I think the new Iraqi government is going to crack down hard. I would guess that they will take this too far, and someone (I have no idea who) will try to seize control. I hope I'm very wrong, because that would lead to lots of bloodshed and possibly civil war. So far, I've been surprised. There have not (yet) been outright fighting by the Kurds--instead just a low level insurgency between the Kurds and the Turkomen. If the Kurds are smart, they'll wait until the US withdraws, then declare independence.


I'm still predicting that we "find" Osama October 15. I'm open to other predictions, though.