College Football

There's nothing going on this time of year in the world of college football.

That's why ESPN just ran a series ranking every program over the last 10 years. They had people vote on it. They voted USC the top program, and I can't really argue with them.

But I've been thinking about this for a while. I think 25 years is a better time frame. I looked at the final AP polls from each of the last 25 years and assigned points based on where teams finished, so Florida gets 25 points for finishing #1 last year, and Tennessee gets one point for finishing #25. But I subtract one point per year, so Texas gets 24 points for finishing #1 in 2005 and Nebraska gets one point for finishing #24. Et cetera. Penn State got one point for finishing #1 in 1982; nobody else got anything.

It's not perfect, but it is interesting. As a way of measuring programs over the last 25 years, it does a pretty good job. Here are the results:


(click to make it legible)

For those who prefer their data raw (and alphabetical):



From looking at the raw data, it becomes clear why Florida State does so well: 1992-2000.

One thing I like about this system is that old victories are worth less. Florida State will lose 19 points next year because it was ranked high enough in 19 of the previous 25 polls, so if it finishes out of the rankings again, it will have 158 points. Similarly, Miami loses 17 points, so if it isn't ranked it will drop to 146.

To point out one interesting thing, almost all of USC's points come since 2002.

As for Michigan, we take a hit, losing 16 points. For us to gain points, we must finish in the top ten. (I doubt we'll pass Ohio State, which loses just 10 points, thanks to mediocre finishes under Earle Bruce.) If we finish #1, we'll gain 9 (=25-16) points to finish next season with 138. But I'm not counting on it.