot easier if he had taken action ten years ago, or five years ago.

The article does make it very clear that Mitchell reached out repeatedly to the Players Association. Roger Clemens can yammer on all he wants about how easy he is to find, but that's hardly George Mitchell's fault. He ought to be complaining to his agents and the Players Association.

Clemens!

Seriously, this Clemens story is gold.

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform was kind enough to lay out his various lies and half-truths in glorious detail.

Does it really make sense to go after Clemens for perjury? There are, ahem, a few more important problems out there.

As I've said before, jail ought to be for punishment, not deterrence. However, like with Martha Stewart (and Lil' Kim), there's something to be said for throwing the occasional Big Name in jail when there's a clear case of perjury. I bet there were plenty of people who paid attention when Martha Stewart was hauled off, and there would be lots of ballplayers who would sit up and take notice if Clemens went to the Big House.

Clemens

Among the *many* ludicrous things Clemens said yesterday was a bizarre discussion of his availability to George Mitchell. Someone asked him why he didn't respond to Mitchell when Mitchell asked to talk to him when he was preparing the report.

Clemens said that he didn't know that Mitchell wanted to talk with him and went on at length about how easy he is to find, emphasizing how he responded to Bud Selig when Selig asked him to be a member of the USA team for the World Baseball Classic. He blames Bud Selig for not contacting him.

Obviously this is wildly irrelevant. Although he didn't pick up the phone to call Clemens personally, Mitchell DID contact his agents on multiple occasions. I can't imagine that his agents didn't pass word along to Clemens that he was under investigation. It's ridiculous for Clemens to try to blame Mitchell or Selig.

I'd wager that his agents told him that Mitchell was asking about him, but they also advised him to ignore Mitchell, which was the same advice the players union was giving. Oops.

Clemens!

The Clemens hearings were today, at least the first round. Tom Verducci has a great summary.

At this point, I don't think *anyone* is believable. It's clear that McNamee should never be trusted. I'm sure some of the things he's saying are the truth. But he's now changing his story too many times for me to keep track.

Clemens is also entirely unbelievable. He keeps changing his story, and he never managed to describe why McNamee would lie about what happened.

I think part of the problem is that professional athletes aren't used to having anyone actually pay attention to what they say. They are asked dumb questions ("What does this game mean for you?") their whole life, they give the same stock answers ("We're taking things one game at a time") and then repeat. Their job isn't to be honest, it's to perform on the field. They are used to lying, both the big lies and the small ones. Normally, they are the ones who choose what questions to answer and which sportswriters to ignore. Here, the dynamic is reversed. Congress chooses the questions, but they have to come up with something for every one of them.

Outside the bubble, where people actually pay attention to their every word, and where their questioners have the power, they stumble. They're not used to this.



Not surprisingly, these hearings give sportswriters the opportunity to look ridiculous. Jason Stark:

What I'll be looking for -- what you should be looking for -- is who squirms, who stammers, who hedges. Look for body language. Look for who can't recall what.

Hey Jayson, do you by any chance remember the last round of congressional hearings? Do you remember if there was a player who had the whole 'convincing body language' thing down? Remember how that turned out? Maybe don't trust the body language quite to much.

More steroids

For a long time, Barry Bonds and his lawyers would insist that this whole steroids investigation was really just a ploy to "get" Bonds.

While it played well in San Francisco, it wasn't really true, and they're going to have a hard time getting anyone to believe that argument anymore.

Clemens

This Clemens story is going to be great. He just filed a defamation lawsuit against his old trainer, Brian McNamee.

The legal case is so weak that it must be for show.

In nonlawyer talk, to win a defamation case a plaintiff has to show that the defendant made a false statement and that he (the plaintiff) suffered damages. Was McNamee's statement false? Obviously, that's the big debate--whether McNamee told the truth. Clemens would have to show that McNamee lied. Seems unlikely, considering that McNamee testified to the Feds under penalty of perjury.

Even worse for Clemens, it's harder for "public figures" to win a defamation case. The theory is that public figures voluntarily put themselves out there to be praised by people, so they also have to accept more criticism. As a public figure, Clemens will also have to show that McNamee acted with "actual malice". I don't think he can show actual malice.

McNamee made his comments under oath to the Feds. Even if McNamee is lying, and it would be crazy for him to lie under oath, it doesn't make sense that he would have actual malice to Clemens. (I suppose it's theoretically possible that he has a big grudge against Clemens and made all this up to "get" him, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.)

In any event, I'm sure the legal ridiculousness is just starting!

Clemens

Wait, Roger Clemens is now going to hire private investigators to look at Brian McNamee, the source of the Mitchell report's allegations against him?

Welllllllll, ok. But why didn't he do it when George Mitchell contacted him? Why did Clemens stonewall Mitchell? This doesn't exactly help his credibility.

The Mitchell Report

The Mitchell report is out and it is big news. Big big big.

There are about a thousand tangents to this story. Here are three:

-I don't think anyone ought to believe that the list of players is comprehensive. Mitchell got just a couple of suppliers to talk. They were surely not the only enablers out there.

-The Players Union is justifiably roasted. The union tried to obstruct Mitchelll at every turn. They would have been *far* better off to just blow the doors open with information and get everything out in public at once. Since information is going to keep coming out over the months and (ugh) years, it's going to be far worse for them. Donald Fehr sees everything as a fight. Sometimes he was right, but in this case he was wrong. And he's going to reap what he sowed for a long time.

-Roger Clemens. Clemens Clemens Clemens. Along with every other named player, he refused Mitchell's offer to talk before the report came out. (Surely this was another canny ploy by the union. Oops.)

The evidence against him is damning. Tom Verducci correlated Clemens' steroid use with his 1998 numbers. Before steroids, he was 6-6 with a 3.27 ERA. After he was 14-0 with a 2.29 ERA. It's worth noting that the last four years before 1998 Clemens was 40-39. It looks like he was indeed on the downside of his career.

The question is what Clemens is going to do. He doesn't have a lot of good options.

I don't know whether he cares about the court of public opinion. He could become a recluse, a la Mark McGwire, and avoid the public entirely.

He could have his publicist issue some bland statement, and retire. Refuse to talk about the past. This is what I bet he'll do.

Or he could come clean. Admit what happened in every detail. It would be fascinating. It would also require honesty and humility. No chance.

Maddux

Greg Maddux signed a one year contract with the Padres.

He's now just seven wins behind Clemens on the career wins list. I have to think that Clemens is done--no one is going to pay him $20 million to make seventeen starts and go 6-6.

So if he stays healthy, Maddux should pass Clemens sometime next summer.

Meanwhile Glavine signed back with the Braves for one more year. He's probably good for about ten more wins, so he'll finish in the top twenty if he stays healthy.

Clemens goes to the Hall in 2012, Glavine in 2013, and Maddux? I dunno. He still won 14 games last year....

Clemens-Maddux

I noted at the start of the season that while Clemens has more wins than Maddux, his lead has been shrinking since 1991.

Maddux had a pretty good year last year. Clemens, a little less so, but it wasn't too bad. Both of them had ERAs significantly better than the league average. Clemens, though, seems less likely to come back. I can't imagine that anyone will pay him that much money again.

After this year, Maddux is within striking distance. Clemens' lead was 15 at the end of last season; now it's 7.

Maddux keeps rolling along and I believe he has another year left on this contract. Of course he could get hurt. But barring injury, he looks good for another 10-13 wins next year. I don't know about Clemens.

I still think it's cool that the #8 and #9 career wins leaders are simultaneously active. I can't imagine it will ever happen again. I don't know that Clemens will get to Kid Nichols and Pud Galvin, but I wouldn't put it past Maddux if he stays healthy. Probably not next year, when he ought to finish with about 358 wins. But maybe after the following, if he sticks around. If he stays healthy for two more years, it's possible he could pass Warren Spahn and end up #5 on the all time list.

Torre

Will Steinbrenner really fire Torre?

He can't blame Torre for not having any good pitchers, can he? Of the Yankees rotation, Wang was solid, Pettitte was acceptable, Mussina was at best a #5 starter, and Clemens was tired. That staff is just old.

Wang's a legitimate #2 starter, Pettitte a #3, Mussina a #5, Clemens maybe a #4. Phil Hughes unquestionably has a lot of potential. The obvious problem in the staff is no dominant #1 starter, inexcusable for a team with the $215 million payroll. Before the season, who did they think was going to be their #1 starter?

It's hardly Torre's fault that he has an old, tired staff. Their offense could get them through the regular season, but you can't win in the postseason without pitching.


I won't even touch their bullpen. How can they have only two good relievers on the staff?

Clemens

I'm obviously not a big fan of Clemens.

However I am a big fan of baseball history. And my dad's favorite pitcher was Warren Spahn. Today Clemens got his 350th, the first to do so since Spahn in 1963. Somehow (what are the chances?) the guy who caught Spahn was named Joe Torre. Really, what are the chances? It's a funny game....

There's a pretty good chance that Maddux will get to 350 next year, if he stays healthy, but after that we'll be lucky to see anyone else get to 350. For now, though, I hope Clements keeps pitching. Bring on Kid Nichols!

Baseball Players

It's not news that baseball players aren't brain surgeons. They're also great at spewing out a lot of garbage in interviews.

But still. When Jeter was asked about the possibility of Clemens getting career win 350 yesterday (he lost to Colorado, though he pitched well) he said the following:

"It's longevity and consistency, I don't think you'll see anyone else get to that number."


Ehhhhh, Derek ol' buddy, ever heard of a guy named Maddux? You may be interested to learn that he's won 339 games in his career. It's pretty reasonable to think that he'll have a chance at "that number", assuming he stays healthy.....

Clemens-Unit

I was talking with someone about my earlier post about the win differential between Clemens and Maddux, and how that may have influenced Clemens to come back again. (I'm keeping track; the gap is at 11 after Clemens' win yesterday.)

I learned that another legacy Clemens is perhaps thinking about is strikeouts. Turns out that Randy Johnson recently tied him in career strikeouts, although Clemens went back ahead of him with his win yesterday. Assuming everyone stays healthy, it'll be tougher for Clemens to stay ahead of Johnson. Clemens just isn't a strikeout pitcher anymore. It looks like he made an adjustment in 1999 when he signed with the Yankees and his strikeouts dropped. He's been losing ground every year since 1997, except for 2003, when Johnson only made 18 starts.

The numbers:


Note: Nolan Ryan is still waaaaaaay ahead at 5714. He's got nothing to worry about.

300

Not the movie.

I'm mildly obsessed with career wins, specifically 300 game winners. Presently Clemens has 348 and Maddux 337, a rare instance where two pitchers in the top ten are active.

Barring injury, Glavine will almost certainly get to 300 this year--he's at 295 right now and is pitching well. The Very Large Unit is at 282. He won't get there this year. Maybe next year, if his back will let him.

Who's next? No one, not for a while. If we look at active 200 game winners, none of them will get to 300. Mussina's 38, and I doubt he has 59 wins left in him, considering the last four seasons he won 57. He appears to be running out of gas.

Boomer, Jamie Moyer (quick, who knew he had more wins than Pedro or Schilling?), Kevin Brown (why is he on the "active" list?), Kenny Rogers, Pedro (love him!), and now Smoltz, who may have had a chance if he didn't spend four years relieving, but now is making a very strong case for the Hall of Fame...none of them are going to get there.

Looking further down the list, the next likely candidate is Tim Hudson, who's a long 176 wins away. It's possible that he could average 15 wins for the next twelve years. I think a better bet is Roy Oswalt. He's won a lot of games already, but he has to get on a team that score some runs for him. The rest of the list--Buerle, Halladay, Sabathia, etc.--is so far away that speculation is pointless, no matter how good Johan Santana is. It's at least ten years away, probably more. So after Glavine and Randy Johnson, there won't be any 300 game winners until, oh, 2018, maybe 2020.