Orrin Hatch

I'm looking forward to the followup article on the Senator's thoughts on whether BYU deserves to go to play for the national championship after Saturday's game.

There's a general ridiculousness with this kind of article. After three weeks of games, there are lots and lots of undefeated teams. Plenty of teams *could* run the table, but not many of them will, and not many will be close.

I was also entertained by the last bit, about a possible matchup of two undefeated teams (BYU-Utah) at the end of the season. That sure would be exciting. But BYU wasn't the only Mountain West team to sink it's national championship chances last week.

Right, Senator?

Eastern

Normally I wish the best for former Michigan football coaches. Lloyd Carr is a quality guy, and I want to see his coaching tree prosper.

But not tomorrow. I hope Ron English has a bad day at his new gig. (Actually, I read somewhere that it was Lloyd Carr, acting as an unpaid consultant to Eastern's Athletic Director, who recommended Ron English for the job. Good for him, and it's good to give Ron English a chance. If he can have a .500 record at Eastern, he will deserve to be hired at a school where he has a real chance of success. Eastern is a tough place to win. It's hard enough to be a small D-1 school in a state with two dominant D-1 programs; it's even harder when you're only the second best program in your own county.)

I also wish the best for former Michigan football players. Those best wishes will also be placed on selective hold tomorrow.

More Greinke

There seems to be a meme going around, at least in some circles, that Greinke should in the Cy Young. Yes! (Note: another win today.)

Granted I thought his main competition wit the voters would be Sabathia, but King Felix (ERA: 2.52) is more deserving as Sabathia (ERA: 3.42) anyway. Greinke's now 14-8. Maybe one more victory will give him a round enough number to get the voters....

Cy Young

The American Cy Young is Zack Greinke's to lose. Or it should be, if the voters will vote for a brilliant pitcher on a crappy team.

Yes, Sabathia has more wins, but Greinke's ERA is MORE than a run better, 2.19 vs 3.42. Greinke also has significantly more complete games (6 vs 2), shutouts (3 vs 1), and strikeouts (216 vs 178). He's also a great story. I suppose Roy Halladay could make a late run, but Greinke's ERA is so much better (2.19 vs 3.03), that unless Greinke crumbles, he should win.

In the National League, it's between Lincecum, Carpenter, and Wainwright. They have three best ERAs (in order, 2.34, 2.45, and 2.59). Wainwright's the only one with a chance to get to 20 wins (he's at 18 now), and although wins aren't the best measure, 20 is such a significant milestone that if he gets there, I think he'll win. At this point, though, it's too close to call...

Are We Back?

Michigan had a huge win against Notre Dame and for the first time in almost two years, I'm excited about the team.

Jimmy Clausen has been given a hard time in the past by Michigan fans. But in fairness, wow was he good yesterday. Give him a decent offensive line and he becomes Tom Brady, just sits back and picks you apart. Thankfully, Charlie "Schematic Advantage" Weis decided to stop throwing to his outstanding wide receivers in the 3rd quarter and run the ball instead. Good move Charlie--they were dominating Michigan's defense and thanks for shaking things up!

Michigan is not yet a national power, of course, but we're ranked this week for the first time in a loooooong time. That feels pretty good.

College Football, 1999-2008

As I did the last two years, it's easy to look at the most dominant teams of the last ten years as well. It's the same scoring as yesterday's post, but no seasons before 1999 count:


Surprising no one, USC is the top program of the last ten years. Because recent results matter more, Florida State is hit a lot harder by this measure than by yesterday's rankings over the last 25 years. Michigan is hanging on at #10, but we'll drop further before we start improving again.

College Football

Actual college football is starting. Before the season starts, I should update my own rankings of teams over the last 25 years, as I did after the 2006 and 2007 seasons.

To review, last year's #1 team, Florida, gets 25 points and so on down to last year's #25 team, BYU, which gets one point. Every year you lose one point, so the #1 team in 2007 gets 24 points, the #1 team in 2006 gets 23, etc. This chart takes the 2008 season into account:


East Carolina and Fresno State are eliminated from last year; it looks like Minnesota and Pitt (who may be decent) will be next. Oklahoma State is new this year.

In terms of patterns, Michigan continues its fall. Sigh. We were in the top 5 just two years ago, this year we should be passed by Georgia and LSU. USC continues to move up. The big fall is Florida State, which was #1 the first two years and surely would also have been #1 had I done this earlier, but that program has been fading for years as Bobby Bowden refuses to give up. USC and Oklahoma will probably pass them this year. Miami is matching Florida State in terms of the rate of its decay. I don't know that either one of them will turn it around anytime soon.

Nebraska and Colorado have also dropped, which is reflected both in their reduced score and the inclusion of Kansas and Missouri chasing after them.

Little League World Series

Am I the only person who doesn't give a damn about the Little League World Series? Seriously, I don't care. At all. I have a strong bias against any "sport" where the contestants are 12 years old. Olympic gymnastics, Little League, figure skating, etc., etc.

I suspect that it's because I have doubts about the athletes. Are they really competing for themselves? Can someone who's 12 really make a decision to train, to devote his or her life to working so hard at anything? Or is it because their parents put them up to it? (For competitors from the former Warsaw Pact and present day China, is it because the government is holding their parents hostage? Ahem.) It just seems weird and unimportant to me.


I mean, they're just kids. When I see the Little League World Series I see a bunch of little kids. Who cares what they do?

Citizenship

I find it interesting that Jason Bay, from Canada "becomes" a US citizen the same day that Aroldis Chapman, from Cuba, "defects".

Is Jason Bay sort of defecting too?


Also, reading the article: Aroldis Chapman...Rotterdam...Jose Contreras...yeah yeah...raw prospect...100 mph fastball, wait, hang on, 100 mph fastball? He's been clocked at 102? Seriously? Ok, now I'm paying attention. Yes. Welcome to America, Senor Chapman. Happy to have you here.

More Mariano

Great story in the New York Times (although it's curious they don't mention Alexander Karelin...they must not be up on this blog).

I don't see any mention of his most devastating outing. Three (!) innings. I distinctly remember that he was the last guy in the Yankee pen, and if Aaron Boone doesn't hit that homer, the Sox were going to win that game. Or maybe he would have pitched forever that night, because he's Mariano Rivera.



As a sidenote, Tim Salmon. Haven't thought of him for a while.

SPAIN

Spain. We beat Spain 2-0. Seriously. Spain.



Spain is the best soccer team in the world right now. Without a doubt. It's such a stunning outcome, I don't even know how to react. Exactly two of our players play regularly in a top European (England, Spain, Italy) league, Clint Dempsey at Fulham and our keeper, Tim Howard, at Everton. Every single player on the Spanish team plays regularly in Spain or England. The only guy on our roster who might--might!-- make the Spanish squad is Howard.

Although I bet Oguchi Onyewu and Jay Demerit will get some serious consideration by teams looking for central defenders after this game. Spain spent much of the game unsuccessfully trying to cross the ball in past these two. The last half hour of the game consisted largely of Spain crossing the ball across our goal and one of those two heading it away. It's a nervy strategy, and it only works if one has complete confidence in one's central defense, it worked today.
And I bet Jozy Altidore will get a lot more playing time next season. He's looking good.

Peter Vecsey points out that the real benefit should come in the draw for the 2010 World Cup, where we should (finally!) be seeded ahead of Mexico.


Where would I put this on the list of US Soccer victories? #5. It's not higher because it didn't happen in the World Cup.

#1 USA 2-Mexico 0 in the 2002 World Cup: (a) we made the quarterfinals, and (b) we knocked Mexico out of the World Cup. It doesn't get any better.

#2 USA 3-Portugal 2 2002 World Cup group stage: Portugal was seen as a serious contender for the title. This game was personally outstanding because Schlamp was so tired he lay his head down on the bar of the Chieftain at halftime and napped. For me, this was funny. For Schlamp's immune system, this was a test. You don't want to put your head on the bar of the Chieftain.

#3 USA 2-Columbia 1, 1994 World Cup group stage: supposedly Columbia was going to challenge for the title.

#4 USA 1-England 0, 1950 World Cup: it happened a long time ago.

Sammy Sosa

Sadly, is anyone surprised? I didn't think so.

The Experiment

Someone (Schlamp?) brought up the possibility of Alexander Karelin as a candidate for athletic dominance. Yes.

Karelin went undefeated from 1987-2000. I'll give him 13 consecutive years of dominance, which puts him one above Mariano Rivera. As The Experiment, Karelin may also have the best nickname. We'll see how long Rivera is on top, it seems to me he's slipping a little. Just a little. He can't pitch forever (right?), and Papelbon or K-Rod may become the guy baseball people most trust to get out of an inning if their lives depended on it. But my sense is that Rivera is still the man, until further notice.


I also thought of Steve Redgrave. Who? Just a guy who won gold medals in rowing at (ahem) five different Olympics. But he wasn't always the best. He came in third in 1990 in a race. Plus, crew is such a team sport. Except for singles, you're always part of a team, and everyone is doing the same work. It's tough to say that anyone is the "best". Redgrave may be the greatest rower in history, but it's difficult to prove that he was the best rower in the world at any one point.

Mariano Rivera

How many people are the best in the world at what they do? Usually, it's hard to even know who's the best in the world at anything, much less find the person who's the best at it.

Now consider, how many people have been the best in the world at their chosen profession for twelve consecutive years? Mariano Rivera's had some competition lately: Papelbon's been great the last couple of years, and plenty of other closers have had individually better years. But since he became a closer in 1997, pretty much everyone in baseball would choose him to pitch the bottom of the ninth with a one run lead.

Has any athlete in history ever been the best at what he did for twelve consecutive years?

My first thought was Edwin Moses. Undefeated from 1977-1987, he won Olympic Gold in 1976. He was at the top from 1976-1987, but by 1988, he "only" got the bronze in Seoul. He didn't last 12 years.

You could make a case for Rickey Henderson. He was the best leadoff hitter in baseball starting about 1980, but I don't think he was necessarily the best for 12 years. Henderson was hurt in 1987, and Vince Coleman was probably better. Tim Raines was undoubtedly better in 1986. Henderson was the best for a long time, but not consecutively.

What about Bill Russell? If one assumes he was the best center in basketball starting in the 1957-58 season, when he was the league MVP, I'm not sure he lasts 12 years. I don't follow basketball closely enough to know, but according to wikipedia, Russell was falling off by the 67-68 season. Maybe Russell gets ten or eleven years, but that's not as impressive as Rivera

Am I missing any other plausible candidates?


(As a sidenote, Edwin Moses was a double major in college in physics and industrial engineering? So he's like Ed Cho, but faster and with an additional physics major.)

Sonia Sotomayor

I'm making a rare reversion back into politics, because the Supreme Court is important.

Obviously, Sonia Sotomayor's ethnicity and her gender are hot topics. The way I see it, there are somewhere around 100 people in this country who are qualified for the Supreme Court at any given time. We may not agree with their decisions, but they have the training, background, and experience to be qualified. (I think that both of W's appointees, Roberts and Alito, fall into the 'qualified' category, although his first choice, Harriet Miers, definitely does not.)

So the President has to choose someone from a pool of people, all of whom have roughly the same set of qualifications. I think that it's worthwhile if the Supreme Court resembles the people of this country, and since Sotomayor comes from the set of people who are eligible due to their experience, she's a good choice.

Sonia Sotomayor is unquestionably qualified. None of the present justices ever worked as a state prosecutor, and only Alito, who worked as a federal prosecutor, has ANY criminal law experience. Hard to believe, but true. NONE of the present justices ever served as a trial judge (Souter did, but he's the one who's retiring). Since the justices regularly have to decide questions that are a trial judge's bread and butter (evidence, procedure, jury instructions, etc.), it would be worthwhile to have someone in the room who's actually had to make those kind of decisions.

So what kind of justice will she be? I don't have any idea. No one does. Souter was supposed to be a pocket conservative, and Scalia was seen as a moderate consensus builder. Who knows how someone will be in ten or twenty years? Not me.

One can demand that the President chooses someone who falls in the 'qualified' group, but outside that, you pretty much just have to hope they rule the way you want when the time comes.

Zach Greinke is ridiculous. It's one thing to pitch well at the start of the season, but we're two months in and his ERA after two months is 0.84.

In this start he went from 72 to 96 on consecutive pitches. That's just wrong. He's also a great (from 2007) story (2009). I have no particular insignt into his psychology, but I hope he stays healthy. The Royals are at .500, and it's surely been a while since that happened two months into the season....

Randy Johnson

I've long been a fan of the guy.

I'm also a fan of Bill James, of course, although I find this Joe Posnanski fellow rather annoying. But here Posnanski is right on. Maybe the lesson is that he should always use Bill James as a resource. Bill James cannot help but be interesting.

I especially love this point, about Johnson's peak to Sandy Koufax's peak:

Koufax from 1963 to 1966 famously went 97-27 (.782 winning percentage) with a 1.86 ERA (a 172 ERA+ -- meaning his ERA was 72 percent better than the average pitcher of his time) and he averaged 307 strikeouts per year.

Johnson from 1995 to 2002 went 143-44 (.765 winning percentage) with a 2.61 ERA (a 177 ERA+ -- meaning his ERA was 77 percent better than the average pitcher of his time) and he averaged 302 strikeouts per year (despite missing most of the 1996 season).


In an otherwise great column, though, it's a shame that the leave out one of Randy Johnson's absolute career highlights.

Zito

Man, Zito just can't buy a break.

He's actually pitching very well this year, with a 3.62 ERA. Which? Gives him a record of 1-4.

The Giants are playing pretty well. I didn't think they'd be a .500 team. The problem is scoring. They're third from the bottom of the National League in runs.

Randy Johnson

I am looking forward to Randy Johnson getting win 300. He's now at 298.

Two years ago, I doubted he'd get to 300.

Barring injury, the Very Large Unit will get win 300 in the next few weeks. Very cool. Then there will be another slew of articles about how we'll never see another 300 game winner, just like there were when Glavine got to 300. In 2007. (Note the Sports Illustrated article I linked to, which has a quote from Bobby Cox about Tom Glavine: "Tommy will be the last 300-game winner ever." Thanks, Bobby.)

Rickey!

This is exciting news. Rickey Henderson, wearing an outstanding shirt, toured the Hall of Fame prior to his induction.

As I've mentioned before, Rickey Henderson is as obvious a Hall of Famer as we will ever see in our lifetimes. My only surprise is that some voters didn't vote for the greatest leadoff hitter in history.

But that's not why I'm giddy. Obviously, it's for Rickey's speech. I've never looked forward to a Hall of Fame induction speech as much as I have to this one. Expectations are sky high.

Am I asking too much? Perhaps. But we should not temper our high hopes, not when we're talking about him. After all, Rickey is the greatest: