Randy Johnson

I am looking forward to Randy Johnson getting win 300. He's now at 298.

Two years ago, I doubted he'd get to 300.

Barring injury, the Very Large Unit will get win 300 in the next few weeks. Very cool. Then there will be another slew of articles about how we'll never see another 300 game winner, just like there were when Glavine got to 300. In 2007. (Note the Sports Illustrated article I linked to, which has a quote from Bobby Cox about Tom Glavine: "Tommy will be the last 300-game winner ever." Thanks, Bobby.)

Momentous Day in United States History

Today, June 3, 2008, at approximately 8:15 PM EDT, Randy Johnson struck out Mike Cameron, passing Roger Clemens for the second most strikeouts in major league history. He now trails only Nolan Ryan (by about 1100 strikeouts; he's never gonna catch him).



What, did something else important happen today?

I was wrong about Randy Johnson. I thought he would pass Clemens sometime around the 4th of July. Instead, it'll probably happen this week. Johnson struck out 19 guys in his last two starts and he's now tied with Clemens. I think Johnson pitches Tuesday, so he should pass him then.

Clemens, History

Roger Clemens isn't going to pitch again. Even Yahoo Sports has removed him from their active list. So he'll retire with 354 wins.

Maddux just won game 350, so he ought to pass Clemens sometime in July.

As I noted a year ago, Clemens' lead has been shrinking since 1991.

In addition to "Winningest Pitcher of His Generation", he'll probably lose the "Strikeout King of his Generation" title sometime later this summer too, if Randy Johnson stays healthy. I tracked the strikeout difference between them earlier. Clemens got a few more strikeouts since that last post, while Johnson was hurt, and they were about tied last year. So far Johnson is punching out 5.6 guys per start. As of today, Clemens is 28 strikeouts ahead of him:

Randy Johnson's back could give out at any time, but if he can stay healthy, he should pass Clemens around the Fourth of July.

Randy Johnson

I apologize for the delay. I'm now back in action.

And I'm starting with Randy Johnson and my moderate obsession with winning 300 games. Johnson's presently at 286, having gone 2-1 this year. Last summer I doubted his chances. They're still not great, but I'm rooting for him.

Can he get 14 more wins this year? I doubt it, especially if his ERA continues to be 5.06. It seems that his back could give out at any time, and I don't see him going through another long rehab. If he can't get it this year, will he want to come back in 2009? Let's just hope he makes it this year.

He doesn't have to be "The Man" in Arizona. The Snakes are looking gooooood at 23-12. Maybe he can pick up some wins against other teams' #4 and #5 starters. I hope so.

Clemens-Unit

I was talking with someone about my earlier post about the win differential between Clemens and Maddux, and how that may have influenced Clemens to come back again. (I'm keeping track; the gap is at 11 after Clemens' win yesterday.)

I learned that another legacy Clemens is perhaps thinking about is strikeouts. Turns out that Randy Johnson recently tied him in career strikeouts, although Clemens went back ahead of him with his win yesterday. Assuming everyone stays healthy, it'll be tougher for Clemens to stay ahead of Johnson. Clemens just isn't a strikeout pitcher anymore. It looks like he made an adjustment in 1999 when he signed with the Yankees and his strikeouts dropped. He's been losing ground every year since 1997, except for 2003, when Johnson only made 18 starts.

The numbers:


Note: Nolan Ryan is still waaaaaaay ahead at 5714. He's got nothing to worry about.

300

Not the movie.

I'm mildly obsessed with career wins, specifically 300 game winners. Presently Clemens has 348 and Maddux 337, a rare instance where two pitchers in the top ten are active.

Barring injury, Glavine will almost certainly get to 300 this year--he's at 295 right now and is pitching well. The Very Large Unit is at 282. He won't get there this year. Maybe next year, if his back will let him.

Who's next? No one, not for a while. If we look at active 200 game winners, none of them will get to 300. Mussina's 38, and I doubt he has 59 wins left in him, considering the last four seasons he won 57. He appears to be running out of gas.

Boomer, Jamie Moyer (quick, who knew he had more wins than Pedro or Schilling?), Kevin Brown (why is he on the "active" list?), Kenny Rogers, Pedro (love him!), and now Smoltz, who may have had a chance if he didn't spend four years relieving, but now is making a very strong case for the Hall of Fame...none of them are going to get there.

Looking further down the list, the next likely candidate is Tim Hudson, who's a long 176 wins away. It's possible that he could average 15 wins for the next twelve years. I think a better bet is Roy Oswalt. He's won a lot of games already, but he has to get on a team that score some runs for him. The rest of the list--Buerle, Halladay, Sabathia, etc.--is so far away that speculation is pointless, no matter how good Johan Santana is. It's at least ten years away, probably more. So after Glavine and Randy Johnson, there won't be any 300 game winners until, oh, 2018, maybe 2020.